Does Samuel pass the Bailey test?

The Washington Redskins show every indication of trading their first round NFL pick this weekend. While they harbor hope of moving up in the Calvin Johnson sweepstakes, there is a faction at Redskins Park who hope to see the team trade down for more picks. With the light regard the Skins have shown for both draft picks and rookies, trading the pick for a veteran player cannot be dismissed.

Disgruntled Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel is on the Redskins radar screen. Former Redskin Champ Bailey is acknowledged as the gold standard cornerback. How does Samuel compare? Lets take a look at the numbers by comparing Samuel to Bailey. For good measure, lets throw in Nate Clements, the $80 Million man, Dre’ Bly, the target of an early trade attempt, and Redskins corners Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers. We’ll look at performance over the 2005 and 2006 seasons to average out spikes in performance.

Next, lets rank the players by average tackles over both seasons.

Stats: NFL.com

Clements two year performance is near that of Bailey. Carlos Rogers is a rising star who would show better if he snagged a few more interceptions. His numbers are comparable to Asante Samuel’s, when factoring that he only became a starter in 2006. I have high hopes for him this season. Samuel puts up better numbers than Shawn Springs, owing to his youth and better health. Bly’s pedestrian numbers suggest that he might not have been the upgrade the Skins hoped for.

Shawn Springs only played nine games in 2006. When he was healthy in 2004 and ’05, the Redskins had a feared defense with Springs as a shut down corner. He should start the season in good health. At age 32, it’s a risk that he stays that way. Asante Samuel could fill that role. Whether the Redskins snag him is an open question.

The Patriots play hardball in contract negotiations. They may call Samuel’s bluff on any holdout. The Redskins have to be concerned with Samuels contract demands. He is asking for a Nate Clements-type deal over the first three years. The Redskins, with under $4 Million estimated cap room and rookies to sign, might find Samuel just out of reach.

Figures lie and liars figure. Stats are half the story. To assess Samuel, the Men of Ashburn also need to look at tape of his play. By now, they’ve certainly done so.