How do you define an elite offense? Is it one that can score on any defense? One that scores enough points to win? One that racks up insane amounts of yards? One that controls the clock for most of the game with the running game?
While all of these can be a measure of what makes a dominant offense, we’re going to look at a simpler metric today: Third Down conversions.
Last week, Mike Tomlin said he wanted the Steelers offense to grow to resemble the New England Patriots offense of 2007. That Patriots team is remembered for throwing the ball all over the field, but they were also quite efficient in the running game. That Patriots team finished 13th in the league in rushing, averaging 115.6 yards per game.
Tomlin wants the Steelers to be an elite offense, both on the ground and in the air. Let’s take a look back at some numbers that have been put up by the elite offenses of the league the last few years.
It is far too early in the season to talk about average yards per game. However, one metric we can look at is 3rd down conversions.
2006
Indianapolis defeated Chicago in the Super Bowl.
The top 5 offenses were: New Orleans, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, San Diego, and Dallas.
That season, Indianapolis led the league in 3rd down conversions, at 56.2%
Dallas, New Orleans, New York Jets, and San Diego rounded out the top 5 in 3rd down conversion percentage.
The Steelers were 6th at 42.9%
2007
The New York Giants defeated New England in the Super Bowl.
The top 5 offenses were: New England, Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans, and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis once again led the league in 3rd down conversions at 49.3%
New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Cincinnati were the rest of the top 5.
2008
The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated Arizona in the Super Bowl.
The top 5 offenses were: New Orleans, Denver, Houston, Arizona, and New England
Indianapolis led the league again in 3rd down conversions at 50.2%
New Orleans, Denver, San Diego, and Green Bay were the rest of the top 5.
The Steelers were 14th at 41.1%
2009
Now let’s look at how the Steelers have faired on 3rd down this season.
The Steelers have converted 16 of 38 third downs this season for a 42.1% success rate. On the surface, that wouldn’t seem terrible, but let’s dig a little deeper.
Of their 36 3rd down attempts, 13 have been “short yardage” (3 yards or less), 13 have been “medium yardage” (4-7 yards), and 12 have been “long yardage” (8 or more yards).
When you think about the teams that are great offenses, what do they do very well? Get into 3rd and short situations. If you remember the New England offense from 2007, one of the best things they were able to do was to get into 3rd and short situations. If they had a setback on first down, they focused on getting 6-8 yards on 2nd down (usually to Welker) to get back on the upside of down and distance.
Is it a bit troubling that the Steelers are only owning Down and Distance about 1/3 of the time? Yes.
So how have we fared? In short yardage, the Steelers have converted 7 of 13 (53.8%). In medium yardage, the Steelers are a miserable 3 of 13 (23.1%). In long yardage, the Steelers are a decent 6 of 12 (50%).
Due to the fact that Arians believes 3rd and 2 is a passing down (he has yet to run on it), it should be no surprise that the Steelers have thrown a pass on 86.8% of their 3rd downs this season. Of those, only 17 (51.5%) have actually been caught, and only 14 (42.4%) have moved the chains. Ben has been sacked 5 times on 3rd downs, and thrown 2 interceptions on 3rd downs this season. Ben does have a 60.7% completion percentage on 3rd down.
The more troubling fact is the run game. The Steelers have only converted 2 of 5 rushing attempts on 3rd down into first downs. Both of those were by Ben Roethlisberger. One was a 3rd and inches, and the other was on a scramble for the first down. Parker is 0/2 and Moore is 0/1. Arians refuses to run on 3rd and 2.
The Steelers have been in 3rd and 2 situations more than any other distance on 3rd down this year (6 times). They have converted 4, with an incompletion and a sack.
On 3rd downs, Ben has spread the ball around to 6 different receivers. Of those, he has targeted Holmes the most (10 times). However, Holmes only has 5 catches on those 10 targets. Heath has 2 catches on 3 targets, Hines 3 catches on 4 targets, Wallace 4 catches on 6 targets, Moore 3 catches on 4 targets, and Sweed with 0 catches on 1 target.
As we can see, no one is perfect, but Heath has been the most reliable thus far. Sadly, Heath is also tops on the list of extra blockers they keep in there to protect Ben when the heat is on.
So what’s the point of all this information? Cause for alarm?
Not necessarily. Don’t raise your red flags yet.
There are a few disconcerting facts. The first is the Steelers woeful ability to convert on 3rd and “medium”, at only 23%. Considering they are converting 3rd and shorts and 3rd and longs at around 50%, this is an area for improvement.
Secondly, it would be nice to see some variations in the playcalling. Passing 87% of the time on 3rd down is not the way to fool your opponent. What do New England and Indy do? Well, meet Kevin Faulk and (until this season) Domenic Rhodes. These 3rd down backs have defined the position in the NFL, being capable of running draws, catching screen passes, and blocking when need be. They are difficult to defend because you never know what they are going to do. Is Mewelde Moore this type of back? He could be, but you have to use him in different ways (that includes as a runner out of the shotgun set) for teams to slow down their 3rd down pass rush. The way things stand now, if it’s not 3rd and 1, you’d better believe the D-line is just going to pin their ears back and go, because there’s no way we’re doing anything except running.
New England and Indy are two of the most effective screen-passing teams in the league. Pittsburgh is, and has been, by far the worst. Screen passes and draw plays are great ways to slow down a pass rush on 3rd downs, which will give Ben more time to make plays. There has been a negative result (sack or INT) 21% of the time when Ben drops back to pass on 3rd down.
That’s a little more than 1 out of every 5. The Steelers are averaging almost 13 third down attempts per game. Can we afford that many negative plays?
In conclusion, how do we become an elite offense?
The best way is to stay in control of down and distance. This means trying to get into 3rd and short situations. The Steelers have not been in control of down and distance in 66% of their third downs. Of those, they have only converted 36% (or 1 out of 3).
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