The Eastern Conference is a logjam. The 10th seed is only five games back of the first seed. How it looks today could be completely different come playoff time. Still, there are early signs as to which teams are truly contenders, and which are pretenders.
Contenders
Indiana Pacers (16-12)
The Pacers find themselves seventh in the East, only four games back of the first-place Cavaliers. They have a solid record of 16-12, but have had mixed results as of late, dropping a disappointing game against the Grizzlies but also recording impressive wins against the Mavericks and Raptors. Everyone expected the Pacers to be an improved team with the return of Paul George to the lineup, but what wasn’t expected was George having the best season of his career despite coming off a fractured leg injury. Led by the rejuvenated George, the Pacers are faster and smaller, but just as good at defense as the Pacer teams of a few years ago. With wins over many of the Eastern Conference teams currently in the top half of the standings, Indiana looks poised to return and make some noise in the Eastern Conference playoffs this season.
Detroit Pistons (17-13)
The Pistons are 17-13, good for eighth in the East. But they have shown early that they are able to handle the Eastern Conference’s best than teams, going 8-2 so far against teams currently in the top half of the east, including 2-0 versus the Heat. This young Detroit team has gone through some swings in success early in the season, but they have the pieces to put together a run this year. Andre Drummond is a destroyer of worlds, with no one being able to compete with him on the boards, where he generates almost all of his offense. The other young core piece is Reggie Jackson, who has exploded offensively for Detroit, averaging 20 points per game, while upping his three point percentage by five points (35 percent) compared to his career percentage (30 percent). The Jackson-Drummond duo is killing opponents in the pick-n-roll. Plus, those two core players are surrounded by shooters, including younger guns Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris as well as veterans Ersan Ilyasova and Anthony Tolliver. Detroit is inconsistent offensively, but they have the potential to make a dent this year.
Undetermined
Miami Heat (16-11)
Miami is actually ahead of Detroit and Indiana in the standings, but they have greater causes of concern that are making me not want to anoint them as contenders just yet. Similar to Detroit, Miami has been inconsistent. They boast impressive wins over Cleveland and Oklahoma City, but also have lost to Minnesota and Washington. The most concerning is their current record of 4-9 against Eastern playoff teams, a much lower mark than the young Detroit team. Miami is veteran-heavy, led by Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and hopefully Goran Dragic. Dragic has yet to find his stellar form from his time in Phoenix, and his mediocre performances so far have hurt the Heat’s offense. Wade and Bosh are as steady as ever, and neither are playing an overly high number of minutes that could be a cause for concern down the road. Further, Hassan Whiteside continues to develop instead of regressing, which some predicted would happen. He is a terror to opposing players around the basket, as he is averaging an incredible 4.0 blocks per game. Whiteside also is leading the team in boards and averaging a double-double to go along with that. Miami has the pieces and the coach to get back to a level close to where they were when LeBron was on the team, but their inconsistency and knack for losing leads late has got me worried.
Charlotte Hornets (15-13)
The Hornets are actually out of the playoffs right now, coming in at tenth in the Eastern Conference with their 15-13 record; but they were doing much better before a recent run of poor play. Going 1-5 over the last six games has pushed them down out of the top half. And although the recent performances aren’t encouraging, the stats tell a different story for Charlotte. According to their offensive and defensive ratings, Charlotte possesses both a top-10 offense and defense. One of the biggest catalysts for the team this year has been the arrival of Nicolas Batum, who has been crucial to the Hornets on both ends. With the injury to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the preseason, Batum’s ability to defend opposing wing players has saved Charlotte. He shoots the three pretty well too, and is an excellent facilitator from the wing, averaging 4.7 assists per game. Kemba Walker has also emerged as a more efficient player this year, shooting 43.7 percent from the field compared to his disappointing 38.5 percent from a year ago. But Charlotte still has questions, and their recent losses can’t be ignored. Al Jefferson has been out for injury/suspension for a while. How do they incorporate him back into the team? How do they share the minutes between their young big men like Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky? Only time will tell.
Pretenders
Orlando Magic (17-12)
It didn’t take long for the Orlando Magic to morph into a classic Scott Skiles team. This young Magic team is currently the sixth best defense in the league, a testament to the work of Skiles, as two big pieces of the team in Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic are certainly not known as defensive stalwarts. Orlando hasn’t been tested by the other Eastern teams as much, but have only gone 2-5 against them so far. Their problem, much like many of Scott Skiles’ teams, is that their offense is not up to snuff. Vucevic and Harris have strong offensive games, but players like Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and Mario Hezonja haven’t developed offensively nearly as much. One of their key young cornerstones, Victor Oladipo, has not had a good year offensively, only shooting 39.9 percent from the field and a ghastly 27.2 percent from three. He has regressed from a scoring stand point, totaling about four less points per game this season at 13.3 points. Recently, Skiles has resorted to bringing Oladipo off the bench. The Magic don’t have the offense to compete in the late stages of the Eastern Conference, and they have a lot more to develop before they can actually compete.
New York Knicks (14-16)
The New York Knicks are as up and down as they come. Before their most recent losses to the Magic and Cavaliers, the Knicks had won four straight. Before that, they lost four straight. Before that, after winning two in a row, they lost another four straight. And preceding that, the Knicks won four straight. Those complete swings have resulted in a Knicks team that is almost .500, and still easily in the playoff race, only three games out of eighth place. The biggest story of the year for New York has been the rise of rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who has shown remarkable ability to impact the game even though most scouts said he wasn’t going to do much on the court this year. Carmelo Anthony has bounced back from a rough start to the year, averaging 21 points and 7.3 rebounds. Beyond Anthony though, the New York offense is pretty bleak, as Porzingis and Arron Afflalo are the only Knicks averaging double-digit points. The Knicks are pretenders, much like the Magic, because they don’t have the offensive firepower to go anywhere. But this team is a long ways from the mess they were last year, and they are laying a strong foundation for future success.
(Editor’s Note: Standings are up to date, but stats are from prior to Dec. 23’s slate of 13 games)
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