Just a little over a month ago, the nation was starting to jump on the Portland Trail Blazers bandwagon. They were starting to get recognition as possibly one of the contenders in the West, some analysts were even picking them to advance to The Finals. This is all following a hot start to the season and a couple key acquisitions at the trade deadline in Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee.
A lot of that forward momentum came crashing down on the floor of the Moda Center when Wesley Matthews suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon. The even more troubling part was that was just the first major domino to fall. Following that injury LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his foot, Dorell Wright broke his hand, Afflalo strained his shoulder, Nicolas Batum suffered a knee contusion, and CJ McCollum and Chris Kaman both rolled their ankles. In this whole list of injuries, I’m surprised Blaze hasn’t broken a leg or that Mike Rice hasn’t rolled his ankle getting off the plane.
All of this combined has the Blazers sitting down two games to zero in the first round of the Playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz have been one of their toughest matchups the last couple years because of their tough style and nasty mentality. That has been magnified exponentially against the short-handed and crippled Blazers.
The odds are certainly not in the Blazers favor right now. Only 16 teams (out of 261) have ever come back from a 2-0 series deficit in a seven game series. That is 6.1%! Needless to say, that is not very good at all.
Seven out of the eight series in the NBA Playoffs are currently at 2-0. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com the chance of one of those teams down by two games advancing to the next round is 45%. That means there is worse than a coin flip chance that 1 of the 7 teams will advance to the next round.
Unfortunately, in all likelihood, the Blazers are done. That does not mean that they won’t win a game or two when the series returns to Portland and turn it into a competitive series. I think the Blazers are going to get a bit healthier before Saturday, and frankly they are pissed. They have played poorly on the biggest stage in the world and have heard all of the scrutiny that comes along with that. They will bounce back and compete the way they have all season. But the chances of them winning 4 out of 5 are slim to none, and slim just got beat up by Robin Lopez.
With all of this said, and the Blazers’ season a little over a week from likely being over, there will be a lot of discussion about whether this was a successful season despite not advancing to the second round of the playoffs after last year’s run.
Everybody will have their different opinion, their different slant on it. For some they will point at not getting as far as the team did last year as a disappointment. Well The Miami Heat were in The Finals last year, players move around and get hurt, then they miss the playoffs this year. A little perspective helps ease the pain. Some folks in Portland will think it was a successful season because the team won 50+ games and had two All-Stars. I tend to fit in the second school of thought, thinking that this was a successful season and that bad things happened at the worst times, all season long.
Honestly, the biggest game of the season hasn’t even happened yet. That game isn’t going to be refereed or televised. The game that is soon coming for the Blazers will be led by the ever-charismatic General Manager Neil Olshey and, in my mind, will determine just how successful this season was.
Basically the Blazers have Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard, Batum, and McCollum under contract next season. Outside of those guys, they are either soon-to-be free agents, have player or team options, or have training camp contracts. Obviously you can’t compete with four guys. Olshey is going to have to work some major magic to hold this team together.
The key signing this off-season is the four-time All-Star Aldridge. He is arguably the best power forward in the entire NBA and will get a lot of attention from teams around the league this summer. Last summer Aldridge said he plans to sign his extension this summer with Portland and wants to be the best Blazer ever. But in today’s sporting landscape, nothing is solidified until the pen in on the paper.
There have been rumblings in the media about the possibility of Aldridge choosing to forgo the more money Portland will be able to offer him and play for a team closer to home. Jason Quick of the Oregonian really got that discussion going earlier this week.
The discussion of what is going to happen this coming offseason was advanced even further on Thursday when John Canzano of the Oregonian talked more about the decisions that Olshey is about to face and whether or not this is the end of an era in Portland.
All of this off-season talk and this season hasn’t even ended. Usually I would be 100% against looking ahead when the Blazers are still in the hunt. But this off-season is different. This is possibly the biggest off-season in the 45 year history of this storied franchise.
Olshey has more money to play with this off-season than he ever has as a General Manager. That is usually a good thing. That usually means that a team can see what free agents they can bring in to bolster their rosters and better their teams. But if it comes to that, and Olshey is needing to use his cap space to bring in free agents, that likely means that Aldridge and others have left Portland. If Olshey can sign the core of this team (Aldridge, Lopez, Matthews) there will be significantly less cap space left for this team.
The future of the Blazers lie in the negotiation rooms this summer and that is frightening for Rip City. The drama that plays out on the court can drive fans crazy, but at least they witness the whole thing. When it comes to the off-season, the not knowing is what tears at a fanbase. This is likely going to be a tough off-season for this fanbase, one way or another. Even if Aldridge stays, the media coverage of his decision will be insane. He will likely test free agency. The unnamed sources will report that he is leaning one way or another. Twitter will be ablaze with rumors and rhetoric. It will all make it hard to sort it all out and find the truth.
In the end, this off-season will tell us all a lot about what this organization thought about this season. If the front office thought it was a success, they will do everything they can to keep this team together. If the front office was disappointed, they may look in a different direction in some places. If the players thought the season was a success, they will want to come back and be a part of what they have going on. If the players thought the season was a disappointment, they may look for teams that are more ready to contend.
As the Blazers play Saturday night and Monday night in the Moda Center, the fans and team both hope these aren’t the team’s last games in Portland this season. Once the final buzzer sounds on the 2014-2015 season, that is when the more important season starts, the off-season.
I have said all along that I think Aldridge is a Blazer for life. He can sign a bigger, and longer contract with the Blazers. He has a legitimate shot at being the best Trail Blazer in the history of the franchise. He is comfortable in this city that has fully embraced him.
But I have been wrong before, and I will be wrong again. I just hope I’m not wrong about Aldridge. He is the foundation of this team, and their only chance of true contention the next 3-4 years.
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