It may just be the time of year, but one of the top discussions around Indians baseball right now involves who they may be targeting at the trade deadline and that discussion immediately heads to starting pitching.
Breaking the team down into for segments and using FanGraphs base stats for each the Indians have the fourth best bullpen (fWAR) in baseball with the best FIP. They have the 8th best offense and the 24th best defense, but the latter has already began turning around as the Indians best defender this season is already Bradley Zimmer and he replaced two centerfielders, Lonnie Chisenhall and Austin Jackson, who were both extremely negative in the field. That leaves starting pitching, where the Indians rank 5th in baseball, but nearly half of that fWAR came from Corey Kluber (3.1) with another significant chunk coming from Carlos Carrasco (2.1).
So, with an untouchable starting ten, a near best in baseball bullpen and two elite starters, the only possible improvements would come from three through five in the rotation. However, over his last 11 starts, Trevor Bauer has a 4.15 ERA, .252 average against and 65 K’s in 60.2 innings and has always shown great promise. At the same time, Mike Clevinger has posted a 3.33 ERA for the season, struck out 62 in 54 innings and has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his ten starts. While neither are at the level of Carrasco and Kluber, neither are a problem.
This leaves the elephant in the room. While there is talk all over the place (on broadcasts, TV, radio, podcasts, websites, twitter and simple reality) of the Indians needing to improve the rotation, few are willing to say publicly that the problem is Josh Tomlin. Certainly no one with the team is willing to state as much.
Early in the season, I wrote an article stating that it was probably time to move on from Tomlin while giving him all the respect he deserved for both his lengthy career and his incredible effort in September and October of 2016 after hitting an extremely rough period last August. This was easily the article that lead to the most negative feedback in years and yet it was 100% accurate.
It was written prior to the call-up of Clevinger and in his first six AAA starts this year, Mike posted a 1.50 ERA and .215 average against with 32 strike outs in 30 innings. With no opening at the time, pushing Tomlin out of the rotation for the young starter made sense and Danny Salazar‘s injury allowed Clevinger to prove just how ready he was.
Part of that article and future discussion was the fact that Tomlin should be kept around for depth, but with Salazar expected back soon, Ryan Merritt showing some Major League success this year and Shawn Morimando dominating the International League to the tune of a 3.40 ERA with three complete game shut outs, that may no longer be necessary. If the Indians were to add any Major League starter of any caliber in a trade, that would be depth in the extreme and there would no longer be any argument to keep Tomlin in any capacity on the 25 man roster.
I personally don’t believe the Indians need another starter or anything at all at the trade deadline. When he was healthy earlier this season, Salazar was one of the best strike out pitchers in baseball and if he has his command once he returns, he’s a top 30 pitcher in baseball. With Clevinger, Bauer, Merritt and Morimando both available and more talented than Tomlin, the Indians could easily field a five man rotation better than any in baseball. Even with Tomlin they’re already a top five group.
All that being said, there needs to be another plea to end Tomlin’s time with the Tribe. While he had a solid May, even during his best month he had two starts where he allowed a total of 10 runs in 8.2 innings. Since, he’s allowed 23 runs in 30 innings and, while he’s always given up a lot of home runs, that number has increased even more of late with eight allowed in his last four games. While he was once a pitcher who could be depended upon to allow about 4 runs per game, but always give you at least 5-6 innings, this season he’s had 9 starts where he’s pitched less than six innings and allowed four or more runs to just six where he’s went at least six innings and allowed less than four.
This has made it nearly impossible for the Indians to win when he is on the mound and they are 5-11 with their fifth starter on the mound. While not all these losses are his fault (he lost one game where he allowed one run in eight innings), two the five wins came in games where the Indians offense bailed him out as he allowed at least four runs in both and pitched five or fewer innings.
Tomlin is only 32 and there have been plenty of pitchers with solid seasons after 32 (Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay and Curt Schilling all had multiple exceptional seasons after that point in recent seasons), but most of those pitchers had incredible stuff in their youth, particularly near 100 MPH velocity. The chart above shows Tomlin’s velocity throughout his career and at his best he averaged less than 91 MPH on his fast ball. Now, he’s hitting only 88 on the four seamer and he has nearly abandoned the pitch in favor of his cutter and sinker which are each a few MPH slower.
Gavin Potter highlighted Tomlin’s change in pitch selection recently and the results were not good. Add into that the fact that Tomlin is currently sporting the highest WHIP of his career largely thanks to his highest walk rate since 2012. That walk rate is still best in baseball, so he still has some control, but Tomlin was always living on the edge. With a razor thin margin for success, any walks Tomlin gives up are almost certain to hurt him. With no velocity or movement on his pitches to speak of, if he misses his spots, he’s going to get hit and hard.
The Indians are a great baseball team filled with some of the best baseball players of the generation. There is a reason they were favorites to repeat as AL champions going into the season and are sending five representatives as well as their manager and coaching staff to the All-Star game. That being said, there’s one major issue that needs fixing and we shouldn’t be afraid to name that one issue. It’s name is Josh and it’s time for the Indians to stop letting loyalty get in the way of winning.
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