December to Remember: The Hot Streak and Moving Forward

I needed to step away for a little bit to let the final victory of 2015 sink in. I definitely got caught up in the post-game hype, it was impossible not to if you were in the building. The invading mass of Quebecers were turned back empty handed. First place was ripped away from their team, and given to our Cats. After years of essentially meaningless games between these two teams, filled with Habs fans in Sunrise, this win was gratifying. That win also capped off the best month in franchise history. Things have not been this good in 20 years.

Think about it, back to the last few seasons. Think about when the Panthers played a big, closely contested game with significant implications on the line. Did the Panthers of recent memory win that game? No. They may have put up a fight, but they ultimately went away with a wimper. In 2012-13 and 2013-14, they were simply not good enough. In 2014-15, they were better, but they could not find a way to seal the deal. Not so in that game against the Canadiens.

The Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr line has looked flat out unstoppable. Barkov in particular has looked otherworldly. You could see his potential the last couple of years, the skills were there, you just asked yourself when would he put it all together, and how would that look? I think we are starting to see what that looks like. If the early returns are any indication, Panther fans are in for a treat in Barkov over the next decade.

However, I wanted to get away from the hype a little bit, so I could come back to a centered state, and get a measured take on this team. It took well over a day, and then some New Year’s merriment, but I was finally able to get there. What I found was a team that gives me hope, despite some reservations.

I’d like to start by pointing out that, yes, this past month is patently unsustainable. Hot streaks are unsustainable by their nature and we do not need stats to know that, they merely confirm what we already know. There are few teams in NHL history who have maintained a .786 points percentage, and nearly all of them were dynastic Montreal Canadiens teams from many years ago. A 102.9 PDO for the Panthers in the month of December tells us that Panther goaltenders were saving more shots than normal, and Panther skaters were connecting on more shots than normal. That’s not an earth shattering revelation. We can reasonably expect that the Panthers will likely not turn in another month like this.

That’s okay though, they don’t need to go .786 the rest of the way to make it to the Playoffs. A .555 performance will get the Panthers to 96 points, something which sounds totally doable for this team to me.

Now, let’s take a look at the underlying shot attempt numbers, which do provide some illumination. On the season, the Panthers score adjusted CF% is at 48.6, with their raw attempt rates at 46.8 CF/60 (2nd worst) and 50.2 CA/60 (8th best). In a nutshell, the 2015-16 Panthers are pretty good at defending on the whole, and very lousy at generating a sustained attack. On the recent hot streak though, the Panthers buckled down on defense, big time.

In the Month of December, the Panthers came in with a score adjusted CF% of 51.9, and raw attempt totals at 45.6 CF/60 and 45.1 CA/60. You will no doubt notice that the Panthers are generating a similar amount of shots to before, so there has been little change in the the team’s attack. Where the Panthers have truly shined are on defense. With the drain of a Willie Mitchell-Erik Gudbranson defensive pairing gone, and Dave Bolland no where to be found, the Panthers have been able to go from being very good at suppression shots to being superb. All five main blueliners (read: not Petrovic, Kampfer, and Olsen), for example, finished the month of December above 50% in score-adjusted CF%.

In essence, the Panthers became a more exciting version of the New Jersey Devils (All hail low event hockey!). The concern moving forward is, thusly, can the Panthers manage to increase their shot generation without hurting their suppression? What needs to happen for the Panthers increase their generation? Let’s see how generation looked in December.

The Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr line, predictably, lead the way. The trio generated 58.9 CF/60 when put together in the month of December, a very healthy number. The same can be said for the second line of Jokinen-Trocheck-Smith, which generated 55.2 CF/60 as a trio. This is exactly what you want and expect from your best players.

The problems start once you move away from those two lines. The third line of Pirri-Knight-Shaw was at just 38.1 CF/60 (30.8 CA/60 in 33:05 TOI), and with Derek MacKenzie at center that line generated 36.9 CF/60 (33.8 CA/60 in 19:31 TOI). They did a fine job of suppressing shots though, so their lack of shot generation did not hurt as much. The fourth line is another story however.

Individually, the four forwards who typically participate on the fourth line did not look all that great despite the hot streak. This is what their generation and suppression looked like in December:

That’s not good, at all. At least the third line was able to compensate for their lack of generation, this is just getting flat out wrecked. Given that Gerard Gallant is a reputed line roller, that means the fourth line gets more ice time as the distribution ends up more balanced. As a result, you get more of this, and less of what the other lines are giving you. If the Panthers are to move on with continued success, they will need to do one of two things: engage in line rolling less often, or find a way to get more out of that fourth line. The return of Nick Bjugstad could help, likely moving Vincent Trocheck down to the third line center spot. That should help elevate that line and give the Panthers three good lines. Its just a matter of solidifying that fourth line from there.

Another thing the Panthers will need to do is find more rest for Roberto Luongo. The 36 year old netminder has been crazy good for the Panthers all season long. The issue though is that you’ve had a 36 year old goaltender play 30 of 37 games so far this season. Though Montoya has been good thus far, he has not been trusted enough to play more games. This is a problem. If Luongo is to be fresh for a playoff run, as we all hope, he needs a decreased workload. The rub is if the Panthers cannot rely on their backup fully, then they may not be able to give Luongo the rest he needs without surrendering too many points in a playoff race. Seven points separate first from six in the Atlantic heading into action on Saturday. Even a short lull could send a team tumbling down the standings.

Despite these reservations, the Panthers are still heading in the right direction. Though the results were unsustainably high in December, the underlying numbers show they largely did not get caved in the same way other PDOverachievers have in the past. If the Panthers can add some depth to their lineup in the new year, they stand a good chance at chugging along the rest of the year.