During the bye week, you can count on two things happening. 1) TBN will pile on the Bills with some ridiculous column (Thanks Sully for your list of the 10 worst road losses in team history, I can hear you yelling “Get off my lawn” as you write it), and 2) columns on who is to blame for whatever has gone wrong in the Bills season to date. I have read columns blaming Rex, refs, EJ, injuries, and the front office. Obviously the truth is probably some combination of all of the above. However, it is my belief that it is the job of the front office to build the best and deepest 53 man roster possible for the coaches, and I believe Doug Whaley has failed miserably at that up to this point.
Doug Whaley’s most famous quote to date was likely “I will not be afraid to be aggressive” prior to the 2014 draft. Aggressive wins headlines and press conferences, and that sells in this city that is so desperate for a winner, that they will buy whatever hope you sell them. I think Whaley has made several questionable moves, with most backfiring, and doing it at the expense of helping the team where it really needs help.
First, let’s start with the good. I think there are 2 instances that really highlight improvements for the team:
- The Shady deal- I know the Legend of Kiko was a thing of beauty, but anytime you can trade a young guy coming off tearing both his ACLs for an all pro running back still in his prime, you make that deal. This deal is even easier to make after watching Preston Brown for a season.
- Signing Incognito- I hesitate a little bit here to give Whaley too much credit. I don’t think Incognito had any other options, but nonetheless, he is rated as one of the best guards in the NFL so far this season and has been a strength of the OL to date.
Now let’s look at what I consider the very risky moves that have not paid off.
- Trading Matt Cassel- Look, There have been three articles on this site documenting how much Cassel and EJ both suck (as do all backups in general), so I’m not about to try and convince you that Matt Cassel is an upgrade over EJ. I’m also not going to take the rationale of some main stream media and say that you can’t judge Dallas Cassel because Buffalo Cassel is a different system and maybe he plays better. What I am going to criticize is the risk/reward. Buffalo was in theory built to win this year. Trading a guy who may play (especially when you have a QB that runs it, they will miss a game somewhere) for a 5th round pick in 2017 is ridiculous. I think that Whaley has such blind loyalty to EJ, that he didn’t care what others thought about him. At the very least, the coaching staff wasn’t thrilled with this idea. Plus, a 5th round pick is just a guy you hope makes the team and maybe contributes on special teams.
You may still be saying, but they both suck, what difference does it make? That’s exactly my point. You’ve seen enough of both of these guys to know they are capable of a stinker of a game. I truly have no confidence in either. If you have both on the roster, at least you have the option to go with the other guy. There is no way the Jags game goes the same way, because EJ would’ve been benched for Cassel earlier. Again, I’m not delusional that Cassel is a life saver, but we’ve seen enough of EJ to know at the very least you need options beyond him. Getting a 2017 late round pick does not match the win now philosophy and to me seems as if it was made so Whaley could try and prove he was right on EJ.
- The Percy Signing- Disclaimer, I am a Gator grad, and a huge Percy homer. He was the best player on the Tebow Gators, and it’s not even close. His first three years in the league, he averaged about 15 games played, 70 catches for 870 yards, 30 rushes for 200 yards, and 8 tds. Since 2012, he’s averaged about 8 games played, 25 catches for 300 yards, 20 rushes for 100 yards, and 2.5 tds. This is the guy Whaley paid 6 million per year for. His whole game is built on speed and for 4 straight years, he has missed huge chunks of the season due to injuries. WR is the deepest position in the league (more on that later), and you just spent 2 #1s on a WR (more on that later also). That money needed to be spent on an OL that at least gives whoever is playing QB a chance. I want to love this signing, but we did not sign the Percy of 2009-11.
- Cutting Fred Jackson- Another Disclaimer, this is not about Fred Jackson, but more about running back depth. When Rex and Roman were hired, they spoke of grinding out games, and winning with big boy power football. Obviously this translates with lots of rushing attempts. You have to have 2, and probably three NFL caliber running backs to pull this off as guys will get nicked up, and even if not missing games, needing a few plays off. This was especially compounded by the fact that Shady clearly was nursing a hamstring in training camp. You cannot go into with only 2 capable running backs on your roster (Dixon is a special teams guy, please don’t try and convince me otherwise). This is especially true when your back-up (who seems to be a decent player), only played running back his last 2 years of college, and only split time at FSU during those 2 seasons. You need depth here for this system. This becomes even more of an issue if you subscribe to the reports that Whaley went rogue in cutting him. I’m a firm believer that the GM gets final say, but I also believe that coaches need to be a big part of the discussion.
- The Sammy Trade- As I mentioned earlier, going into the 2014 draft, Whaley was quoted as saying “I will not be afraid to be aggressive.” Aggressive he was. I believe there are only 3 times you move up in the draft (when I say move up, I mean move up at a big cost, not moving up 1 spot and swapping third round picks). You move up if you have a chance to draft a franchise QB without a doubt. You move up if you are drafting late and feel like you are 1 player away from competing for a title (think Atlanta targeting Julio Jones), and you move up if there is such a dramatic drop off at your position of need, that you can’t bear the thought of drafting the next guy on your list. We can obviously eliminate the QB option on the Sammy deal, which means Whaley either thought the Bills were one player away (clearly they weren’t), or that there was a huge drop-off after Sammy (again, this has proved false). I think it had more to do with making headlines, and trying to make EJ look good as anything. Again, understand this is not anti-Sammy, it is anti-Sammy trade.
WR is the deepest position entering the NFL draft these days. As colleges paly more spread and more 3 and 4 and 5 WR sets, there are tons of talented WR entering the league. Short of a Calvin Johnson/Randy Moss, I’m not sure there is a single WR you move up for. If you simply stay put, you end up with 1 of 3 of Sammy, Mike Evans, or Beckham Jr. Even beyond those guys, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Matthews, and a few others could have been had later. Again, I’m not arguing Sammy isn’t necessarily going to be better than those guys, but I would rather have had 1 of the top 3, and kept my first round pick. WR is the new running back, as I think you can get legit starters and contributors well into the third round these days. Not only are guys drafted after Sammy performing well, but don’t you think with all the OL problems the Bills have, that an OL would’ve been a nice addition at #19 in the 2015 draft? 4 OL were picked from 19-28 in the first round where Buffalo would’ve picked. This is without even stating the obvious comparison to OBJ that Sammy is going to live with his entire career.
It is easy to grab headlines by being an aggressive GM. That works in a city that so desperately wants to think this is the year, the problem is, in today’s NFL, it doesn’t work. The Patriots (I hate myself for giving them credit) have continued to reload for years by trading down for multiple picks. Whaley has only been the man in charge a short-time, but to date, he seems to be in over his head. Headlines may win in the offseason, but they don’t win when it January.
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