In all of the chatter about the Red Sox’s 2008 season, there has been one clear trend: people expect Daisuke Matsuzaka to turn into a solid No. 2 starter, instead of the No. 3 he was last year.In his first year in the majors, Dice-K won 15 games while throwing for 204.2 innings, 201 strikeouts, 191 hits and 80 walks. For the first half of the year, he came as advertised as he went 10-6 in 119.2 IP and a 3.84 ERA. He stumbled the second half, showing a propensity for losing complete control of all of his pitches for an extended period of time and went 5-6, 85 IP, 5.19 ERA. Now, Dice-K will look to maintain his first-half consistency all year long.
Can he do it?
Bill James and CHONE projections are optimistic about what Dice-K can do for us in 2008. James has Matsuzaka at a 3.54 ERA, 30 starts, 193.0 IP. CHONE has him at a 3.94 ERA and 196.0 IP. Marcel is a hater, and says Dice-K will have a 4.33 ERA in 162.0 IP. And everyone’s favorite projection system, PECOTA, has him at 191.0 IP in 30 starts with a 3.90 ERA.
Overall, not bad. Three out of four believe he’ll have an ERA under 4.00 and innings over 190
Obviously, a lot will have to do with how Matsuzaka stays healthy the entire year and how much his body responds to the additional endurance required to complete a full season. With his mind at ease with the familiarity of the team and league and his body having been through the rigors of a full season at the young age of 27, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to adjust.
I believe that the Red Sox are going to be far more judicious in how they use Dice-K — especially since Curt Schilling is slated to return the second half of the year and we will have Julian Tavarez in the bullpen for a backup (and David Pauley in Triple-A).
How would they do this? Perhaps by having him skip a start here and there or going on the disabled list with a minor injury.
Why?
Josh Beckett thinks it’s what helped him in the postseason.
Beckett, who started his throwing program Jan. 3, admits that the playoff run most likely wouldn
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
