Eulogizing the 2014-15 Ottawa Senators

It happened again.

Since reaching the 2007 Stanley Cup Final, the Senators are out of the playoffs before the start of the second round. It is the seventh time it has happened in the past eight years.

Had you told me before the start of the season that the Senators were to endure another season in which they would clinch a wild card position only to be ousted in the first round, I would have been disappointed.

For years this organization has flirted with playoff contender status without taking a significant step forward.

There simply comes a point in time when you expect more from a collection of players who have essentially played together for the past few seasons and actually experienced some modicum of playoff success with their win over the Canadiens in 2013.

Even in the aftermath of the win-now Bobby Ryan trade that fast-tracked Ottawa’s rebuild movement and was designed to make the Senators more competitive, I keep waiting for the Senators to take that next step and stop being content with just reaching the postseason.

Of course, in saying all of this, it completely ignores months of context: how the Senators reached the postseason was unprecedented. It was a miraculous run that captured the imaginations and hearts of its fan base and culminated with fans throwing hamburgers on the ice after victories.

Like a thrown patty that stayed within its bun throughout its airborne journey from the stands to the Canadian Tire Centre ice, the results on the ice these past few months defied logic.

Unlike previous years that saw streaky Senators teams win just often enough to sneak into the postseason, this season’s incarnation did the unthinkable and became the first organization in NHL history to overcome a 14-point deficit at the beginning of February to reach the postseason.

The 2014-15 Senators will forever be the poster-child for teams that are out of the playoff race.

The fact that Ottawa accomplished what it did on the back of a 27-year old inexperienced professional in Andrew Hammond just added to the allure. It was something ripped out of the scripts of an improbable Hollywood sports movie and you can only hope that it will make for an ESPN ‘30 for 30’ documentary one day.

Normally when a team bows out in the playoffs, fans can attribute it to some fatal flaw: a struggling power play, a lack timely saves, inexplicable player usage decisions by the coaching staff, injuries, or whatever. Not this team. Not this season.

Because of what happened these past few months, it is almost impossible not to romanticize what Ottawa did. On local radio, Ian Mendes is often referring to this as perhaps the most likeable team in the franchise’s history. There result has been an absolute groundswell of support for this organization, and this endearing sample size of success just makes it that much more difficult to process or take a critical eye to this organization and its season.

After how the first few months unfolded, the Senators had no business reaching the postseason. It never should have happened. That they managed to do it while two critical members of the organization fought and continue to fight through terminal illnesses just added another layer to their story and makes it that much more remarkable. Sure, the Senators may not have been able to “win it all” for assistant coach Mark Reeds, but they gave it their best shot.

Now that the season has concluded, it’s important for fans to take a step back and reflect upon how special this run was.

Be proud of it and look back at it fondly because like Bryan Murray rolling the dice on a Russian like Nikita Filatov, you will never see it happen again. Just think about that for a second, irrespective of how good the Senators team may be somewhere down the line, we will never see a historic run like this again in our lifetime.

(Pause for dramatic effect)

At the same time however, there needs to be a proportionately measured response that realizes that Ottawa’s second-half performance shouldn’t be viewed exclusively through a blissfully optimistic prism that portends guaranteed future success.

In saying that, I’m not saying that there aren’t plenty of things to get excited about. I want to know the answers to questions like: Can Mike Hoffman match this year’s even strength production and hopefully add to his offensive totals by taking on a larger responsibility on the power play? Can Cody Ceci and Patrick Wiercioch continue to develop and become a formidable pairing behind Marc Methot and Erik Karlsson? Will the leadership continue to transition from the older and least talented guys to those who are actually the heartbeat of this team? Can Mark Stone replicate and sustain his elite-level offensive production that he enjoyed from the beginning of the 2015 calendar year? With Daniel Alfredsson appearing a number of times next to Bryan Murray in the pressbox during games, is he nearing a decision to join the hockey operations staff? What can Erik Karlsson do in a full season now that he’s healthy and isn’t saddled by the likes of Chris Phillips, Jared Cowen or Mark Borowiecki for the first 30 games of the season? What do the Senators have planned for the LeBreton Flats’ site? Can Curtis Lazar and Jean-Gabriel Pageau develop and put up significantly better offensive numbers next season? Will this mercifully be the last we ever see of the Borowiecki/Gryba pairing?

These are just a few of the things that I came up with off the top of my head, but obviously there are many more reasons to like this team beyond the ones that I just listed.

In saying that, it’s not all blowjobs and unicorns either.

Over the past few hours, I have seen a number of people suggesting that this can only be a positive learning experience for its players, but more than anything (and I can’t emphasize this enough), this needs to be a learning experience for the coaching staff and the management.

