Breaking news: It gets cold in Cleveland in April and May. Ok, so that might not be newsworthy, but the Indians experiment to avoid the cold and increase attendance in the past two seasons is worth looking into.
Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, it didn’t matter when the Indians started their home games, they were going to sell out. It’s no secret, however, that attendance has steadily dropped since then and with the exception of 2010 to 2011 and 2015 to 2016, average ticket sales have dropped every single season since 2007 (when I started keeping track).
In 2007, the Indians hit a new single game low with 13,389 on April 25th, then they broke that record in 2009 (11,408 on April 21st). They broke that mark 12 times in 2010 including a low of 10,071 on April 14th and they sunk below 10,000 seven times in 2011 including another new low of 8,726 on April 3rd. While they haven’t hit this low again, five games in 2012 and 2013 along with nine in 2014 and two in 2015 fell below that 10,000 figure. While these games came against different teams and with the Indians in vastly different states of contention, what nearly every single one had in common was that it was in April or May and played at night (in 2016, they had three games under 10,000 including 8,766 on May 4th vs Detroit).
In 2014, the Indians came up for a fix for this. Ticket prices in April and May were reduced (or not raised as much) and many games were moved from 7:05 PM to 6:05 PM. The goal was to take advantage of a little more sunlight while still allowing the average, 8-5 working fan to get home/to the ballpark in time to see the game. There appears to be enough information out there now that this didn’t work.
We’re dealing with small sample sizes, but the differences appear to be at least slightly significant. In 2013, there were 17 week night games in April and May (we’re not including Opening Day, which is always a sell out, or get away starts that begin before 1:05 PM, because they are scheduled that way for other reasons) and they averaged about 16,000 fans per game. The one game that could have been considered an early start was actually a double header against the Yankees that attracted 23.3K fans between the two games. In 2014, there were 13 week night games averaging slightly more than 13.2K per game and just one start on a weekday afternoon, with 9,930 showing up for a double header against San Diego.
Essentially, the Indians had never extensively tested started games at an earlier time. While the attendance against New York was good, it always is (since 2007, the Indians have averaged 8,093 more fans per game against the Yankees than their normal home number). The 2015 season would be the first with 6:05 PM starts and they would test extensively.
Outside of Opening Day, six of 12 non-weekend, non-getaway games were moved to an earlier start time and those six games averaged 11,532 fans compared to 14,933 for the games they left at 7:10 PM. Removing the 12K+ that showed up for a Friday night fireworks display on May 22nd against Cincinnati, the 7:10 PM start time was still the more popular at 13K per game.
Of course, those results were far from conclusive and the experiment was tried again in 2016. As mentioned before, overall attendance rose significantly for the season, from 17,670 in 2015 to 19,651 in 2016 despite a removal of seats (which decreases the impact of sell outs). While much of this increase was due to the team’s overall success, it started early in the season with 53,151 fans coming to a weekend series against the Mets in mid-April with the weather in the mid-50’s.
This year, the Indians tried even more of the 6:10 PM start times (largely because they had more games in Cleveland in April and May) with 10 starts between 1 and 7 PM on week nights and just four regularly scheduled 7:10 PM week night starts in April in May. Those four games (which include the Friday game against the Mets) averaged nearly 17K per game, just under the regular season average attendance for the whole year.
This made sense. Since 2007, the team has averaged between 71% (2012) to 87% (2009) of their normal attendance for weeknight games. Games during the week have been attended by between about 1,000 (Monday) to 4,000 (Wednesday) less fans than the season average and there is a similar effect where games in April (4,234 per game less than average even when you include Opening Days) and May (-1,403) are similarly effected. It’s not surprising that week night games in April and May are slightly less attended than those during the rest of the season.
What was surprising was that the average 6:10 PM games in 2016 dropped to 10,994. Less than 10,000 fans showed up to the Tuesday and Wednesday 6:10 PM games against Seattle after that series with the Mets and the low for the season was a 6:10 PM start against Detroit on May 4th that featured Corey Kluber on the mound.
This is not an insult to Indians fans, who showed up in large order to the tune of 21,894 per game after the Indians permanently took over 1st place in the Central on June 4th. It isn’t against those in the Indians front office who decided to experiment with start times either. It was a worthy experiment, but it simply didn’t work, either for those going to games or those watching at home.
There could be reason for further experimenting by bumping games up even further. The average start time temperature for the Indians this year during April and May was just under 60° and even games that were closer to 50° would be much more comfortable to watch (and play) in the sunshine. After those two sub 10K games against Seattle, the Indians played their only true weekday day game (outside of Opening Day) in April or May and nearly 2,000 more fans showed up on a Thursday than had come on Tuesday or Wednesday. To see Cody Anderson nonetheless. The next weekday day game during the season was in July against Detroit on a Wednesday (July 6th) and 24,098 showed up. This type of game is much easier in the Summer when children are out of school, but if they are really trying to boost attendance numbers, more games even earlier in Spring could be the answer.
The Indians haven’t announced start times for 2017 yet, so we don’t know how they internally view those 6:10 PM start times, but having seen the reaction in attendance and anecdotal responses on twitter, it’s hard to imagine they view them as a success. While even earlier start times could slightly help numbers at the park, they would likely hurt the majority of fans who watch games on TV at night. Since this is where the Indians are making the majority of their profit, they may prefer to cater to those fans who won’t come to the game no matter when it’s played, but will only be able to watch on TV if it is at night.
This seems to be the answer that makes the most sense. Indians season ticket numbers are already up for next year and undoubtedly attendance will rise overall after the 2016 World Series run. While the majority of fans would prefer to go to the inevitable dollar dog and fireworks nights in the summer and 4th of July against the Padres, once it gets harder to get tickets to those games, the numbers will increase for the less favorable ones. There is no reason to further alienate the fanbase who still cares and still watches every game, just to hope for an increase in attendance by a few thousand per game, especially with no evidence that it would actually happen.
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