Chances are, the Angels won’t be making any significant moves this August, now that the trade deadline has passed. But what many fans originally believed to be a strength (the pitching) has now come into question. Eventually, the offseason will come upon us, and for 29 teams, it’ll come in disappointing fashion. With the Angels’ lead in the Wild Card dwindling, and their inability to retake the division from the stumbling Astros, the Angels offense has come into serious question as well.
The Angels already played the free agency game when they acquired Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and obviously, these haven’t worked out the way they’d hoped. Being in a cash-strapped situation, chances are their new GM will be under pressure to build an immediate winner and also find a way to get along with both Arte Moreno and Mike Scioscia while maintaining the necessary power to not be labeled a puppet. Not the most envious position, and likely exactly why the Angels won’t be able to attract any of the better GM candidates on the market.
But they need offense, and if Jerry Dipoto did one thing in particular right while he was with the Angels, it’s acquire pitching depth. The turn around itself was somewhat inspiring to see really. In just two short years, they went from having no pitching depth and miserable performances in the majors to one of the better major league staffs with more pitching prospects than just about any team in the game.
But does this mean the Angels can afford to sacrifice this depth to acquire the necessary offense to compete? Is there such thing as too much pitching?
The Angels, like most major league teams, like to operate in what is called a three-year window, meaning that when they’re planning for the future, they attempt to project what their team may look like in three years (2018). It’s also believed that operating with a seven-man pitching staff is ideal because spot starts will inevitably need to be made. So let’s look at the current staff and see where it projects.
- Garrett Richards – Final year before arbitration. Garrett is the staff ace, and in three years, he’ll likely be in line for a major payday. Hopefully the Angels will be the team to give him that.
- Jered Weaver – Free agent after 2016 season. Given his diminished velocity and age, Weaver will not be returning to the Angels after that.
- C.J. Wilson – Free agent after 2016 season. He’s shut down for the year and may or may not be ready to go next year. Safe to say, he isn’t part of their three-year plan.
- Matt Shoemaker – Under contract through 2019. Shoemaker is quickly becoming a mainstay of this staff. While he isn’t the solid #2 starter he emerged as last year, with somewhat diminished velocity and regression back to the norm we’re seeing Shoemaker for what he really is, which is a #4/5 starter.
- Hector Santiago – Free agent after 2017. Santiago’s game has reached an entirely new level this season, which is great, but no one in their right mind actually thinks it’s sustainable. Even then, it’s undeniable that Santiago is a young, inexpensive, lefty that slots favorably into the #4/5 slot in the rotation. He may be re-signed, but that will largely depend on how the Angels look in a couple years, which we’ll get into.
So as we can see, the Angels are likely looking at three vacancies. Some will be filled immediately, like this year, and some may wait. Let’s look at who the Angels have to fill these vacancies.
- Andrew Heaney – Andrew has quickly emerged as a legitimate #2/3 starter at the major league level and most peripherals seem to support such an assessment. He’ll be a real asset for the Angels moving forward.
- Tyler Skaggs – Skaggs was better than his numbers indicated before the Tommy John bug bit last year. He isn’t the front of the rotation starter some may though he’d turn into, but he looked well on his way. He should slot into the #3/4 spot in the rotation in the future, with the chance for more.
- Nick Tropeano – The Angels have used Tropeano as their #6/7 starter this season, which is both cool and frustrating at the same time. It’s cool to have that depth. No one has a starter as good as Tropeano waiting in the wings like that. It’s frustrating because he really should be the majors. He should compare favorable to someone like Tyler Skaggs in terms of production.
So if we assume that three years from now, no prospects pan out, the Angels are still operating with a staff of Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker and Tropeano, which is still a well above average rotation any way you shake it. But prospects will pan out, it’s inevitable, so let’s look at those.
- Sean Newcomb – He leads the minor leagues in strikeouts and generally regarded as the first or second best LHP prospect in the world right now. He’s young and has top of the rotation size and stuff. His ETA puts him in line for the majors by the end of next season or shortly thereafter.
- Chris Ellis – Ellis has quickly climbed the minor league ladder this season. Some scouts thought he had #2/3/4 starter type of stuff, but his collegiate resume just didn’t offer enough of a sure thing to pull the trigger on a first round pick. The Angels took that chance and just 22 years old, Ellis is in AA and holding his own. He should be a solid mid-rotation starter for the Angels, that should be ready to go by 2017.
- Nate Smith – Smith doesn’t have the stuff to project well in the majors, but he’s found plenty of minor league success as a crafty lefty. If that continues on into the majors, he should be a #4/5 starter.
- Jeremy Rhoades – Rhoades comes pre-loaded with an above average fastball, plus slider and an average or better changeup while featuring decent command of all three pitches. His mechanics are still being cleaned up, but it’s pretty reasonable to suspect he’ll be a major league caliber SP at some point.
- Grayson Long – Long was just drafted by the Angels and is still in Rookie Ball, but scouting have pegged him as a high floor-low ceiling collegiate pitcher that should climb the ladder quickly. He’ll likely begin the year at Inland Empire next season and finish in AA Arkansas. That puts him in line for a major league job around 2018 or 2019.
Basically, three years from now, the likeliest rotation will feature Richards, Newcomb and Heaney at the top of the rotation, which is as good as it gets among homegrown talent. The final two spots in the rotation based up reasonable success and project will likely be some combination of Skaggs and either Tropeano, Shoemaker or Ellis. If we assume it’s Shoemaker, that leaves the Angels with…..
- 10 viable starting pitchers three years from now.
- 9 starting pitchers under the age 30.
- Likely one of the better rotations in the game.
- More prospects from the 2016 and 2017 drafts.
If we assume that the Angels are indeed comfortable with narrowing this focus to a staff that is only seven deep instead of the unreasonably high, ten deep, they should have the freedom to trade THREE starting pitchers/prospects in their search for offense this winter.
Which pitchers they trade is entirely dependent upon the caliber of player they’re trading for. If they’re looking for a proven veteran all-star, that may mean they’ll have to trade Chris Ellis, Hector Santiago and Nick Tropeano. If they want a truly elite bat, that’ll likely cost Sean Newcomb. If they’re looking for more of an under the radar, Kole Calhoun type, perhaps simply Matt Shoemaker, Nate Smith and Jeremy Rhoades.
One thing is certain however. The Angels are one of the few major league teams with so much starting pitching now and in the future, that they can afford to part ways with a few and still have a very deep staff in three years.
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