The general rule of thumb for drafting in the first round is 1/3 of players become studs, 1/3 become average major leaguers, and 1/3 are complete busts. At draft time, Craig Hansen seemed destined for the top 1/3. He had a fastball that could constantly reach the mid-90s and a slider that some scouts rated as an 80. By most accounts, Hansen was going to be the Red Sox closer by mid-2006. But after several weeks into 2008, Hansen is nowhere to be seen and fans are left asking why?
Craig Hansen was a stud in college. His last season at St. Johns, Hansen posted a 1.68 ERA over 64.1 innings. He was striking out 11.89 batters per 9 innings and walking just 2.80. After this strong campaign, the Red Sox selected him 26th overall in the 2005 draft. He was sandwiched between top prospects Matt Garza and Colby Rasmus. Within that season, Hansen was up in Boston pitching down the stretch run. He only participated in 4 games and was less than impressive. At the time, most thought that he needed some more seasoning but could still contribute to the 2006 club.
Hansen started the 2006 season in Portland. He only needed to pitch 11 innings before the Red Sox thought he was ready for AAA Pawtucket. At Pawtucket, Hansen pitched 36 innings with an ERA of 2.75. Once again, this was enough for the Red Sox to promote him to Boston where he struggled again. In 38 innings, Hansen posted a 6.63 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. His strikeouts were down and walks were up. He just did not look the same.
2007 saw the Red Sox take a new approach with Hansen. Instead of rushing him from level to level, the Red Sox decided to let him have the whole season at Pawtucket. While it took a few months for the Red Sox to see any fruits of their labor, come July Hansen started to be himself again. In July, Hansen pitched 15 innings with a 1.80 ERA. He bettered that in August were he pitched 6.1 shutout innings.
The Red Sox stood fast with the strategy did not promote him in September after the Paw Sox season was over. This may have been the best thing the Red Sox have done for his development since drafting him. Instead of joining the Red Sox, Hansen pitched in the Fall Instructional League and did very well. In 5 innings he struck out 8 batters and only walked one. Pitching against some of the best known prospects in baseball, this was a very encouraging several weeks.
One important turning point may have been the surgery Hansen underwent this off-season. Hansen had surgery to correct his sleep apnea. It was believed that the sleep apnea was hindering his ability to rebound from game to game. As a reliever, there is nothing more important than the ability to recover after a night of pitching. While the surgery set his winter work out program back a few weeks, the surgery is proving to be well worth the time.
As of Saturday morning, Hansen has pitched 9.1 shut out innings. He has allowed only 3 walks and 2 hits. Over that same time, he has struck out 10 batters and managed a 63% groundball rate. For Hansen, those last stats are the most important. He needs to be striking batters out and keeping the ball on the ground. That may seem elementary but it is especially important for Hansen.
Now that the season is in full swing and the Red Sox have had a chance to look at everyone, they have to be asking themselves if Hansen is a better option than Mike Timlin or Julian Tavarez. Hansen is defiantly younger and cheaper than both. That being said, age and cost are not the only two factors in making personnel decisions. Experience and consistency are important, which Hansen has little of.
Can the Red Sox expect much from Hansen this season? I believe so. Even when he has struggled, a good deal of that can be attributed to bad luck. He often suffers from an abnormally high BABIP and frequently his FIP is lower than his ERA. He is the type of pitcher that can have a strikeout percentage in the high 20s and a groundball percentage in the low 60s.
While his slider may never live up to that 80 billing it had coming out of college, it is still a plus pitch. Like real estate, Hansen is all about location. If he can stay ahead in the count and work the strike zone he still has all the makings of a top flight setup man. Complementing him with Papelbon and Delcarmen, the Red Sox have a bullpen that can be strong for years to come. It is time for the Red Sox to give him another chance.
(Hey guys, come check out more of my stuff at Sox on Deck – Dave B.)
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