Many writers and fans seem to have accepted the fact that Jacoby Ellsbury is playing his last year with the Sox. A Globe article by Nick Cafardo recently stated that one of the reasons for the drop in attendance at Fenway is some fans' anger at his impending departure.
In spring training, when Jackie Bradley Jr was tearing up the Grapefruit League, he was seen as Ellsbury's upcoming replacement. But Bradley slumped early in the season and was sent to Pawtucket, where he played fairly well. His presence as a regular in center field in 2014, however, is not a foregone conclusion.
It is true that Ellsbury's near-MVP year in 2011 was probably a fluke. It is doubtful that he will again approach 119 runs scored, 212 hits, 46 doubles, 32 homers, and 105 rbi's. This season's numbers are closer to his 08-09 years. His power figures are definitely less. If he hadn't hurt his foot, however, he would probably have scored 100-plus runs, hit close to .300, and stolen about 70 bases. Quite importantly, he covers lots of ground in the outfield.
Jacoby's shoes will not be easy to fill. For example, going into the Yankee series, the Sox were third in the AL with 111 stolen bases, but if you subtract Ellsbury's 52, the team total becomes 59 and in the middle of the pack. There seems to be little base-stealing ability in the minors. Jeff Hazelbaker had good totals at Pawtucket, but apparently is not even considered a prospect. A constant threat to steal, Ellsbury definitely helps the hitters after him. No one doubts his ability to create runs, something that the Sox traditionally have not had.
The presence of Scott Boras as Ellsbury's agent certainly sends up warning signals. I am not in favor of opening the bank for the man. But to think that the Sox could simply sign a similar performer would be a mistake. The same was said about Jonathan Papelbon, yet the team went a season and a half with virtually no closer until Koji Uehara miraculously appeared.
An important factor in how hard the front office tries to keep Ellsbury is the Sox' 2013 finish. If the Townies (heaven forbid) miss the playoffs or go out early, Ben Cherington and company may think twice about seeing him walk. But if they go further, such as deep in the ALCS, the feeling might be that they could make it without him
I can't finish this piece, however, without emphasizing something. If his foot causes him to miss even one game of the postseason, all bets are off.
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