So I’ve been on vacation the last little while. During a few minutes of downtime the other day, I took some time to catch up on the ongoing Ryan Johansen saga. I posted some of my thoughts on Twitter the other day, but this whole thing is just too complicated and nuanced to really do justice in 140 characters (or even several continued 140 character segments). So here are my full thoughts on this ridiculousness: Everyone is wrong. And most of the thoughts, comments, and what not from those involved in this saga (and even those not) make me hate everything.
So this will most likely come off as a support of Ryan Johansen. Let me clear this up right now in caps and bold. THIS IS NOT A SUPPORT OF RYAN JOHANSEN’S CONTRACT DEMANDS. Hopefully that is now clear. Seriously, if anyone comments on this post or on Twitter directed at me about supporting him I will seriously flip out. His current demands are ridiculous. They are long term, UFA year desires for a non-arbitration RFA. His comments about a bridge deal offer made earlier in the offseason were also ridiculous and indefensible. He’s been quiet since, and his camp (primarily agent Kurt Overhardt) have been saying all the right things to the media. I have a feeling Johansen went off book for those comments and was since read the riot act. Also, I will not harp about Overhardt, or put any extra blame on him, or any of that nonsense. He is not the enemy or the problem or anything. He is part of the system and working within it as he should. From now on, I will refer to Ryan Johansen, Johansen, or some derivative of that when referring to the entire Johansen, Overhardt, or Johansen’s “camp” or “party” or whatever. I will not be singling out Ryan Johansen the person in those references. One more important point before I move on from Johansen. Their side is the only side to initially show any movement.The only major concession given by either side was Johansen agreeing to a bridge deal. Further, his initial long term demands were reasonable. They bought up UFA years. And they bought them up at a steep discount. Look at what good top line players get in unrestricted free agency now. It’s $10m or more to lock down a star forward. By the time Johansen hits unrestricted free agency, that will no doubt be higher. Buying up UFA years now on a $7ish million dollar contract could mean Johansen is underpaid by half during his first UFA eligible years (aka years 5 and 6 of a 6 year deal, which could be coming at a time when he’d be worth $12-14 million per season). That kind of per year figure is crazy right now on a bridge deal, but I assume Johansen thought giving a major concession like a bridge deal would have meant a fairly major concession in salary on said bridge deal. When it didn’t, this became a staring contest.
That is ultimately what it is right now. The Jackets refuse to budge upward, while Johansen waits for a concession in response to his concession. Ever have a staring contest as a kid? Some kids would snap their fingers at you, and wave their hands around, stick their tongue out, just do anything to distract you from that actual task at hand and get you to break. That is exactly what the Blue Jackets are doing right now. And their tactics here is what is driving me crazy. I just do not see the upside here for this team. It would be one thing if there were hard and fast comparables to string up alongside Johansen. But there aren’t. PK Subban keeps getting lobbed around, but he wasn’t quite the same player he is now when he signed that deal, he is a defensemen, the lockout had just ended, and the cap for that season was set for $60m. Nazem Kadri is close-ish, but he was a second liner, doesn’t have the measurables or near the upside of Johansen, was coming off a lockout shortened season, and was riding an unsustainable shooting percentage. Johansen is a little high in that regard, but he could very well have the talent of a 13% shooter. Kadri is certainly not in the range of 17%. That may not sound like a huge difference, but Johansen would have been a 40 goal scorer with those numbers last year. This is all besides the point, as the comps are irrelevant to my point. The real point is that there is no upside in the Jackets approach to this negotiation.
It’s the ultimate cut off the nose to spite the face. The best case scenario for the Jackets is to save a million or two for ownership. Despite what some people think, this will do nothing for other negotiations with players, it won’t mess up their salary structure, it won’t impact Johansen’s future contracts, it won’t impact Bobrovsky or anyone else’s contracts. Those will be influenced by their actual comparables around the league. The Jackets have oodles of cap space, supposedly don’t have a budget, but are refusing to get near market value for Johansen. Just when the reputation as a cheapskate, Mickey Mouse organization were starting to fade (and believe me they existed, especially among players), they management team pulls this crap. What purpose did any of their comments this week serve? They were simply to try and shame Ryan Johansen into signing. They were to turn the fanbase against him. How is that a good strategy? It makes you look terrible to other players, as they organization has shown they clearly value scrimping for pennies over the players. Everyone knows it’s a business, but it doesn’t need to be that much of a business. The difference between the Blue Jackets offer and what it would probably take to get Johansen under contract sound like a lot, but it really isn’t. The dollars involved are a fortune to me, and the difference alone is probably more than Ryan Johansen has earned in his career so far, but they are a rounding error to ownership. Saving money here helps some other teams next offseason, helps ownership save a tiny bit, and gets management some slaps on the back. That is it. That’s the upside of hardlining this. The downside is running Johansen out of town the first chance he gets, scaring off potential free agents, pissing off the other guys in the locker room (they are all probably wary about the team bringing their dirty laundry public when their negotiations come up), and turning this whole thing into a sideshow.
