Don’t Turn Off the Lights Quite Yet

We may have gotten ahead our selves here at Burning River Baseball. In post games over the past week, we have insinuated that the Indians have no chance at winning the division after losing four in a row to Detroit and Houston and almost no chance at winning the Wild Card. Thanks to a three game winning streak, Oakland’s collapse and the fact that the Royals and Tigers will play each other this weekend, that is no longer the situation.

The current situation is this; the Indians sit five games behind Detroit and 4.5 games behind Kansas City in the Central Division with an elimination number of six and four games behind Oakland and just three behind Seattle in the run for the second Wild Card (elimination number of seven). Kansas City also controls the top Wild Card, so unlike the last time we took a deep look into the Indians play-off odds, both Wild Cards are in play. Thanks to an epic collapse by the Athletics (5-15 in their last 20 games), what looked like a guarantee with a six game lead on August 27th, how now been pulled into doubt. This is great news for every other team involved as now, instead of six teams trying for two different play-off spots, seven teams are in the running for three. With both Baltimore and Los Angeles clinching their divisions early, the total focus in the American League is now on those three spots and the Indians finally have a decent chance to take one.

Each team left with a chance for the play-offs (the Tigers, Royals, Athletics, Mariners, Indians, Yankees and Blue Jays) has between ten and eleven games left, so the leaders do still have full control. All the Tigers, Royals or Athletics have to do at this point is go a little bit better than .500 and they can guarantee keeping out the Indians, Yankees and Blue Jays. This is not as much of a forgone conclusion as it seemed a few weeks ago. The Royals have lost six of their last ten, the A’s were just swept by the worst team in baseball. Even the Mariners, who were incredibly hot just a couple weeks ago when the won five in a row and seven of nine, have lost six of their last nine against Houston, Oakland and LA. Since there are now three play-off spots in play, the Indians no longer need three of the four top teams in contention to blow the rest of the season. Instead, just two of the top four have to finish the last ten with a losing record.

To start, the two teams contending with the Indians for second, third and fourth out of the second Wild Card have a much more difficult road than Cleveland. The Blue Jays have lost five in a row and six out of seven, placing them into a position where they will need every game for the rest of the season just to get to 87 wins. The magic number for at least the top Wild Card still seems to be about 88 and since Toronto is playing all three series against contenders (the Yankees, Mariners and Orioles) this is unlikely to happen. The Yankees are in a similar situation, but would win 88 games with a 1.000 winning percentage against the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox.

At the moment, Detroit is on pace to win 90 games with Kansas City and Oakland sitting around 88. Of course, since the Tigers and Royals are playing this weekend, one team must lose at least two games. If the Indians can win or sweep the Twins, they will be guaranteed to grab at least one game on one of the teams. If that team is Kansas City, they would be in position to surpass the Royals with a sweep later in the week. From Monday through Wednesday, the Indians will play three originally scheduled games and half an inning of a suspended game. With three outs in the first game, the Indians can make up a whole game difference in the standings and by winning two of the next three, they could make up another. As long as the Royals don’t beat Detroit (and the Indians beat the Twins), this would be enough to get the Indians within 1.5 games with one series left.

Aiding the Indians in their final stretch could be the Los Angeles Angels. They play their final six games of the season against Oakland and Seattle and if the rest of the season means anything, should make short work of those teams. While the Angels may use some of these games to rest starters and get their rotation in order as they have already clinched home field advantage in the first round, it is hard to imagine them rolling over against a play-off caliber divisional foe. The Angels will likely face the winner of the second Wild Card and they have the opportunity to make sure that team does not include Felix Hernandez or the extremely talented A’s starting staff if they can win each of their last two series.

The Indians obviously need some help to reach the postseason, and will almost certainly not be as the Central Division champions, but they could still repeat their 2013 finish. If they are able to win at least eight of their last ten (including at least three against the Royals), things could be incredibly close when the Indians play Tampa Bay over the last three games. In an attempt at redemption, the Indians could even face a situation where beating the Rays on the last day of the regular season could mean the difference between continuing to the play-offs or not. Either way, don’t turn the lights out on the Tribe quite yet.