The 49ers knew going into the season that they couldn’t compete with Shaun Hill at quarterback if they fell two touchdowns behind in any game or if they got into a shootout. After the 49ers had 28 three-and-outs and saw stacked defenses against the run, head coach Mike Singletary benched Hill and went with Alex Smith, who has a stronger arm and more athletic ability. Don’t expect Hill to keep up with Peyton Manning, who has 22 touchdown drives in 61 offensive possessions this season. Smith might not get 22 touchdown drives the rest of the season. In his first NFL start in 2005, Smith threw four picks against the Colts.
1. San Francisco needs to get physical on offense early. The 49ers have started off the season with a strong, physical ground game that’s backed up with an efficient passing attack working off of the play-action fake. The Colts have an undersized defense that relies on explosive quickness, speed and athleticism. San Francisco will want to attack the front seven with that aggressive ground game so it can open up the rest of its offense.
Accuscore loves the Colts at 84%
The 49ers do not have much of a chance to beat the Colts, but QB Alex Smith does give a slightly better chance winning 15 percent with Smith and 10 percent with Shaun Hill. The 49ers need to get a huge 100 rushing yard 1+ TDs from Frank Gore and at least 1 TD each from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to pull off the upset. In these simulations the 49ers have a 52 percent chance. The 49ers cannot expect the Colts to make mistakes. There is only a 38 percent chance the Colts have 2 or more turnovers. If the Colts do have 2 or more turnovers the 49ers chances improve from 13 to 22 percent.
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