The news came down this past weekend that Curtis McElhinney would be out for the year after having arthroscopic knee surgery. From all reports, McElhinney has been an exemplary teammate and back-up for the Blue Jackets during his tenure, so it’s hard not to feel bad for him. By the same token, I felt a tinge of excitement when it was announced that Joonas Korpisalo would be coming up as the emergency recall. Even in a lost season, it will be fun to see more of the player that some have already begun calling the future starter for the Jackets. This got me thinking about the Blue Jackets goaltending depth, and just what we might be looking towards in the coming seasons.
Obviously Sergei Bobrovsky is “The Man” for the foreseeable future. While he has yet to consistently regain his Vezina Form from a few seasons ago, and has battled injuries constantly, Bob is still an elite goalie when he’s on his game. People will rightly point to his down numbers this year, largely based on a couple of bad stretches – especially early in the season. But there’s been stretches of that Vezina calibre talent even in this down season.
Bob was not good in Oct. Bob in Nov/Dec was insanely better than Korp, which is crazy #CBJ https://t.co/7T7J13Idkg pic.twitter.com/wW1mRH4f9m
— Matt (@zekebud) March 9, 2016
Bobrovsky is signed for three more seasons after this one, at $7.425 million. With that contract, he is not really a desirable trade piece if he’s anything less than in top form, and if he is in top form, then there’s almost no way the Blue Jackets even consider trading him.
When I touched on the current pro-level goalie depth a couple of months ago, I mentioned that Joonas Korpisalo deserved more of an opportunity due to his impressive run as the emergency starter, which had lasted only a couple of weeks at the time:
“Korpisalo in his rookie season in both the AHL and NHL has been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jackets. His AHL numbers to date compare favorably to Forsberg’s AHL numbers last year (which got him that AHL All-Star nod). The yo-yo-ing between leagues has certainly done no favors in regards to getting him noticed like Forsberg was last season, but Korpisalo is quietly having an excellent year for the Jackets organization.
His NHL all-situation save percentage is currently pedestrian at .909. Beneath those numbers, when you start breaking them down, Korpisalo is having numbers comparable to Bobrovsky’s Vezina year. In even strength situations, Korpisalo has a .934 SV%. The only other save percentage that comes close for Columbus goaltenders during the Bobrovsky era? Bob in his Vezina year. Korpisalo’s even strength high danger save percentage is once again almost interchangeable with Vezina-level Bobrovsky; Korpisalo has .867 HDSV%, and Bobrovsky had a .869 HDSV%.”
Taking a look at the numbers again today, everything is still looking pretty rosy. Korpisalo’s high-danger save percentage has gone down hundredths of a percentage point, and his even strength save percentage has stayed exactly the same. The sample size still isn’t large enough to draw any conclusions on what to expect out of the young Finn, but it is very encouraging. At the very least, Korpisalo has shown that he deserves a longer look at the NHL level, perhaps as a back-up for Bobrovsky as early as next season. Right now, it would be ludicrous to say that Bobrovsky is “expendable” in any way because of the emergence of “Magikorp”. He’s going to need to keep up this level for many more games before anyone should be comfortable with assigning any sort of “future starter” label to him, and even longer before Bobrovsky’s reign as franchise goalie should be tested.
Curtis McElhinney has done all the Jackets could have asked for during the past couple of years, but it looks like his time may have run its course. Using this season’s stats, with 300 minutes played as a qualifier, Mac provides a good low-danger save percentage, ranking among mid-tier NHL starters. It’s downhill from there, though, as his high-danger save percentage and even strength save percentage are both second worst in the entire league. These numbers don’t paint a picture of McElhinney as anything more than a sub-replacement level goalie. That said, McElhinney is signed for the 2016/17 season, and barring the team waiving him or somehow finding a taker on the trade market, he is the most likely candidate for the back-up role next year, even if he’s outplayed by any of the other goalies in the system.
Looking beyond that, Anton Forsberg hasn’t performed well at the NHL level in very limited, sporadic stints, but has found some success for Springfield and Lake Erie. The Blue Jackets know what to expect from him at the AHL level, but he remains a question mark for the big club. From there, they have Oscar Dansk, who bounced between AHL Springfield and ECHL Kalamazoo last year and found little success. This season, Columbus and Dansk mutually agreed to loan the player to Rogle BK of the Swedish Hockey League. