Through 21 games, the 8-13 Denver Nuggets find themselves in the unenviable position of sitting on the outside looking in at both a playoff spot and a top lottery pick, which brings us to a juncture in the season where the team has to reconsider their direction moving forward.
“Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results” – Albert Einstein
Since Carmelo Anthony left back in 2011, the Nuggets franchise has been without a bonafide superstar. In the two seasons immediately following Melo’s departure, George Karl was able to ride the wave of a fascinating combination of complimentary players to playoff appearances. Relying on Ty Lawson’s burst, Danilo Gallinari’s shooting, Kenneth Faried’s rebounding ferocity, Nene’s physicality, Arron Afflalo’s defense, and the veteran leadership of Andre Miller and Al Harrington, the Nuggets made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals, forcing the Lakers to play a deciding seventh game in the lockout shortened 2011-12 season. Following that deep playoff run, the 2012-13 regular season would successfully incorporate the two-way talents of Andre Iguodala to 57 wins only to falter in the first round of the playoffs to a brash young team out of the Bay Area. Iguodala would jettison his way to the team that took the Nuggets out and the rest as we say is history: that Warriors team has had a good deal of success, while every Nuggets season has been a different shade of disappointing. Perhaps it’s time to make some significant changes?
Let’s consider four specific and tangible ways to improve team.
Internal
Unfortunately for the Nuggets they have never seen their complete roster play a full game this season. The injury bug is a harsh reality in professional sports. Gary Harris began the season as the starting shooting guard, but a foot injury has left him sidelined after appearing in only five games. Will Barton started the season hot but missed a couple weeks of action before returning last week. Nikola Jokic recently sprained his left wrist and has missed a couple games. Danilo Gallinari has already missed three. Without a large sample size of any actual rotation being established, coach Michael Malone has been forced into mixing and matching his lineups. As a recent hire and under the current circumstances, it has become impossible to evaluate Malone’s effect on the team, and there are not any particularly superior options available to replace him. The prudent play for management would be to allow Malone a couple seasons with his players to establish a rapport. The assumption is that ownership isn’t changing, which means any internal changes not relating to the roster would be in management. Tim Connelly has been acting General Manager and Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations since 2013, which coincides with the last few seasons of mediocrity. Connelly does not have a symbolic moment of disaster. Emmanuel Mudiay has been wildly inconsistent and generally disappointing and could ultimately become that symbol. However, Connelly has some legitimate bright spots on his resume, in particular the Jokic pick. Nevertheless, owner Stan Kroenke certainly has the power and wit to pull the plug if he wants. There is a potential candidate currently in the midst of a gap year with the aptitude and guts to take drastic measures to turn things around. Would Kroenke consider it?
As for the actual roster, coach Malone is currently tinkering with one experiment that needs to stop – the twin tower lineup of Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Malone has to settle on playing the better player (Jokic) with his starters and letting Nurkic cook second units. Faried is a solid option to start next to Jokic, as his role of staying active and being a rebounding machine is clearly defined. Gallinari is the obvious starter at small forward, which leaves the biggest question of what the backcourt rotation should look like. Considering all things equal and accounting for everyone’s health, I believe Jamal Murray is a key piece for the future of the franchise moving forward. His recent offensive performances have made it clear in my eyes that he should establish himself as a primary scorer in the league. Murray’s cerebral approach to the game should result in continued strides to his playmaking skills, which would allow him to play point guard in this league. He is only 19 years old, but already reminds me of Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard, who came into their rookie seasons with more years of seasoning thanks to longer college careers. Murray has to move into the starting lineup by the midpoint of the season, preferably as the starting point. The best candidate to fill out the final starting position is Gary Harris. Mudiay will form an extremely athletic second unit backcourt with Barton, who will carry the scoring load. This means a starting lineup of Murray-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Jokic will be followed with a bench mob of Mudiay-Barton-Chandler-Hernangomez-Nurkic. The purpose of this lineup isn’t to pursue a playoff spot, but rather to develop good habits for the core pieces of the franchise moving forward. That would be something tangible and transparent for evaluation.
Trade
The most direct and aggressive method to overhauling the roster and changing the team direction is making a major trade. The option then is whether to be a buyer or a seller. Buying a transcendent player with several years left on their contract like Paul George feels futile, especially considering the market that is Denver, Colorado. Attempting to add players like Cousins or John Wall, who may be likely to end up as rentals, is not a good idea – not when it requires giving up all their best assets and the end result isn’t a real shot at a title. Trading for Cousins could essentially turn the Nuggets into the Kings if Sacramento bled them. Therefore, the best route might be trading players like Wilson Chandler to contending teams that need to fill out their rosters with reliable professionals, or my real suggestion is pursuing a blockbuster swap of assets with another franchise itching to switch things up.
On the face of the deal it would seem giving up three starters in Mudiay, Harris, and Faried along with their most reliable bench player in Chandler for the Suns’ backup point guard, two rookies, and a possible bust top draft pick in Len is foolish – perhaps for both sides. On the flip side, it could be a single move like this that immediately accomplishes what Hinkie was doing with his Process in Philly for several years. Letting go of Mudiay is a mirror image of Hinkie cutting bait with MCW. Mudiay has not shown the ability to be a reliable starting point guard in the league, let alone for a team eventually attempting to contend for a title. Gary Harris is a solid role player, but by the time the Nuggets are good he will be demanding a contract extension and his role may shrink with the development of Murray and Barton still on the team. Faried and Chandler are valuable NBA rotation players that have been circulating in trade rumors for several seasons and the thought here is that the Suns would hope for them to make an immediate impact in Arizona. The benefits for the Nuggets are multi-fold. It would immediately secure the Nuggets a top-five pick in this highly-touted rookie draft, which should give them a shot at snagging a superb point guard prospect. In the meantime a change of scenery would allow Brandon Knight to get back to his solid playmaking form of previous seasons. Between Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender the Nuggets would be looking at two power forward prospects with extremely high upside, meaning if even only one pans out the return on investment would be validated. The result of this trade allows the Nuggets to focus their attention on acquiring backcourt and wing pieces to surround Murray with and continue to develop their five young big men. Perhaps this is a scary yet necessary first step towards establishing a clear direction for the franchise moving forward. Also an easier smaller trade would simply require swapping Faried and Mudiay for Knight and either Chriss or Bender if both teams get cold feet on the bigger overhaul.
Draft
Hopefully the Jamal Murray selection will help negate some of the P.T.S.D. the front office might be still dealing with from the Mudiay pick last year. Generally speaking the Nuggets have done a commendable job finding valuable talent throughout the draft, in particular the recent picks of Jokic and Nurkic. If there were ever a good draft to invest into it is the upcoming 2017 one, which will have several backcourt gems littered throughout the lottery. Keeping their own draft pick will be essential. Sitting on the Grizzlies draft pick may also prove resourceful especially with the unfortunate injuries hitting Memphis with Mike Conley out for an extended period of time and Parsons perhaps missing the rest of the season with recurring knee pain. With all of their duplicative roster talent, it will certainly be an option to acquire another non-lottery first near the trade deadline. Imagine the Nuggets selecting at 4, 15, and 24..the possible haul would be something like Lonzo Ball or Josh Jackson, Malik Monk or O.G. Anunoby, and Grayson Allen or Josh Hart. That collection of talent would give the Nuggets a treasure chest of riches with several shots of uncovering some golden stars.
Free Agency
Let’s be honest, we are talking about the Denver Nuggets. They aren’t acquiring top-tier talent in the free agency market, and overpaying for secondary “stars” by luring them with max contracts would only steer the team back to mediocrity. Free agency should only be used as a tool to fill out roster holes with role players. When the roster is rebuilding and in flux, this usually means steady veterans that provide a specific set of skills as well as a locker-room presence that positively impacts the young kids. Anything else with regards to predicting which free agent to target is nothing less than wild speculation this early into the season.
Conclusion
So what should they do? Keep Malone, build around Murray, trade Mudiay before his value implodes, hire Hinkie in the summer, and stay very very alert: you never know when a team wants to trade CJ McCollum or Nerlens Noel for a buffet of solid role players.
Anything less would be insane.
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