Player usage this season was and continued to be somewhat of a problem throughout the course of the season. Although a lot of these personnel issues occurred under Paul MacLean’s watch, it’s impossible to ignore how Dave Cameron benefited from injuries to redundant veterans that allowed him to rely upon younger and better alternatives without having to massage any veteran egos.

Even then, it’s hard to overlook the organization’s concerted effort to dress a more conservative lineup once the games became more meaningful down the stretch. Mike Hoffman, the team’s most efficient and productive scorer all season, was buried on the team’s fourth line down the stretch and into the postseason because for all the possession-driving and offensive-minded qualities that Hoffman brings to the table, the coaching staff dreaded his defensive lapses.

Rather than focus on the positives that Hoffman brought to the team’s second line, the organization obsessed over his weaknesses at a time of the season when the MO was to limit your mistakes. Only when conservatism and the coaching staff’s conventional wisdom failed and staked the Canadiens to a 3-0 series lead did Hoffman get reunited with his regular linemates, the effect and results were immediate.

Personnel decisions weren’t exclusive to the coaching staff however. As Glenn Healy also noted during Ottawa’s first round series versus Montreal, the Senators worked the phones hard trying to move Patrick Wiercioch all season long.

Wiercioch was 5 minutes from being dealt at deadline. Other team involved never called back becuz they had another deal fall apart. #Sens

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) April 28, 2015

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Despite all the quantitative and qualitative evidence to suggest that Wiercioch deserved a bigger and more important role, he was jerked around for a significant portion of the season and sat while the organization exhausted every opportunity for inferior players like Jared Cowen, Mark Borowiecki and Chris Phillips.

Admittedly, I’ve always been a Wiercioch mark, but it’s impossible to ignore how much of a positive effect he had on Cody Ceci. Together, they gave Ottawa something that it lacked: a defensive unit behind Methot/Karlsson that would not get dominated territorially.

Trading Wiercioch is just the latest in a series of mistakes that the Senators have barely avoided. I mean, this is the same staff that investigated the possibility of bringing David Clarkson into the fold back in February.

All we can do at this point is hope that Senators management has learned from its mistakes.

Considering all the readily available data out there that could support the decision-making process and help optimize the lineup and help reduce the margin of error for a team that is already at a competitive disadvantage because of its payroll limitations, I hope the organization finds some individual(s) who can mitigate the risks that this organization takes or add different perspectives to the hockey discussions. (Note: and if this individual or individuals already exist, I really hope that they get a bigger voice at the table or do a better job next season.)

The learning process…

The good news is that Ottawa’s stretch of success can provide invaluable lessons for management.

One of my favourite Bryan Murray quotes came earlier this month when he said, “We’re more and more convinced it’s a young man’s game now,” so it goes to show that they are capable of learning.

Maybe they will punt some redundant veteran depth for younger and cheaper alternatives or maybe management will finally shelf its intent to add another top six forward to the mix when the blue line has served as the organization’s Achilles heel for the past number of years. Maybe management will stop assuming that its defencemen will become exponentially better simply because they are relatively young.

It is great that the organization has finally recognized this trend to build and emphasize the importance of youth, but it will be interesting to see how the organization remedies their current situation.

Assuming that the Senators’ budget for payroll remains in the vicinity of where it lies now, its roster detritus will account for approximately 40-percent of this team’s payroll budget.

Although the Senators are fortunate enough to be locked into any of these deals beyond the conclusion of the 2016-17 season, the reality is that they hamstring the budget and the organization is going to endure some difficulty in shedding their contracts.

Colin Greening will assuredly be bought out. Even though Dave Cameron intimated that he expects Chris Phillips to be ready at the start of training camp following his back surgery, he could ultimately decide to retire. Maybe there will be markets for gritty veterans like Neil or Smith or maybe the Senators can even entice someone to roll the dice on a big defenceman with pedigree like Cowen…

…Or maybe not.

The complication these contracts create is a lack of financial flexibility when it comes time to re-sign their RFAs and UFAs. Impending UFA Erik Condra has more utility than any of the forwards on the list above, but he might be a roster casualty because the team may not be able to shed enough of these deals. Provided that Ottawa’s budget does not grow, I also have concerns about how vulnerable the Senators are to offer sheets for players like Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and/or Mika Zibanejad.

On the subject of contracts, Bobby Ryan’s situation going forward will be interesting to watch unfold. Signed to a seven-year contract extension worth $50.75 million ($7.25M average annual value) that kicks in next season, he will be under a lot more pressure and scrutiny than what he has experienced to this point. Suffice it to say, the honeymoon will be over.

What Ryan has going for him is that he is an affable guy who is savvy with the media and exceptional with his fans. He is a great ambassador for the team, but in a business where you’re judged according to your recent production aligns with your contractual terms, the Senators need more out of him than the 41 goals and 102 points that he has scored in the 148 games that he has spent in a Senators jersey.

