A few weeks into the season, which lottery team head coaches should be starting to worry about their teams (and jobs).
The early parts of the season are always filled with overreactions. Last year I heard things like, “Is Charlotte playing too well?” following a 7-5 start, because god forbid they actually play decent basketball for once (the answer to that question was no by the way). Other teams will have poor starts, and often if one starts bad enough the head coach gets the early axe. Last year Mike Brown was victim #1, fired after a 1-4 start.
Examining the records thus far (so, as of Nov. 15th), which head coaches (of last year’s lottery teams) should be worried? I’ll start in Washington with second year coach Randy Wittman, where it has been a poor start for the potential playoff bound Wizards. Currently on a three game losing streak, their 2-6 record is somewhat due to a tough early schedule. Their current three game losing streak came from playing three good Western Conference teams (OKC, Dallas, San Antonio) on the road. Their two wins are over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, the former sitting atop the Atlantic Division and the latter at the bottom, surprisingly.
John Wall’s early struggles, particularly shooting, is partly to blame, as he is only shooting 38% from the field. Most recently against San Antonio he shot 5-19 in 30 minutes before leaving the game after being poked in the eye. Bradley Beal struggled early as well, and while he put in good performances against the Nets and Thunder, he followed it up with nine points on 2-10 shooting against Dallas. Marcin Gortat has been fairly consistent thus far putting up near double-double numbers in points and rebounds and averaging two blocks a game. It is somewhat telling though that in the Wizard’s two wins Gortat averages 17 points and 12 rebounds a game, as opposed to 11.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in six losses. Gortat was traded for right before the season to provide more offense in the low post, and Washington should hope once he’s fully settled in he’ll produce numbers closer to what he put up two seasons ago, when he averaged 15.4 points and 10 rebounds a game.
Defensively Washington needs to improve as well. Currently ranked 26th in points allowed (giving up 104.8 a game), there is more room for concern on the defensive end because beyond a few players in the starting lineup, Washington doesn’t exactly have any true defensive stoppers. Despite a 29-53 record last season the Wizards were 5th best in defensive rating (giving up 103 points per 100 posessions) and 8th best in points allowed. Credit a lot of this to Emeka Okafor (sent away in the Gortat trade), who despite his offensive inefficiencies, has always been stellar on defense, and last season posted his best defensive rating of his career of 99.
Washington plays struggling Cleveland twice in the next three games, as well as Minnesota at home and Toronto on the road. Beating Cleveland at least once, Toronto on the road, and Minnesota at home as a staple game would move things in the right direction for Washington. Lose three out of four of though, and it won’t look good for Wittman.
Out west, Ty Corbin may be looking over his shoulder. The Jazz are 1-8, and while a rebuilding year was expected, the Jazz currently have the worst record in the NBA, and are struggling to score the ball. Currently they rank last in points per game, averaging only 89.6 points a game. The young core of the Jazz are off to good starts, with each averaging career bests in points led by Gordon Hayward at 20.3 a game, Enes Kanter at 16.4 and Derrick Favors at 13.0 (who is averaging 10 rebounds a game as well). Beyond them, there isn’t much else, with only Alec Burks and Richard Jefferson averaging double figures. Brandon Rush, who was brought in through trade this year, has the ability to score from beyond the arc, but is still making his way back from a torn ACL. Rush played ten minutes in one game this year, but has sat since. Taking time to recover is the right move, but the Jazz are missing his ability to score.
Also factor in the absence of Trey Burke, who had surgery to repair a fractured right index finger before the season. The rookie point guard was expected to be the starter from day one, and his injury left the time incredibly then at point guard, with John Lucas III and Alec Burks as replacements. Considering the Jazz are currently 28th in assists, getting Burke back should improve the team’s offensive play.
Things won’t get easier for Utah in the short term, who play at home to San Antonio, and then a home and away against Golden State. Losing all three is likely, but how they lose could determine if Corbin is fired or not.
Finally, keep an eye on New Orleans and head coach Monty Williams. Also losers of three straight, the Pelicans haven’t had the start some predicted they would, losing to Orlando, Phoenix twice, and most recently giving Utah its first win. The bright spot has been Anthony Davis, who is averaging 21.8 points and 11.2 rebounds a game, along with 2.1 steals and 3.1 blocks. Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday have been solid, but Tyreke Evans has been slow to start the year, averaging only 9.0 points, shooting 36%. The Pelicans are average as a team in major statistical categories, and can’t find any consistency. A bad loss to the Magic was followed by a dominating win against the Bobcats the following night, and then followed by a home loss to Phoenix. New Orleans has three home games in a row against lesser opponents coming up (Philadelphia, Utah, and Cleveland), so the Pelicans should take advantage.
Other teams like Cleveland and Detroit are struggling early as well, but also have first year coaches who should be given time. Washington, Utah, and New Orleans all have coaches who have been with their respective teams for at least one full season. Each has their own set of expectations, whether it be playoffs or rebuilding, but should things continue to go worse than planned, look for one of these teams to make a change at head coach.
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