I’m not sure many people expected the Celtics to be 6-4 after 10 games, especially after the way the season started. But the Celtics have whipped off some impressive wins in unexpectedly impressive ways. Even if you thought the Celtics could beat Atlanta, OKC, and Houston in consecutive games, there are few who thought they’d do so pulling away.
There are a few reasons why this is happening. First and foremost, their defense has been dominant. They are constantly creating live-ball turnovers that start fast breaks and easy scoring opportunities.
There are also important individual contributions. Isaiah Thomas, obviously, is playing very well. Jared Sullinger has been impressive. Amir Johnson is really starting to come on as an anchor of this defense.
And then there’s Evan Turner.
Some people wanted Turner banished after the Celtics slow start… and I was absolutely leading the charge. Since then, though, Turner has been almost indispensable in this stretch of success.
With Evan Turner on the court, the Celtics effective field goal percentage (a measure that adds weight for 3’s) is 49.9%. With him off the court, it drops to 43.6%. The Celtics offensive rating with Turner is 108.8! That’s an elite number. With him off the court, it’s 95.3%.. a 13.5% difference.
It doesn’t end there. Opponents are shooting 20% worse with Turner on the floor, and have an offensive rating 0f 92.2. With Turner on the bench, the offensive rating goes up to 101.8.. nearly a 10% difference. That’s a net positive of about 23 points per 100 possessions.
Not enough evidence for you?
Evan Turner is in 7 of the Celtics top 10 3-man lineups (click to enlarge)
We see it on the floor. The non-stats, all-eye-test AUERBACH system agrees that Turner looks impactful on the floor. He looks like he’s playing well, which jives with the numbers. But here’s what’s really weird about Turner’s big impact.
Many of his other offensive numbers are down.
- His PER is 11.6… Good for 214th in the league… and that’s down from last season’s PER of 12.8
- His true shooting percentage is 10 points worse than last year (47.2% this year).
- His assist percentage is down to 19.2.. below his career average and WAY below last year’s 30%
Where’s Turner’s success coming from? Well… in today’s pace-and-space world where teams want 3’s and dunks and are allergic to the mid-range game, Turner has, of course, thrived there. He’s shooting 42% from the field, which isn’t good, but check out his percentages from mid-range:
3-10 feet: 2014-15: 30.9% 2015-16: 45.5%
10-16 feet: 2014-15: 44.9% 2015-16: 46.2%
16+ feet (non 3): 2014-15: 40.8% 2015-16: 41.2%
He’s not getting to the restricted area much… but he’s getting these short-to-medium mid-range shots and, right now, he’s burying them. Any argument that he still should not be shooting those because they’re still inefficient should be stuffed because he’s a 22% 3-point shooter. Evan Turner is a mid-range player and he’s making mid-range shots. On this team, where so many guys are playing the new style, Turner is filling gaps and making a positive offensive impact in places few guys go anymore.
Of course, it’s only been 10 games. It’s hard to make long-term determinations when only 12% of the season has been played. And Turner hasn’t inspired much confidence that he’s going to carry this level of play and importance over the remaining 88% of the year. But right now, it’s working. It’s weird, and it’s in no way in line with the way basketball is being played today, but Turner has been immensely important for the expectation-exceeding Boston Celtics through the first 10 games.
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