(DISCLAIMER: There is mentioning of gambling in this column, and I do talk about over/under win totals. Please use that for entertainment purposes only unless you’re in the state of Nevada or you have a really good relationship with your friend, Sam the Bookie.)
It’s hard to imagine a time where the Philadelphia Eagles fan base hasn’t been this jacked up for an NFL season. If one were to guess, one would possibly pick the 2004 season where the Eagles added Terrell Eldorado Owens in free agency. (No, really. His middle name is Eldorado. I looked it up to make sure.)
After catching the NFL by surprise (sort of) and wildly exceeding expectations (to the point where I had to pose for this photo on Facebook because I lost a bet with my friend Sarah), the Eagles are very poised under year two of Chip Kelly. Gone is mercurial and potential gang member (although that was never proven) DeSean Jackson. Jackson has been replaced by Darren Sproles and rookies Jordan Matthews — who is only the SEC’s all-time leader in receptions — and Josh Huff — who is just as speedy and dangerous in the return game. Jeremy Maclin returns after tearing his ACL in training camp last year, so this year’s rendition of the Birds are poised to fly high.
Vegas took note of this as well and set the Eagles over/under for win totals at nine games. I’m of the mindset that they’re definitely going over nine wins. The only question is how high over nine they go. I’ve fluctuated between 10-6 and 12-4. In one weird moment of unbridled optimism, I said 13-3. After I smacked myself in the face to bring myself down a couple of levels, I’ve settled on where I see this team. The Eagles do play the NFC West this year, so that’s going to be a very difficult chore considering all four of those teams have very good (Rams) to fantastic, other world defenses (Seattle). There is still reason for optimism as we go down the schedule. (I’m writing this under the pretense that everyone will remain healthy all season, so do with that nugget of information what you will.)
September 7th vs. Jacksonville: The home and season opener against the Jaguars who are, themselves, in year two of a new coach — Gus Bradley. The Jaguars have been bad for years and last year was no different as they started 0-8. After the bye week, however, the Jaguars went 4-4, and two of their last losses in 2013 were all single digit losses. The Jaguars got torched by 20 in Indianapolis on the last game of the season, but there was a sense that the team was getting on board with what the former Seattle defensive coordinator was doing. Bradley now has Toby Gerhart in his backfield, and the team drafted Blake Bortles out of UCF. Right now, the line for this game is PHI -10.5. If Bortles was starting, I would consider a “Jaguars to cover” bet, but considering Henne starts the season, the Eagles should win this game handily.
September 15th at Indianapolis: You could go back and forth on this game several hundred times and STILL not have a solid decision. I’ve wavered from “Eagles win in blowout” to “Indianapolis wins close game”. My gut honestly tells me that Indianapolis wins this game for two reasons. This is Indianapolis’ home opener, and the Colts are pretty strong at home (6-2 last year including a win against the Broncos in Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis). That leads me to point two. The Colts are probably going to lose to Denver at Mile High in week one, and there’s a good possibility it will be a blowout. The Colts lack of a running game makes it difficult to keep Manning and Denver’s offense off the field which means that they will put up 35-40 points. Coming home, the Colts will be angry, hungry, and looking for that first win, and they’ll get it when the Eagles fly in.
September 21 vs. Washington: If Eagles fans have one game circled on their calendar, this is the one. The reason is very simple. The reason is very direct. DeSean Jackson returns to Philadelphia. If you have tickets to this game, go! If you have plans that Sunday afternoon, break them! Get in front of your TV for this. By week three, we will have seen what kind of shape Robert Griffin III is in. If he has returned to the RG3 of old, that kind of scares the hell out of me to be honest. With RG3 and DeSean and Pierre Garcon AND Jordan Reed, Washington’s offense is as lethal as the Eagles. (Oh, and don’t forget about Alfred Morris, either.) The defense of the Washington Professional Football Team, however, is not lethal at all, and that’s why the Eagles win this game in a potential shootout — something in the 38-31 range.
