Chip Kelly has won conference championships with two vastly different quarterbacks. Jeremiah Masoli was a fullback who could throw a little. Darron Thomas, underappreciated by many fans despite a 23-3 record as a starter and 66 career touchdown passes, had limitations as both a runner and a pocket passer but excelled in three areas: toughness, leadership, and distributing the football.
Now the job falls to two relatively untested underclassmen. Oregon has all the elements of another conference title team and even a contender for the national title, but the biggest single question mark on their roster is inexperience at football’s most vital position. Bryan Bennett and Marcus Mariota are both better throwers than both of their predecessors, and both are nimble runners (Mariota is Oregon’s fastest quarterback. Bennett averaged 8.7 yards a carry in his 8 appearances last year) but neither has played in a big game since high school. How will they handle the USC Trojans and The Los Angeles Coliseum on national tv?
Nobody knows, but there are some clues. Bennett came off the bench twice last year in games where the offense was floundering and led wins. The Ducks trailed by a field goal to Arizona State when Thomas had to leave the game just after the half, and led narrowly over underdog Washington State when Bennett got the call to take over at halftime. Both times BB looked cool and capable, combining good decisions in the passing game, a couple of timely scrambles and capable management of the zone read and the offense to pilot big wins. He did the job under pressure, and as smooth and poised as Marcus Mariota looked in the Spring Game with a red jersey on, Bennett’s game experience is far more significant.
The Ducks can win with either one of them. They are both sharp with good arms and good feet, and the eventual starter will be blessed with some tremendous weapons around him. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas are electrifying gamebreakers. The puzzle at receiver will sort itself out–there’s too much talent available there for two or three to fail to emerge. Look for Rahsaan Vaughn, Josh Huff, DAT, B.J. Kelley and Colt Lyerla to form the nucleus of an improved passing attack.
The biggest asset the Oregon offense has is a deep and experienced offensive line. Jake Fisher, Hroniss Grasu, Carson York and Nick Cody lead a unit that is the engine and drive train of the Duck attack, Fisher and Grasu showing great promise in their first year. Ryan Clanton, Jake Long, Andre Yruretagoyena, Hamani Stevens and Karrington Armstrong will allow Steve Greatwood to mix and match and keep fresh, healthy bodies in the game. The impressive point totals and prolific offensive numbers happen because these guys know what they’re doing and do their jobs.
There are three chief worries. How quickly does the new quarterback achieve a comfort level operating the team? How well does the squad handle the competition and achieve consistency and execution on the field? Can the young starter avoid rookie mistakes? Conventional wisdom says a new quarterback will cost you a game or two in his first season. Thomas was remarkable in that aspect: as a first-year starter he threw just 9 interceptions against 30 td passes, and as a junior he improved to 7 ints and 33 tds. In 2010 he actually had a better quarterback rating, head-to-head, than every opposing qb on the schedule, including Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, and Cam Newton. Thomas tossed three tds against Stanford, four against USC that season, and passed for 363 yards against Auburn. To win another title, the Ducks need the same kind of clutch performance from BB or MM, but it isn’t a given. Reference Kelly after the ASU game, telling the media, “A quarterback is like a teabag. You never know what you have until you put him in hot water.”
Part of the statistical proficiency is the Oregon offense, which blesses a signal caller with simple throws and a 1800-yard tailback. Troy Aikman rode the same formula to the Hall of Fame. But playing quarterback in Kelly’s spread is about way more than the numbers; it requires tempo, rhythm and pace. Whoever starts has to provide stability, composure, and execution, or it all falls apart.
The other big worry is, how does the #2 guy handle being number 2? Oregon’s needed at least two quarterbacks in each of the last 7 seasons, and in ’07 and ’08, they started five different guys behind center. #3 is walk-on Dustin Haines or a true freshman. If Bennett or Mariota leave the team, say for San Diego State or the University of Hawaii, the outlook darkens a lot. There’s no waiver wire in college football, unless you are the USC Trojans.
National pundits have expressed concern also about the Ducks’ depth at running back. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas are tremendous talents, but Barner has missed games with injury in each of the last two seasons, and The Black Mamba is 5-9, 173. Both are fabulous in the open field, but can they take the pounding LMJ did in amassing 1805 yards on 247 carries, a sparkling 7.3 yard average?
The short answer is, better than you think. For one thing, the two of them will have about 30 carries where no one touches them. Barner’s been asked about the durability thing a hundred times by now, and by game four it will be up to a thousand. With NFL aspirations of his own bet that he’s spent a good chunk of the off season training and steeling his body for the challenge of being the lead back, and proving he can be an every-down back.
The whole durability thing underestimates Kelly’s genius as an innovator. Neither Thomas or Barner will have to carry the ball 30 times a game like James did. The Visor has assembled an impressive stable of speedy playmakers, and he’ll find ways to utilize them optimally. Expect incoming freshman Byron Marshall to contribute, and versatile athletes like Josh Huff and Bralon Addison can be employed to take part of the load also. People forget how dynamic Huff is with the ball in his hands. As a freshman he had an 85-yard run, a 57-yard pass reception, and an 80-yard kick return.
Newcomer Marshall has the strength and explosiveness to contribute right away at the college level:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=HSwMQFnkBRw
The Oregon offense adapts and evolves, like all forward-thinking operations do. With a favorable early season schedule to work out the rotation and tune the attack, it’s very likely they’ll be ready for the defense of their three-time title.
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