Every Halo fan’s hidden fear

By Jason Sinner – Angelswin Columnist

We wanted Miguel Cabrera. It would have given every Halo fan that warm fuzzy feeling inside. We would have been able to say that we match up with the big boys……on paper. Maybe!Now we are left with debating the pros and cons of what we have or have not done. Many are left with the notion that regardless of whether we win the AL west, we will not stack up come playoff time. In a previous article, I hypothesized that if we could win it all with the team we had in 2002, then we could easily do the same in 2008, as we may in fact, have a better team than we did that year. The main counterpoint to that being the other 2008 teams are better equipped that those we faced in 2002. So I got to thinking, which is always dangerous. What’s the real reason for the perceived inadequacy some harbor?

Let’s start with a side by side comparison of our playoff squads in the MS era:

Lineups

*in 2004 we had Glaus at DH for 29 games but lost Guillen for the playoffs.

Pitching

From an offensive standpoint, Figgy and GMJ can easily equal that of Eck and Erstad. 3-4-5 hit 81hrs in 2002 and I think the 2008 version can come very close to that and hit for a higher AVG. 6-9 are pretty similar with the 2008 squad having a great deal more upside. Overall, the ’08 team will have quite a bit more bench depth and the edge in speed. From a pitching standpoint, the 2008 starters are far more dominant 1-5 and a top 3 of Lackey/Escobar/Weaver would be a very strong playoff rotation. The 02 team has the bullpen edge although I think the 2007 pen underachieved and could certainly be quite a bit better in 08. Last years team dealt with a ton of injuries, but if the 08 team stays healthy as the 2002 team did, then watch out.

What about the competition in those years?

2008 outlook

Keep in mind that I, personally, take nothing for granted. The team still has to go out and win. This is just a comparison based off of what we currently have on paper.

Going off the raw team numbers, the ’02 team had a differential of over 200. Clearly the sign of a damn good team. That year the Yanks also had a similar differential and Oakland was solid top to bottom with a power filled lineup and real good pitching. The outlook for the above teams in ’08 is similar. BOS, CLE, and NYY are similar to last years teams and therefore we can assume that on paper they will post a similar differential. Meaning near 200 runs for both NYY and BOS and about 100 for CLE. Last years DET team has made some offensive upgrades adding Cabrera, and Renteria, their pitching is slightly better with the addition of Dontrelle Willis and loss of Miller. They had a power packed offense last year that will likely be even better, but is that enough to turn a 90 run differential into near 200? I doubt it.

Come playoff time one of the above teams obviously cannot make it. The Halos, Boston, Cle and Det certainly have the edge in terms of starters, and the Halos and Boston have the bullpen edge. The Yanks and Det are the offensive minded teams. So let’s play a little more ‘what if’. What if we perform where I think we can in 2008. None of the above teams are head and shoulders above the Halos, and they are certainly not apples and oranges compared to the playoff teams of 2002.

Now let’s tackle the real reason why there is the perception that we are a tier below any of those teams mentioned. It’s the giant pink elephant in the middle of the room. The Boston Red Sox! That’s right, I said it. The only time we develop a sudden inferiority complex is when our arch nemesis has a team good enough to make the playoffs. Our franchise has made the playoffs 7 times in their 46 year history. We have lost in the playoffs six of those times, and three of them to the Red Sox. Once in extremely dramatic fashion and the other two via old fashion whoopings. We don’t fear Oak, or NY, or Det, or Cle. If, in 2008, the Yanks won the East, Det the Central, LAA the West, and Cle the wild card, there wouldn’t be even a remote hint of fear in any Halo fans’ eyes. But if Boston squeezes in as an 85 win wild card team, all of a sudden we magnify every deficiency our team has.

Let’s all recognize this for what it is. Post-Traumatic-Stress-Disorder. Nothing more. We are not a second tier team. If we can come close to the numbers we put up in 2002 then on paper we are better than the Cle’s and Det’s of the world and on par with Bos and NY. We just can’t beat the Red Sox in the playoffs. Recently, we haven’t even come close. But, we changed our playoff mojo in 2002, so who’s to say we can’t do it again.