You’d think the Bills running back situation would be all set heading into this offseason and how this post should be about 2 sentences long.
However, when both your star running backs are heading into their contract years, things can change before they even get to that point. For the most part, Bills fans love CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. They are pretty much our interchangeable version of Batman and Robin.
If you like Fred more, you probably are in love with the way he punishes defensive players, being an underdog, and is just oozing with leadership. If you like CJ more, you probably love his homerun threat and how at his best he’s probably been better than Fred.
Either way, I don’t think there’s a Flutie/Johnson type of heated debate with either of these guys amongst fans, but there could be a debate heading into this offseason about keeping both or losing one of them.
Fred Jackson– Major props for Fred Jackson being able to rebound after a disappointing 2012 season. I was one of those people who had it in my mind that Fred was going to be riding the bench and CJ would be carried off the field after getting 2,000 yards like OJ. Instead, CJ’s play slipped a bit and Fred Jackson took advantage of it. Jackson had four more carries than CJ Spiller and finished with a career high in TDs (Tied for 6th in the NFL) and receptions (Tied for 15th in the NFL for RBs). Those are impressive numbers when you consider he shared the load with CJ.
According to PFF, Jackson ranked 10th in yards after contact per attempt for RBs. That was actually a better average than what Marshawn Lynch got.
Jackson’s Future- Jackson is 32 right now and we all know that a RBs career tends to go downhill once they reach 30. Of course, Jackson still looks relatively the same as he did a few years back, but I think a lot of his “Aging like a fine wine” is due in large part because he hasn’t had that Adrian Peterson type career with getting like 400 carries a year or whatever. If Jackson was an every down back from the start of the 2007 season, he might be shot at this point.
IMO, it isn’t about age, but wear and tear. For his career, Jackson has 1,394 touches (Receiving, rushing and returns). Amazingly, that’s probably around what an every down back would have gone through by their 4th full season as a starter. So, he may still have a few years left. However, I think having him as an every down back wouldn’t be smart. Split his carries the way they have been doing pretty much.
Now, I happen to think as you get older in your career, you are desperate to play for a winner. If the Bills are bad next year, do you really think Fred would want to stick around at the age of 33? I think he’d love to go play for like the Pats (God, that would suck).
Prediction- I don’t exactly think there’s much of a trade market for Jackson because of his age and running backs not being worth that much in the trade market (Maybe a 4th or 5th rounder) which means losing him for nothing wouldn’t be a cardinal sin in 2015. Also, he’s loved by his teammates, the fans, and the Bills organization on the surface.
I also think his salary is pretty modest (2.85 million) for next year and maybe if the Bills make strides next year and Jackson continues to play well, he could get a semi-raise.
In the end, Jackson will probably be on the roster come September. After next year..who knows…
CJ Spiller– I feel kinda of bad for CJ Spiller. He had a decent season when you consider how badly he was nicked up due to injuries, the QB play being inconsistent, and Andy Levitre’s replacement sucking ass.
Spiller still had six games this season where he rushed for over 5 yards a carry. That’s more than LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peters, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch had.
Of the running backs who gained over 900 yards rushing this year, CJ Spiller had the 5th best YPC average and he was 11th overall in the league in that category. He also had the 15th most rushing yards. And, yes, while CJ seemed to spill a lot of his runs to the outside, he still averaged 5.8 yards a carry up the middle and most of his carries came up the midsection of the line.
Again, the hype surrounding him entering this season (See: Bills.com’s 2,000 yards post) was hirer than any Bills offensive player I can think of in the last 10 years or so. Yes, he didn’t meet the RB Godly-like Status, but he still played well with all things considered. He just has to stay healthy, be more consistent, and not have seven games where his YPC were less than 3.0.
CJ’s Future- It is funny, but to this day I still hate the CJ Spiller pick. Hell, I didn’t even like the Lynch or McGahee picks. As far as I was concerned, they should have kept Travis Henry and made his ass take Sex Ed classes about safe sex. Then, when he went to jail for blow (2008), they would have let Fred Jackson carry the load while Henry was carrying his jump suit. Oh, and I’m not joking.
Drafting RBs in the first round is FUCKEN stupid. DUMB, DUMB, DUMB. It has been proven that you can find decent RBs later in the draft or even off the streets. Of the top 20 RBs this past season, over half of them weren’t picked in the first round.
On top of that, running the football isn’t as important as it used to be since we are in a passing era. If we were living in an era where running the football meant everything, the Bills would be making the playoffs yearly because they’ve always been able to draft RBs well…only to then let them go..and that’s the kicker.