September 28th at San Francisco: Prior to Ray McDonald’s charge for domestic violence, I said the 49ers were winning this game. There was no doubt in my mind. Not having Aldon Smith is one thing, but not having Smith AND McDonald is something else entirely. Navarro Bowman won’t be back in time for this game either as he’s recovering from his nasty injury from the NFC Championship Game last year. That’s a good portion of San Francisco’s defense that won’t be dressed. All of this has me second guessing my original “San Francisco wins going away” choice. Yes, the 49ers have Kaepernick, Crabtree, Gore, newly acquired Stevie Johnson, etc., but those guys don’t play defense. The 49ers are going to be very weak in this game on one side of the ball, so there’s a possibility the Eagles steal this one on the road. (It’s also worth mentioning that Chip Kelly faced Jim Harbaugh four times while he was the head coach at Oregon and Harbaugh was at Stanford. Kelly is 3-1 against Harbaugh, and in all three of his wins, Kelly’s team has scored 50+ points.)
October 5th vs. St. Louis: This game marks the return of suspended OL Lane Johnson to the Eagles line, and the timing couldn’t be more perfect. The Rams front four of Chris Long and Robert Quinn on the outside (27.5 sacks combined in ’13) with Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers in the middle is as stout of a front four as you’re going to see. The Eagles are going to need all hands on deck for that monster. One could easily see this game as a “trap game” considering the Birds could be (theoretically) coming off a huge win in San Francisco. If Sam Bradford wasn’t injured, I would at least consider the possibility of this being a loss, but Shaun Hill doesn’t scare anyone. The Rams offense (aside from Zac Stacy) doesn’t scare anyone. Eagles win this going away.
October 12th vs. New York Giants: I would say this is more the “trap game” Eagles fans are weary of because it’s the Giants, and they always seem to just hang around whenever they get together with the Birds (as evidenced by their 15-7 win in October of last year). That was a game where Matt Barkley was the starter, however, and not Nick Foles or Michael Vick or any brand of a competent quarterback. If the Eagles are 100 percent healthy offensively going into this game, it won’t be pretty for the boys in blue because their defense … *whistles* Their defense isn’t going to stop many offenses this year, and the Eagles won’t be the first. The Giants offense is in transition to more of a West Coast feel, so it will be interesting to see if Eli Manning can make it work. This is a home division game for the Birds, and that usually bodes well for them early in the season.
BYE WEEK: The only thing I have here is that I want to point out that I have the Eagles at 5-1 going into the bye week. I’m not sure if that’s blind optimism or logical deduction, but take it however you choose.
October 25th at Arizona: There are two teams on the Eagles schedule this year that have a combination of an offense that can put up points on the Birds defense, and a defense that is more than capable of preventing the Eagles from scoring points. The Arizona Cardinals are one of those teams. When the Cardinals want to score, they can give the ball to Andre Ellington, or Carson Palmer can let it fly to either Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd. (Say what you will about that last statement. I think Carson Palmer throws for 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs this year. He also won’t have 20+ INTs. Mark it down.) When Arizona wants to stop you, they have the power up front (even without injured Darnell Dockett) to bring pressure, and they have talent on the back end with the second best cornerback in the NFL, Mr. Patrick Peterson, and a potential ball hawk at free safety in Tyrann Mathieu. Even with two weeks to prepare, I still think the Eagles lose this game.
November 2nd at Houston: The second of a post bye week road trip has the Eagles going down to Houston. By this point, I actually have Houston at 3-5 with wins over Oakland, Buffalo, and at Tennessee, so they could look a little frisky. By this point, however, I also have Arian Foster out with an ankle or hamstring injury of some kind. (It always happens, folks. I’ve been playing enough fantasy football to realize this over the past couple seasons.) That being said combined with the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the Texans quarterback, and this is another game the Eagles will probably win easily. I have my doubts as to whether or not Houston can actually score (despite Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins/et al), and the Texans don’t have the kind of defense that can limit the Birds offense. Watching JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney together will be fun, though, right? Right? Anyone? Bueller?
After the first eight games of the 2014-2015 season, I have the Eagles at 6-2. There is a 5-3 scenario in play because the Birds could easily drop that game in San Francisco. The second eight game slate on the schedule should be a lot more interesting because there are two very pivotal games on the schedule, a surprise game I think the Eagles will drop, and we haven’t even talked about the Cowboys, yet. Stay tuned for Part 2 coming later this week on Total Sports Live.
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