If history is any indication, the Saints go 7-9 when they have a weak team under Sean Payton (and/or Drew Brees). That’s the floor. When they started 0-3 this year, I felt there was a chance this team would be worse than that; much worse. But now on a two game winning streak, even amidst clear signs of major flaws during those two most recent wins, it has me wondering if the Saints can again end the year around 7-9 or maybe even better with a little luck.
As much as you hate those 7-9 seasons, because they’re tough to stomach for more than half the games and because it costs the team a really good draft pick, they do incorporate some fun. That win over Carolina was really fun. And now I think it’s time we give Sean Payton’s bad teams a little credit. Yes, you read that sentence correctly. Unbelievably, every time this team gets off to a disastrous start, they find a way to claw back to .500. Is that “good” or “acceptable” when you put it up against expectations and the ridiculous high standard Payton has set? Of course not. But it’s still pretty impressive in its own way. There was one 7-9 team that pretty much took turns winning and losing each week, but consider all these other 7-9 Payton squads:
| Year | Saints Final Record | Start to season | Record when they eventually reached .500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 7-9 | 0-4 | 4-4 |
| 2012* | 7-9 | 0-4 | 5-5 |
| 2014 | 7-9 | 0-2, 1-3 | 4-4 |
| 2015 | 7-9 | 0-3 | 4-4 |
| 2016 | ?? | 0-3 | ?? |
* Sean Payton was suspended in 2012 and not coaching the team.
It’s incredible how similar these seasons go and so far 2016 is following the script to a T. These teams have all had disastrous starts. And in all cases, the Saints find a way to climb back to .500 before petering out at the end of the season and finishing 7-9. Again, you wish they could carry that comeback momentum into a winning record but I think it’s pretty admirable that they don’t allow horrible starts to dictate the course of the entire season. It would have been very easy for any of these teams to flame out and go 3-13. This year was no exception after the way they started. If there’s one common thread here it’s that Sean Payton coached teams don’t quit even if they’re not very good. And while 7-9 is the most likely end game at this point – you’d love to see them go into Kansas City and get a win. If the team is back at .500, the next opportunity becomes a chance to buck this trend. Granted, there’s a chance the Saints lose their very tough next two games and drop back to 2-5. Who knows what happens at that point. If the Saints beat Kansas City on the road, though, there’s reason to once again gain hope and excitement for 2016 – even if it means setting yourself up for heartbreak.
The Saints have help on the way, too. Paul Kruger looks like he’s optimistic he’ll be back soon. Terron Armstead is back practicing – that’s huge. Delvin Breaux looks a little closer to returning to practice. Sheldon Rankins is practicing and looks sets to return for week 9 at San Francisco. If the Saints can get all of these guys back and playing well shortly, it could really help the run they’re trying to go on.
So don’t give up on your 2016 Saints just yet. I know most of us had after 3 games and even if they make this mini run history says they’ll be 7-9. But again, history also says these teams never lay down and they find a way to climb their way back into playing meaningful games in December. Given the way it was looking early on, I’ll settle for that. And those “meaningful games” in December, if they happen, are not decided outcomes.
Everything starts Sunday, when this Sean Payton team has yet another shot at getting back to .500 despite a horrendous start to the season.
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