David Pauley’s Big Day

By Andrew Lipsett
I’ve been writing about the minors a fair amount lately (a trend which will continue Saturday as I preview the upcoming amateur draft), and tomorrow night we’ll get to see a product of that system: David Pauley, a RHP most recently with the Portland Sea Dogs, has been called up to start Wednesday’s game with both David Wells and Lenny DiNardo unavailable due to injury. Evan already wrote a short scouting report on Pauley, but I wanted to flesh it out a bit.
As Evan wrote, David Pauley is a 23 year old RHP. Sox Prospects.com lists Pauley as the 13th best overall prospect and the 7th best pitching prospect in the Sox system, while Baseball America ranked him at 16 overall in their offseason rundown of the Sox system. He doesn’t feature overwhelming stuff – a fastball that lives around 90, along with what are described as excellent offspeed pitches, a changeup and a curve. His control has been very good over the last 1+ season with Portland, walking 2.12 batters every 9 innings – a mark that has been noticeably better than his career mark previous to joining the Sox organization before the 2005 season. Though his potential ceiling appears to be a 4th or 5th starter at best, Pauley has shown the ability to cope with each new minor league level he has reached; he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but his totals are at least reasonable, with a (pre-06) K/9 of 7.25. Pauley has always given up a few too many hits – over one an inning – despite a low HR total; though it’s been shown that BAA on balls in play doesn’t have a lot of weight on the major league level, that’s not necessarily the case in the minors, and Pauley’s high total is a cause for concern. Baseball America writes that Pauley doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses, which contributes to his high BABIP.
David Pauley was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 8th round of the 2001 amateur draft, out of Longmont High School in Longmont, CO. At the age of 18, Pauley began his pro career with Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League (also on that club was current Padres 2B Josh Barfield). Pauley didn’t fare well, going 4-9 in 15 starts over 69 innings, with a 6.00 ERA, 53 K’s, and 24 walks. Still, his repertoire was enough to get him to the Northwest League Eugene Emeralds in 2002, and at the age of 19 he had a breakout year; over 80 innings, he drastically reduced his walk rate (only 18 in 2002) and saw a significant drop in his ERA – down to 2.81 in his first full season.
From there, Pauley advanced a stage every year: in 2003 with the Fort Wayne Wizards (low-A), Pauley took another big step in his development, cracking 100 innings for the first time while striking out nearly a batter an inning (117 K’s in 117.7 IP). This would prove to be by far his highest K total, and it would be accompanied by a return to normalcy in his walk rate (38 over the same span).
2004 saw Pauley take on the High A California League, and hit a speed bump with the Lake Elsinore Storm; his rate stats all took hits, with his K/9 rate falling from 8.95 in 2003 to 7.51 in 2004 (though that was still significantly better than his 2002 and 2003 numbers) while his walk rate – 2.91 per 9 innings in 2003, 3.51 in 2004 – rose.
In the offseason between 2004 and 2005, Pauley was traded, along with Ramon Vazquez and Jay Payton, to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Dave Roberts. Pauley is the only member of that trade still with the organization (both Payton and Vazquez were traded by mid-2005). He began 2005 with a promotion to AA and the Portland Sea Dogs, where he joined an all-star rotation featuring Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester. Pauley was the #3 starter on that staff, and led Portland in IP with 156. Though his K rate declined again, to 6 per 9 innings, his walk rate dropped impressively, to below 2.
Though many expected Pauley to be promoted to AAA Pawtucket to open 2006, the Sox opted to leave him at Portland to begin the season. To this point in the season, Pauley has shown that he’s advanced quite well, and has bettered his competition to the tune of a 2.31 ERA over 60 innings, with 47 K’s and 17 walks over that span.
Make no mistake; giving Pauley the ball tomorrow is less a statement of support by the organization than it is an emergency solution. With Toronto’s powerful right-handed hitters, calling up either Abe Alvarez or Jon Lester from Pawtucket would be a mistake, and the schedules simply didn’t match for any of Pawtucket’s starters. Still, Pauley is the most advanced starting prospect the Sox have beyond Lester and Alvarez, and at 23 is on the cusp of moving to AAA, just one stop from the majors. Though it’s likely that Pauley will be headed back to Portland after tomorrow’s game, a strong outing at the major league level – and especially against a tough lineup like Toronto’s – would certainly open some eyes a little wider.
Good luck, David, and congrats on your MLB debut.