(PLEASE NOTE: THE ODDS EXPRESSED IN THIS COLUMN ARE ONLY BENEFICIAL IF YOU ARE PLACING BETS IN THE STATE OF NEVADA … or if you’re really tight with your mob contact “Lou the Bookie”.)
When it comes to sports gambling in this country, one thing I’ve found is that Las Vegas — the home and birth of many of the odds found on almost every website and almost every newspaper — can rush to judge certain things.
Last year, when the Philadelphia Eagles hired Chip Kelly as their head coach, Vegas set the over/under line for wins at 7 1/2. At the time, this was wishful thinking considering there was a new coach with a team that had only won four games in the previous season.
It turns out the Vegas minds were pretty clairvoyant as the Eagles went 10-6, but be honest. Who among us had the Eagles winning ten games last year? Brutal pessimism and being a realist led me to believe that six or seven was the max — not the eight games needed to win the bet.
This past week, Vegas has doubled down on their old habits after the announcement that LeBron James would be returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers after four years with the Miami Heat. Opening lines for the Cavs winning the title were set at 30/1 in the off chance that James actually would return. (If you bought that ticket, how happy are you right now?)
The announcement was made, and Vegas went into full scramble mode. Panic buttons were hit, and casino sports books hustled to get a more manageable line. At last check, the Cavaliers with LeBron James are favored at 4/1 and the favorites to win the 2014-2015 NBA Championship. Yes. LeBron James with the Cleveland Cavaliers featuring Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Andrew Wiggins (or potentially Kevin Love if he’s traded) are favored to win the title next year.
(Blank stare)
Okay. Settle down, Vegas.
LeBron James returning to the Cavaliers is the feel good story of the summer, but let’s not jump so quickly to declare the Cavs champions — or the favorites for that matter.
Looking up and down the roster, James has definitely upgraded from just about anything the Miami Heat could have provided him. He has an all-star point guard in Kyrie Irving, a potential superstar and All-NBA defender in Andrew Wiggins, and a young double-double machine in Tristan Thompson. Let’s not forget about young Dion Waiters who’s actually my choice for 6th Man of the Year this upcoming season.
LeBron James’ entourage with the Cleveland Cavaliers is every bit as good and full of potential as Vincent Chase’s in the first season of Entourage. It would not shock me in the least if the Cavs won the title. If you were asking me to bet Cleveland vs. “the field”, however, I’d be more inclined to take the field.
The one team in the Eastern Conference that poses the biggest threat to LeBron’s return to the throne is in Cleveland’s division — the Chicago Bulls. If — and this is the same large “if” as last season — Derrick Rose returns from his latest injury stint at 100%, the Bulls feature one of the most talented rosters in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls added Pau Gasol over the weekend, and a front court tandem of Gasol and two-time All-Star Joakim Noah is just deadly. The Bulls have basically become the Memphis Grizzlies of the Eastern Conference only more talented on the wings with Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, and rookie Doug McDermott. Put a 85-90 percent Derrick Rose with that group, and THAT’S my pick to come out of the Easter Conference next year — not Cleveland and its prodigal son.
The gentlemen at the United Center also have somewhat of an edge from a coaching standpoint. New Cavaliers head coach David Blatt HAS NEVER had this much pressure on him. How will he respond to an insane level of expectations? Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t necessarily have that problem.
Thibodeau already knows he holds a positive record against any team where LeBron James is on the roster. He knows how to defend him, and he knows how to win against him. It was like that when he was in Boston, and (for a time), it was like that for his first few seasons in Chicago. Thibodeau has just had horrible luck with his superstar point guard.
Horrible luck ravages the Central Division because the Indiana Pacers — another potential roadblock for LeBron James’s return home — are in a weird period of limbo. They may lose Lance Stephenson. Who knows what will become of Roy Hibbert? One thing is certain, though. Paul George is a superstar in this league. He’s definitely something you can build around, but the problem facing the Pacers is figuring out how to make the team better.
Indiana has been very quiet thus far in free agency, and no one has gotten even a shred of thought as to what they’re doing. If Stephenson returns, that would at least restore some confidence I have in the Pacers going forward, but figuring out what to make of Roy Hibbert is more complicated.
Making matters even more daunting for LeBron James and the Cavaliers potential run at hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy are … well … most of the Western Conference.
There’s the Oklahoma City Thunder who have a closing window of opportunity with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have been on the doorstep for the last three seasons, but an injury in the playoffs (Russell Westbrook one year, Serge Ibaka the next) or playing Derek Fisher in crunch time in the playoffs (horrible idea) has kept them out of the Finals. (The lack of an experienced second team also hurts.)
Next season the Thunder roll out with Reggie Jackson — who has another year under his belt and has become a very reliable backup PG to Westbrook — and their newest free agent acquisition, Anthony Morrow. Morrow makes Oklahoma City’s bench vastly more productive because of his ability to light it up from three. That’s a quality they’ve lacked since Kevin Martin left and James Harden before that.
Also waiting in the weeds in the Cavaliers rosey picture are the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are in prime position to win the West. They’re much younger than the next team to be explained in this column, and I like the addition of Spencer Hawes to spread the floor and set up some interesting high/low scenarios with either Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan.
Having the one of the three best point guards in the NBA (Chris Paul) and one of the best coaches (Doc Rivers) doesn’t hurt your case if you’re the Clippers, but the stink of Donald Sterling continues to waft through the executive offices. (That smell isn’t the BenGay or the Polident or anything like that. It’s the stench of racism and bigotry which are much more potent.)
Sterling (at the time of this column) is still fighting to maintain control of who can purchase the team. (I’m not sure why. The entire league wants him out, but I digress.)
Speaking of people wanting other people out, it’s probably true to say LeBron James never wants to see Tim Duncan or Gregg Popovich in an NBA Finals for the rest of his career. Timmy and Pop hold a 2-1 NBA Finals record against LeBron, and there’s a serious possibility the San Antonio Spurs will return to the NBA Finals for a third straight year if Oklahoma City or the Clippers can’t get their stuff together.
Say the Spurs get to the Finals again and meet LeBron James and these Cavaliers. Is it a foregone conclusion that the Cavaliers win? Absolutely not considering how the Spurs utterly dismantled the Heat this past NBA Finals.
Tim Duncan is still Tim Duncan — the Big Fundamental. Tony Parker is the best point guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is a reigning NBA Finals MVP and is coming into his own, and the Spurs always seem to find those players on the wings that no one else wants, but they make it work (see Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, Danny Green, etc.).
The rest of the Western Conference past those top three teams is also stacked when you throw in teams such as Golden State, Dallas (who’ve already beaten LeBron), Memphis, and Portland. (You heard me. Portland.)
LeBron James’ return to the Cleveland Cavaliers was absolutely the best decision he could make when it comes to his desire to win multiple championships. As great of a story it would be for the Cavs to win in year one of “The Return”, let’s not print those Cavaliers championship t-shirts just yet.
Settle down, everyone.
(Especially you, Vegas.)
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