In fairness to Ryan, his production has most certainly been marred by injuries over the past two seasons. In saying that however, he’s 28-year old forward who keeps getting hurt. His best years may already be behind him, so great guy or not, should his production continue to wane, everyone will forget the context surrounding his acquisition when they are too busy focusing on the term remaining on his deal.

Ottawa’s goaltending situation will also need some resolution. After matching some historical records and landing himself a ‘McDonald’s for life’ card, Andrew Hammond (20-1-2 in 23 starts this season) has made a name for himself and will land somewhere in unrestricted free agency if a one-way deal cannot be reached here in Ottawa. (Or he could also be the guy some fans curse in two to five years from now for playing Ottawa out of a lottery position.)

Even before Hammond’s emergence, rumours circulated linking the Senators to the Edmonton Oilers in trade discussions involving Robin Lehner. Following that, there were reports of frustration within the Senators organization concerning Craig Anderon’s frequent injuries – but that was before Anderson filled in for a struggling Hammond and stood on his head in posteason, reminding fans of what made Anderson the talk of the town through the first few months of the season.

The problem facing the Senators is that each of the goaltending trade scenarios is characterized by a significant amount of risk and upside. In signing Hammond (or even collegiate UFA Matt O’Connor), it affords Ottawa the flexibility to move one of its more professionally accomplished goaltenders. On the other hand, maybe Hammond was a flash in the pan and should an injury befall the organization’s appointed number one goaltender, Hammond may not be a reliable enough guy to fill in.

At 33 years of age, Anderson may be the organization’s oldest goaltender, but he offers the safest floor for performance. Set to earn $4.75-million in real dollars next season (carrying a $4.2-million cap hit), he is also the most expensive option and can probably net the best return in a trade. Provided that the Senators have enough trust in their goaltending to overcome Anderson’s departure, the Senators could always allocate Anderson’s salary to address another weakness on the roster. His age and continued effectiveness may not be congruent with the age and development of the young core. (As an aside, it is also interesting to note the coincidence between the number of games played in a season by Anderson and a drop in his peripheral numbers. The more he plays, the worse it seems his numbers become.)

Keeping that latter point in mind, maybe it is in Ottawa’s interest to roll the dice on Robin Lehner. The young Swede was anointed as the Senators’ goaltender of the future years ago. Considering Lehner turned professional at the age of 19, sometimes it is easy to forget just how young he is because it feels like he has played within the minors for so long. To put things in perspective, Lehner is the same age as Matt O’Connor, the 23-year old collegiate free agent from Boston University.

Or maybe the Senators looks at Lehner and questions whether or not he will fulfill the lofty projections that many have placed upon him. Attrition happens all the time with highly touted prospects and goalies are voodoo. For such a volatile position, the science of determining which ones will or won’t pan hasn’t exactly been perfected. Perhaps Lehner is the sort of enticing young asset that the Senators can use in a package to land a better player.

What is Going On Upstairs?

Like the Senators’ goaltending situation, Ottawa’s front office situation remains clouded. As Bryan Murray continues his courageous fight against his stage-four colon cancer, no formal announcement on his future has been made by the organization.

If the organization decides to appoint a successor to Murray, it potentially means a new voice, with new ideas and someone who has to learn and assess the players who are already in the fold.

Going a little further up the organizational ladder, it’s hard to ignore how conspicuously silent Senators owner Eugene Melnyk has been over the past number of months. Essentially since the time that the Senators were announced as one of the accepted bids for LeBreton Flats’ development, the owner went dark. There were no interviews and only a handful of tweets. Events like Alfredsson being awarded the key to the city, Phillips setting the franchise record with his 1,179^th career game, the Hamburglar tying Frank Brimsek’s 77-year old record, passed without any mention.

It was completely uncharacteristic of him and it made me wonder what was going on, if anything, with him. At the same time, it was actually kind of refreshing to see Melnyk stay out of the limelight during this successful run of games. Instead of grabbing headlines for what he said to reporters, he got attention for making fantastic gestures like hosting the two girls who were harassed by Habs fans at the Bell Centre in his owner’s box for game three.

For the first time in a long time, everything was about the hockey and the on ice product. This sense of normalcy felt really, really good.

Conclusion

Be proud of this team and what it has accomplished, but don’t hesitate to expect more from this organization. That might sound weird considering how the Senators reached the postseason, but expectations are inevitably going to rise for next year’s version of the Senators.

The organization simply cannot rest on its laurels and be lulled into a sense of accomplishment, there is a still lot of work to be done. Every offseason is important, but this summer is setting itself up to be something different. Management has acknowledged how they are “convinced it’s a young man’s game now”. Well, let’s see them back up those words with some decisive action because this summer is only going to serve as a barometer to measure how much the organization has learned and grown from its past mistakes.