Drew Brees is in the final year of his contract and there’s tons of questions, speculation and uncertainty surrounding the future. There’s been some negotiations about an extension, but so far Brees is set to test the free agency market next offseason. He’s also set a deadline of the start of the season as a cut off point in negotiations at which point he would not be open to negotiating an extensions in New Orleans until after the season. At that point, he’d be closer to hitting free agency in earnest as a player with an open market. In a league desperate for proven quality quarterbacks, there is zero question he would find suitors – including some that may be more attractive than the Saints.
As a reminder, the Saints can still keep the upper hand. They could franchise him, but that is financially prohibitive. You’ll remember Brees won a ruling that significantly inflated the value of his last franchise tender in 2012. Because of that ruling, a new franchise tag would inflate again and come with a value of $43.09 million for one year. The salary cap in 2017 is estimated at $155,270,000, so Brees would take up roughly 28% of the Saints cap space all on his own if he were franchised. It’s worth noting some are suggesting the cap could go as high as ~$165 million. The Saints already have over $127 million committed to contracts BEFORE any Brees deal in 2017, so needless to say a one year tender for $43.09 million would be crippling in free agency. But while the franchise tag is not realistic, the transition tag might be. It’s hard for me to understand that exact cost for Brees because of the inflation scenarios, but in all cases a transition tag is always cheaper than a franchise tag. NFL rules state “A transition player has received a minimum offer of the average of the top 10 salaries of last season at the player’s position or 120 percent of the player’s previous year’s salary, whichever is greater.” Since Brees’s cap figure in 2016 is roughly $30 million, I’m guessing $36 million would be the price for the transition tag. In this scenario the Saints would reserve the right to match any offer sheet Brees signed and if they didn’t, they’d receive no compensation. Riskier but more affordable proposition, but the Saints could decide to match any offer if they wanted to retain Brees at all cost.
But what do I want them to do? This is where it gets more complicated. As a 35 year old that’s been a Saints fan my whole life, born from Saints fans, I have a wide lens historical perspective. I’m also a Saints history junkie/buff/nerd, so admittedly my line of thinking is not going to be the same as every fan out there. I never believed a Super Bowl title was in the cards for us. The fact that it happened in my lifetime is something I cherish and will hold dear forever. I still pinch myself that I was able to see it. My perspective is very different than fans that have “come on board” as a function of the winning. Or maybe they were Saints fans by environment, like me, but they are younger and have only experienced winning. I totally get and respect the “at some point the franchise needs to move on if Brees’s costs become too prohibitive in balancing the talent on the roster”. I believe fans that take that position are still nostalgic about Brees, appreciate everything he did for the team, but are willing to move on. There’s also fans, of course, that are more tied to Brees than they are to the team at this point. The day he leaves is the day they stop being Saints fans. Or maybe they’ll remain Saints fans post Brees, as long as his final exit is seen and handled in the perfect way. Personally, I have been a Saints fan for life and I will continue to be long after Brees is no longer a member of the team. I root for the emblem above all else, not Drew Brees. I root for Brees because he has the Fleur de Lis logo on his helmet. He’s a likable guy and given the history now I would want him to do well in life wherever he goes (politics, another team, whatever) – but never at the expense of the Saints. Regardless of whether he leaves 2 years from now, next offseason when he joins a different team, or 5 years from now in retirement, some day he will leave.
I will admit the way in which this ends is important to me. I respect and understand the Saints fans that want to win and don’t really care about Brees’s exit. It has to happen eventually anyway. They want the highest percentage chance of winning. That’s what the game is all about, after all. I believe Brees offers them that luxury but there’s certainly an argument to be made, at some point, that they’re better off not paying an approaching 40 year old $25-$30 million a year to wreck their cap. If you can use that money to spread it around the roster – you can have success with a deep team and a cheap quarterback. The Seahawks did it with Russell Wilson and the 49ers did it with Colin Kaepernick. Until, of course, they paid them enormous amounts and starting having less success. Personally, I believe the name of the game starts with having an elite quarterback. And until Brees demonstrates he’s no longer that, the Saints need to do whatever is necessary to keep him.
It makes me wonder – would you be ok with a really messy Drew Brees divorce if you knew it meant a year later the Saints went 12-4 and were in the title hunt? Or if you knew the team would go 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs without Brees, but would go 8-8 (or worse) and not make the playoffs WITH Brees, would you prefer the proper send off? I remember how things ended with Willie Roaf, Bobby Hebert, Morten Andersen, Joe Horn, LeCharles Bentley, Sammy Knight… the list goes on and on. Those guys are all great Saints and should be celebrated, but man, I hate the way they left. I feel like it does sully the “story” of their time with the team a little bit. I’d hate to see it play out that way with Brees.
There’s a big part of me that wants Brees to stay no matter what. No matter how bad he gets, no matter how much the team struggles, I want that storybook ending. And of course I’m still confident he can play really well, the big question is whether the Saints can do enough around him. I want him to retire a Saint. He (along with many others) gave the Saints a Super Bowl title, he’s maybe the most directly responsible person for it along with maybe Sean Payton, and I don’t really want to see him end his career with another team. I hated to see Peyton Manning leave the Colts. I’m sure watching him win with the Broncos this year was really bittersweet for those fans. Of course they have Andrew Luck so that takes out the sting… but what if they had drafted Brandon Weeden, RG3 or Ryan Tannehill instead? Going back to the historical perspective, 5-11 over the next 3 years would be miserable but it would be a small price to pay for one Super Bowl in my lifetime. The mystery of what’s on the other side is an abyss of unknown and it is so hard to speculate… but the Saints can control how things end with Brees. They can’t control as easily how good their next QB or team will be.
I hear some of you saying “that’s the past and you can’t live in the past”. I say memories are what we have to hold onto in life. Not to get philosophical about things, but half the fun of these blog posts and podcasts is constantly referencing the past (as well as the future). So I’m conflicted. Of course I want another Super Bowl title and of course I want the team to do what’s best for them. And of course I’ll support whatever direction they go in, even if it ends up being wrong. I reserve the right to criticize it, mind you, but I’ll still be a fan of the team. But if you’re asking me what I want? I want Brees to stay a Saint until he retires, and I’m willing to run the risk that that MIGHT be the worst thing for the franchise. I concede I’m not convinced it’s the best thing for the franchise in terms of wins. I’m also not convinced it’s not the best either, though.
Brees is 37 now and 38 in January. The Saints will be a football team without him sooner than later. How do you want things to end with Brees?
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