Spiller is a FA after next season and if he gets to like 1,200 yards or so (Which is doable), he’s probably going to get a raise between 7-9 million bucks yearly. If the Bills resembled a team like the New York Yankees who threw money at anyone and everybody, I’d say sign him up.
However, we all know the Bills have a budget and do have a history in letting guys go. Cheap? No. Budget conscious? Fuck yeah. Also, outside of Fred Jackson, the Bills have gotten rid of guys prior to them getting new deals like Henry, Lynch and McGahee.
Yes, I know that some of that stems from BS off the field stuff, but I think a lot had to do with the amount of money they were about to get paid on their 2nd contracts, which were much more than what Jackson got on his last two deals.
The Bills have bigger issues to deal with on the roster when it comes to finding new talent -whether it is via FA/Trade- than having to re-sign a guy like Spiller who I think can easily be replaced. If it were up to me, I’d look into trading him for a 2nd round pick rather than paying him a 7-9 million a year or losing him for nothing. Any other top 10 player at their position I’d be inclined to give them a giant rise, but not a RB. Nope.
Possible replacements- As I said, I’d kill the Bills if they went with a running back within the first 3 rounds if they trade Spiller. So, if they keep Jackson, they’d probably be inclined to get more of a scat back in the later rounds to have that thunder/lightning approach.
I asked Rob Quinn, who writes about the draft and other topics for Forged in Buffalo, to help me out.
Rob watches as much college football as teenager watches porn and he doesn’t shut up about the draft ( Note: I don’t watch college football and won’t pretend to act like I know WTF I’m talking about). He also was the fucker who started the Da’Rick Rogers love fest last offseason (I’ll never forgive him for that!), but he did say to me about 200 times in 2010 that the Bills needed to draft Colin Kaepernick. If only Buddy Nix read the site then!
Anyways, here’s who he thinks the Bills can select later in the draft:
Lache Seastrunk, Baylor- In Baylor’s aggressive offense, Seastrunk has thrived in a limited role, averaging 7.5 yards-per-carry and scoring 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He’s a bit of a smaller back, but he has good speed and vision, while showing the ability to run both inside and outside the tackles.
Marion Grice, Arizona State– Marion Grice is in the Matt Forte-mold of running backs for being effective in both the running and passing game. Grice carried the ball 191 times for 996 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also added another 438 yards on 50 receptions and scored six times as a receiver out of the backfield. Grice isn’t great in any specific aspect of the game, but he does a lot of things well.
Isiah Crowell, Alabama State- Isiah Crowell, on talent alone, is the best running back in the 2014 NFL Draft. However, after an arrest for possession of weapons, failed drug tests and questions about his locker room leadership, Crowell was dismissed from the Bulldogs and forced to transfer to Alabama State. Crowell is fast and shows great vision and intelligence. He knows when to make cuts and hit holes, displaying power when doing so. If he keeps his head on straight, he’s going to be a steal for whichever team takes a flyer on him after the 5th round.
Thanks Rob!
If the draft doesn’t do it for the Bills, there are a few FAs out there. Ben Tate wouldn’t be a bad option as I think the Bills could probably get him for cheaper than they would have to pay CJ. He also has done well when pressed into duty with the Texans. What about a James Starks homecoming? The guy did average 5.5 yards a carry this season when he he gave Eddie Lacy a breather.
Prediction for CJ Spiller- I think it may have been Mike Catalana’s hunch that he could see the Bills trading Spiller this off season that got me thinking about this. I don’t know if the Bills will have the balls to do that. The fans seem to like Spiller a lot, which is something you couldn’t say for McGahee, Lynch and Henry. There might be a pretty bad aftershock if they trade him from some fans.
However, if the Bills adopt the “RBs are overrated and don’t pay them” like I have, then it is kind of a no-brainer. Keep in mind this isn’t the same regime that drafted Spiller.
Now, what they CANNNOT do is lose Spiller for nothing and draft a RB in the 1st round again. Maybe I could live with losing Spiller for nothing, but if they draft another RB in the 1st, I’ll kill puppies and block everyone on Twitter who thinks it is a good idea.
I think they keep him and roll the dice for next season. Maybe they think he’ll get below 1,000 yards again and they can get him for 5-6 million a year. I just don’t see the Bills being that aggressive in trading him, but again, they do have a track record in trading RBs before they hit FA.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
