Another reason to give thanks: as badly as Oregon stumbled in PAC-12 in the November stretch drive this year it could have been worse. Due to the blessings of the PAC-12 schedule rotation they didn’t face Arizona State and USC, the two most dangerous teams in the PAC-12 South, each with a physical defense and a punishing running attack, the combination that’s given them so much trouble this year.
Huff daddy: in his last game at Autzen, Oregon’s fiery and emotional senior leader hopes to leave with a lasting memory (Thomas Boyd, oregonlive.com photo).
Oregon has to get better at linebacker and defensive tackle through off season workouts and the 2014 recruiting class, or Duck fans will circle the table next Thanksgiving with some of the same concerns and disappointments they’re voicing this year over the cranberry sauce. Texas linebacker Jimmie Swain visits this weekend, and Vincent Jackson, a hitting machine from Florida (6-3, 245) still has high Oregon interest, very likely to sign if the Ducks grant him a visit before NSD. Both have good grades and the requisite aggressiveness to upgrade the attitude on a defense that allowed 69% conversions on 3rd and 4th downs (27-39) in their two losses.
The Ducks are also negotiating with a trio of massive junior college defensive tackles, Alfonso Hampton, Terrell Clinkscales and Sam Schwab. Wrapping up one or two of these three would be the football equivalent of a big red ribbon on a Lexus in the driveway for Christmas.
In the November malaise, they’ve become a defense that has misplaced its will and urgency, finding itself in far too many third-and-short situations, allowing opponents to convert those with alarming regularity. Add in 5 turnovers and 3 turnovers on downs by the offense, and it’s little wonder the Ducks were stuffed and basted in decisive and unfamiliar fashion, falling out of the Top Ten for the five time in five years.
They can reclaim their place at college football’s big-boy table with a win over the Beavers, but it’s a game that still has some spots on the silverware. Although Oregon State doesn’t have a dangerous ground game, they do feature the formidable passing connection of Sean Mannion to Brandin Cooks. Cooks has roasted opponents for 110 catches for 1560 yards, 15 touchdowns this season, and tight end Connor Hamlett, running back Storm Woods, and wide receivers Richard Mullaney and Micah Hatfield add seasoning and spice to the nation’s 3rd-best passing attack.
Cooks fully expects a strong effort from Oregon’s NFL-bound secondary. He told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune, “Knowing that team, they’re going to bounce back. They’re not laying down. They have a great defense. (Cornerback Ifo) Ekpre-Olomu is a first-rounder, Terrance Mitchell is another great corner, and their safeties are good. They have a team full of hungry people.”
The Beavs don’t run much, just 72.8 yards a game, but they’ve vowed to have some wrinkles for the Ducks, and they’re likely to come in with a lot of emotion after losing in the rivalry for five straight years. Earlier this year Nick Aliotti’s crew gave up 557 yards to Washington State’s Air Raid passing attack, and Colorado’s Paul Richardson, another of the conference’s elite receivers, got behind them for 5 catches, 134 yards and a TD, even threw a wide receiver option pass to D.D. Goodson for a 75-yard TD.
Expect Beav head coach Mike Riley to put out a full relish tray of tricks and gimmicks in the battle for the Platypus Trophy: Oregon’s safeties and corners come up hard in run support, and they’ve shown vulnerability to the play-action pass, double moves and reverse option plays. The visitors will try to exploit their aggressiveness, looking to seize momentum with a couple of big plays early in the game. In a contest between two teams that are slumping, emotion and desire play an even greater role than they do normally. Surprise plays and swings of momentum have a bigger impact.
The great blessing for the Ducks tomorrow night is that quarterback Marcus Mariota finally seems healthy. They should be able to unleash him with full mobility against the Flat Tails. Remember the Mariota who was a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, the one who had seven touchdowns against Colorado (5 passing, 2 running) and zoomed for a 57-yard td run against Washington State?
The Oregon offense has far better rhythm and tempo with Super Mario ungrounded. The running game has suffered miserably over the last few weeks with opponents recognizing the Duck superstar wasn’t likely to hurt them dashing out of the pocket or keeping on the zone read. Now he’s moving better. Scott Frost is likely to take the wraps off on Friday. A healthy Mariota is far faster than anyone in the Beaver front seven.
The last factor to consider is the Oregon coaches. Aliotti and Frost have been outschemed the last few weeks, and it hasn’t been pretty. There was nothing tricky or unexpected about what Stanford and Arizona did to them in the two letdowns on national TV, yet the Ducks didn’t seem ready and never adjusted.
Oregon State has been running the same offense for ten seasons. They’ll throw crossing routes to Cooks. They’ll throw the deep post off play action. They’ll throw the dumpoff pass to Storm Woods, and to the fullback on the flat route on third and short, to the tight end on hitch routes for first downs. On running plays, they’ll hide 5-7, 202-lb. Teron Ward and 5-10, 198-lb. Chris Brown behind the tackles.
Frost understands what’s behind the lapse in Oregon’s fortunes. Yesterday he told Ryan Thorburn of the Register-Guard, “When a program is at the top and starting to fall, it’s never going to be big problems.”
“It’s going to be a little crack here, a little crack there, a little problem here, a little problem there. We’ve got a lot of guys around here that are used to winning all the time. We’ve got to make sure that everybody in this program understands nobody is going to give us any games. Every team in this conference is good enough to beat you if we’re not taking care of our business.”
Tomorrow the Ducks have more talent, provided they come ready to play and cut down on the self-inflicted wounds. After a slightly overcooked, dried-out season, a sixth year of 10 wins would be a nice dessert.
Trevor Matich of ESPN broke down the game on ESPNU yesterday, and he sees Mariota’s renewed mobility as a key factor:
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