Examining Okafor’s Impact at Duke

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

While undergoing The Process, the Sixers offense has been dead last in offensive rating the last two years. A big reason for optimism that the ranking will rise from absymal to below average levels is the insertion of Jahlil Okafor into the lineup. The thinking not only goes that he can be a release valve as a one-on-one scoring option in the post, but his presence should also command attention from help defenders and make it easier for those around him to get shots off. Piggybacking off an idea posited by Max Rappaport (who you should definitely be following if you’re not already), I wanted to see how Jahlil helped his teammates in the three-point shooting department during his season at Duke. The results are below:

Now, there are obviously a number of caveats to consider when looking at this data, the first of which is that there aren’t many data points. Due to the heavy featuring of freshmen on the Blue Devils’ roster last season, there simply weren’t a lot of guys who played substantial minutes on the perimeter for at least the last two years at Duke. Plus, one of those guys in Rasheed Sulaimon was dismissed from the team halfway through the season (although he still put up more threes in the half-year than either of his previous two full seasons.

Still, I found it interesting that neither of Okafor’s teammates saw discernible improvement in their three-point shooting percentages, basically hovering around their career averages. I didn’t quite expect that, especially since these are still young kids who you might expect to see progress from year-to-year simply because their individuals games are continuing to improve. It’s also worth remembering that Okafor was preceded by Jabari Parker and Mason Plumlee down low, both NBA players themselves. Nevertheless, Okafor is purported to be a generational talent on the block, and having seen his prowess in passing out of double teams, I certainly expected to see some sort of upward tick.

Really though, this certainly isn’t enough data to form any firm conclusions. I have no doubt that Big Jah in the lineup will make some headway in improving the Sixers offense. Likely, the upgrade from Henry Sims to Jahlil Okafor at the pro level will make more of an impact than Jabari Parker or Mason Plumlee to Jahlil Okafor at the college level. Regardless, seeing whether guys like Robert Covington and Jerami Grant are able to improve on their percentages as the season progresses with Big Jah down low will be one of the more interesting storylines to keep an eye on this season.