ESPN’s game day previews

These are good reads. First, 10 things to pay attention to

3. Jacksonville will bring pressure up the middle as well as off the edges with their base four-man front: Head coach Jack Del Rio and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker want to force Manning into getting the ball out sooner than he’d like to and will ask their front four to collapse the pocket up the middle as well as provide some heat coming off the edge. They would prefer to drop maximum defenders into coverage in order to clog up the passing lanes.

Here’s the numbers and accuscore break down

The Colts run defense could struggle due to injuries to Bob Sanders. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 80 rushing yards and 0.55 rushing TDs per simulation. There is a 22 percent chance he can have 100+ rushing yards with at least 1 TD and if MJD dominates the Jaguars actually pull ahead winning nearly 59 percent of simulations. The Jaguars defense had 20 interceptions in 2007, but just 13 in 2008. If the Jaguars do not intercept Peyton Manning at least once their chances plummet to just 21 percent, however, if the Jaguars defense can re-establish themselves as an elite unit with 3+ sacks and 1+ interceptions the Jags actually can pull off the upset winning 51 percent of sims.