Escaping the Lottery: Eastern Conference Edition

History suggests the Cavaliers and Pistons should feel good about their playoff chances this season.

*Aaron Fischman contributed to this piece.

As Aaron Fischman alluded to earlier this month, the lottery is not a place NBA teams like to find themselves for long periods of time. Fans can often stomach a few years of futility as long as progress is made each year, but a constant or frequent lottery presence will wear on any franchise. Where Aaron focused on the Western Conference, this article will examine the East, looking back at the records of every Eastern Conference lottery team over the past 19 seasons.

Since the 1995-96 season, eight of the 15 teams in the East have spent at least nine seasons in the lottery, with the Toronto Raptors “leading” with 13 seasons. While certainly not ideal, the Raptors’ futility was actually “bested” by two Western Conference teams — the Warriors (16) and the Clippers (14).

There is an assumption that it is easier to move out of the lottery in the East than in the West. This is true, but the margin is closer than one might think. The East averages 1.94 new lottery teams per season versus 1.67 in the West. What this also means is that over the past 19 seasons, Eastern Conference playoff teams have found it more difficult to sustain success.

The Heat have been the most successful, having only found themselves in the lottery three times in the last 19 seasons. The Bulls, Magic, and Pistons are tied for second-best, each having spent just seven seasons in the lottery. The majority of the Bulls’ time in the lottery came after Jordan’s second retirement, when they spent four straight seasons in the lottery. The Pistons have had more recent woes, having spent each of the past five seasons in the lottery.

The Bulls’ struggles points to just how hard it is to rebound following the loss of a superstar. The Magic are currently experiencing just this, as they rebuild following the loss of Dwight Howard.

With the exception of three seasons, there have been at least two new teams in the lottery, and two of those three seasons came more than 10 seasons ago. The only other time? The 2011-12 season, when none of the lottery teams were able to escape (this is the only time in 18 seasons this has happened, in either conference).

It is possible the lockout was such a distraction for teams that it made it harder to improve. Teams missed out on training camps, which is a crucial period for teams –particularly those with younger or less familiar rosters– to find continuity. Many of the lottery teams that season were young and inexperienced, so this lack of preparation likely prevented them from rising up the ranks. With that said, it’s surprising there wasn’t any turnover given the unpredictability of that season. One or two teams typically regress from year to year, but in 2011-12 it seems the only teams that did so were already in the lottery.

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1uH7LziJNMdrO7QqmJ7W0GR3z32tgLeWPVkuQ92CwrIM/pubchart” query=”oid=1196683037&format=image” width=”600″ height=”371″ /]

Beyond these numbers, there aren’t really any significant trends, but dissecting the seeds comes up with some intriguing figures. When analyzing seeds 9-15, unsurprisingly, the probability of making the playoffs the following year(s) generally increases both with the higher seed and the number of years since the lottery season being studied. The 15 seed has it the hardest of the lottery teams, with only an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs the following season. And this percentage could easily be zero, for only two teams in the East have gone from worst to the playoffs — the ‘06-07 Celtics, who would trade for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen that offseason, and the ‘07-08 Heat, who only won 15 games after losing Dwyane Wade for much of the season. 14 seeds don’t fare much better, with only a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs the next season.

Things start to get interesting with 13 seeds, who boast a significantly higher probability of making the playoffs after Year One (38 percent) than 11 seeds (22 percent) and 12 seeds (27 percent) and fare just as well, if not better, in Years Two and Three. Looking at average number of wins and losses for lottery teams the following season, 13 seeds average 11.6 more wins the following season, while 11 and 12 seeds average only 0.45 and 2.2, respectively. Additionally, 13 seeds have not regressed significantly in the past 19 seasons, never having lost eight games or more the next year, while 11 and 12 seeds have lost eight or more games 17 and 22 percent of the time, respectively. The 13 seed seems to be a springboard for many lottery teams, though only one 13 seed (the ‘02-03 Heat) finished as a top-half playoff seed.

While the 13 seed appears a nice spot for lottery teams to make significant progress, the 10 spot is where lottery teams have found the most success the following season. 61 percent of 10 seeds make the playoffs the following season, with 72 percent making the playoffs within two seasons and a staggering 94 percent making it within three seasons. In fact, only one 10 seed, the ‘08-09 Nets, didn’t make the playoffs within three seasons.

What does this mean? The Pistons, who were the 10 seed in 2011-12, have a probability rate for making the playoffs this season of 94 percent, at least according to the last 19 years of past history. The Raptors have already capitalized on finishing as the 10 seed in 2012-13, having made the playoffs last season. With the Cavaliers being last season’s 10 seed, the numbers indicate both they and the Pistons will be looking to break out of the lottery.

Seed	Avg +/- wins	P(at least 8 more wins)	P(at least 8 fewer wins)
9	-0.84	0.1111111111	0.2222222222
10	6.98	0.3333333333	0
11	0.45	0.2777777778	0.1666666667
12	2.2	0.2777777778	0.2222222222
13	11.6	0.5555555556	0
14	6.6	0.4444444444	0.05555555556
15	12.9	0.6111111111	0

10 seeds also average a staggering amount of increased wins per season compared to 9 and 11 seeds. Whereas 9 seeds have a negative average win change from season to season, 10 seeds average 6.98 more wins from one season to the next. When anyone talks about maintaining mediocrity, it appears the 9 seed is the spot to ensure that, while being the 10 seed offers a greater chance of improving. A 10 seed obviously has a worse record than a 9 seed, but it is interesting that 10 seeds see so much improvement from one season to the next, while, on average, 9 seeds tend to stay the same.

More surprisingly, 10 seeds have not once regressed by more than eight wins in the 18 years of data. Being in that position increases the opportunity to regress, but not a single 10 seed has ever lost eight or more games the season after finishing in that spot. In fact, only once has a 10 seed won fewer games the following season — the Bobcats, who went from 34 wins in 2010-11 to seven in 2011-12. Teams tend not to regress further when in this position, suggesting they are the cusp of returning to the playoffs after years in the lottery. Whereas other teams may still be looking to collect assets and develop talent for the future, 10 seeds appear to be past that stage and are ready to compete for a playoff spot again.

Going by the numbers and recent trends, it is very likely there will be two teams from the 2013-14 Eastern Conference lottery that will make the playoffs this season. The obvious choice is the Cavaliers — the return of LeBron and the trade for Kevin Love makes them an instant contender. They finished last season as the 10 seed and the two seasons before that as the 13, and as the numbers suggest, finishing as the 10 or 13 seed bodes well for teams looking to make the playoffs in the near future.

The other team to look for, as already stated, is the Pistons. While they have seen little improvement record-wise over the past couple seasons, history indicates they have a high likelihood of making the playoffs, which makes one wonder if Stan Van Gundy will pull off a miraculous turnaround.

Sadly, the Knicks may find themselves out of the playoffs once again after finishing as last year’s 9 seed. The last time a team dropped out of the playoffs to finish ninth and make the playoffs the following season was the ‘01-02 Bucks.

Ultimately, the Eastern Conference has produced inferior teams over the past nearly two decades, but that makes it slightly easier for teams determined to make the playoffs. According to the numbers, finishing as the 10 or 13 seed is the place to be if you want your franchise to make the playoffs within the next three years, while finishing 11th or, unsurprisingly, 14th or 15th suggests years of futility may be in store. It should be interesting to see if these trends hold up this season, or if an unexpected twist throws the numbers game out of whack.