I have to board a plane shortly, so I’m going to wrap this up quick. Everyone points to the PK Subban situation as working out great. And it did for everyone. Canadiens got him cheap, PK eventually got his money. So say Johansen signs cheap (say two years, $7m total). The Jackets are happy. He’s in the lineup. But Nathan Horton nevers gets healthy. Murray starts having injury problems, or his development flatlines. Wiz can’t stay healthy. Johnson is Johnson. Foligno walks after the year. Bobrovsky’s play levels off. The promising prospects are never more than prospects. None of those are out of the realm of possibility. Even with Johansen knocking off two more 30 goal years, that team is probably not a playoff team. Johansen then goes to arbitration for his next deal, which will also be ugly. Then he walks. He’s just gone. That’s the downside of this approach.
So if I were the Jackets, I’d be moving my offer up and getting this thing done as soon as possible. They should have made this as painless as possible now, for the sake of the future. A little extra money coughed up now (when that money does not matter cap or budget-wise) would have probably saved them losing Johansen in the future (worst case) or paying out the nose for his next deal should he continue to trend up in his play (best case). If he becomes a consistent 30-40 goal, 80 point top line center, is he going to be friendly in his next negotiation? Of course not. He’s going to bleed the team for every cent he can get. There will be no hometown discounts for the Jackets from Johansen. That sucks. However, Johansen needs to drop his damned demands. It’s now time for some final offer negotiating. Tell the Jackets two years and $10m total, or I’ll go play in the KHL for a year. At least come down to a reasonable bridge deal. This is stupid and ruining hockey this season for me already. Both sides need to stop with the tantrums, get their crap together and get this done. Seriously.
[Editor’s note, the long-term deals later offered by CBJ were not considered movement, as it is the author’s belief that the CBJ should have moved on money, not term. More commentary on this to come.]UPDATE: So when I wrote this, I was furiously (in both senses) typing to get it down before I had to board a plane. In my haste, I skipped a paragraph I had in my head regarding the actual substance of the offers the Blue Jackets made public. The short term offer is slightly above what Nazem Kadri received, and Johansen should be more than slightly above him. It’s not an unreasonable starting point, but it’s absolutely unreasonable to refuse to budge from that point.
Regarding the long term offers, well those are just not particularly good offers. They are very damn close to matching Evander Kane’s contract. That doesn’t sound unreasonable, but Kane’s contract was signed two years ago based on similar career and nearly identical platform year performance (see the Kane subsection of the Johansen section here). The Jackets offer does not include a premium for being a center, or his importance to the Jackets (compared to Kane), nor does it account for salary inflation. Again, those offers would not be bad starting places, but that’s what they are, and I think the team thinks they are fantastic offers that Johansen should take in a heartbeat. Maybe two years ago that was the case, but Johansen knows about the massive Canadian TV contract that’s been signed since then, the coming jumps in the salary cap, and the movement the cap has made over the last few years. The Jackets are pretending these things haven’t happened, or hoping Johansen doesn’t realize them. The cap is expected to exceed $74m for the 2015-16 season, a $5m jump from this coming year that was already a $5m jump from last year. That kind of movement in the cap needs to be taken into account for any long term deals, and the Jackets haven’t done that. Johansen’s asking price of $7m per season isn’t crazy on a long term deal that buys up some UFA years. If he develops as hoped/expected, he could very well be underpaid by 50% if the cap keeps going up (and therefore star players salaries). I wouldn’t be shocked for top line 30 goal centers to be making around $14m per year for UFA years by then.
One other thought on this: I’ve seen it said that giving Johansen a little too much now will set the bar for his future contract negotiations. This is rubbish. Say the Jackets give him $5m per year for two years. If he scores 30 goals both years, he’s more than a $5m player and his old salary won’t matter. If he stagnates, and is worth $5m, well that’s fine he can have another short deal about where he is (i.e. will not have shown he deserves a raise). If he trails off in play, and refuses to take a pay cut, there is always team elected salary arbitration at that point. The Jackets can file for arbitration and get a reduced salary for Johansen.
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