There’s a serious strain of overconfidence among Duck fans about the Washington game.
Most seem to think it will be another 50-point romp, another weekend that shows the Ducks are just vastly better than the rest of college football.
But this is a very different Husky team than the ones Oregon dominated over the last nine years. The current Huskies are physical and well-balanced. Last week they outgained Stanford in Palo Alto 489 yards to 279. Quarterback Keith Price is completing 71.3% of his passes. Workhorse running back Bishop Sankey is 4th in the country in rushing with 146.4 yards per game. Trusting in three reliable outside receivers and a dangerous tight end, Price has the Huskies converting 58.3% of their third downs, 62% at home. Overall, the offense cranks out 557 yards and 37.4 points a game.
The Malamute offense has been stopped three and out just six times in 65 tries all season.
Defensively, however, is where the Huskies have made the biggest improvement. Coordinator, Justin Wilcox has been a Duck killer before, engineering the 19-8 defeat in Boise four years ago, and this year he has the Dawg defense hitting, ripping and stripping, allowing just 14.8 points a game. They’re #1 in the conference in total defense, 287.8 yards per contest. They held Kevin Hogan and Stanford to 100 yards passing.
They’re anchored inside by 6-1 327-lb. nose tackle Danny Shelton, a beast to move in the middle. The defensive ends have combined for 6.5 sacks. Linebacker Shaq Thompson is one of the best athletes in the country. The entire defense can stick and move: they’ve allowed just two passing touchdowns all year, 146 yards a game through the air, while intercepting seven passes.
The Ducks are playing this game without De’Anthony Thomas and Colt Lyerla, two of their principal weapons going into the year. Washington cornerback Greg Ducre was a high school teammate of DAT’s in Compton. Ducre told Adam Jude of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, “He said he’s trying to, but probably not. He said he’s trying to, though, so we’ll see.” It’s all smokescreen: Thomas isn’t playing. He’s moving around better, walking without a limp, but he doesn’t have any explosion or ability to cut on the ankle. If he tried, he wouldn’t trust it, so it’s better he sits.
Lyerla’s absence is pooh-poohed with the next-man-up mantra, but he caught two touchdown passes against the Dawgs last year, and neither Johnny Mundt or Pharoah Brown has started in a big game.
Which brings the conversation to the biggest sticking point on Saturday night. The Ducks are 5-0 and look like world beaters, but they haven’t played anybody. Their five wins have come over the two worst teams in the PAC-12 Conference, an FCS school, a 2-3 Virginia team that lost 48-27 at home to Ball State last weekend, and a rebuilding 3-3 Tennessee squad whose signature win this season is a 31-24 slugfest with South Alabama.
4-1 Washington, meanwhile, beat Boise State 38-6 in their opener, manhandled Illinois, Idaho State and Arizona before losing by a field goal to Stanford after breakdowns in kickoff coverage. This week Steve Sarkisian has starting linebackers Thomson and John Timu on the kickoff team, and the Ducks will have untested Troy Hill returning them alongside Keanon Lowe.
Without Thomas, the Ducks lose some of their swagger and explosiveness. Byron Marshall is a capable back, but he doesn’t light up the highlight reel the way The Black Momba does. True freshman Thomas Tyner has the gamebreaking ability, but he hasn’t yet found it at the college level, and he has two fumbles in his last two games, a concern against a ballhawking defense.
Unless the Ducks do a good job protecting Marcus Mariota and get him in a good rhythm early, the offense could have trouble with a strong Washington defense.
Oregon fans are full of chortle and retort about the nine-year win streak and the relative rankings of the teams, but they’re neglecting one very critical element. This game is being played in a hostile environment on the road, the loudest, most charged atmosphere the Ducks have faced in a long while. It’s a great equalizer. Washington will begin this game with tremendous passion and emotion, and they’re highly likely to play over their heads, bring the most intense effort the Ducks have seen since Stanford last November.
To handle it and thrive, Oregon needs a crisp start and a defense that executes and tackles. Last week Colorado, lowly Colorado, had six plays over over 20 yards, and 374 yards on offense.
If Oregon plays in a similar fashion against Washington, they could find themselves in serious trouble in a road game against a solid opponent. This is an Oregon team that hasn’t had to play its starters in the fourth quarter, with a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback who’s never led a fourth quarter drive to win a game.
Other than the three interceptions he’s spread out over five games, the guy in purple and black has better stats.
Mark Helfrich told Register-Guard reporter Ryan Thorburn, “I think certainly they’re the most complete team we’ve played. “They’ve got a lot of big, fast, talented guys. Their schemes have changed, I think, to accentuate that athleticism in some of their skill guys.”
It will take Oregon’s best, most complete effort of the year to beat Washington. The forecast calls for 57 degrees and showers the 1:00 p.m. kickoff, televised nationally on Fox Sports 1. Gus Johnson will handle the play-by-play.
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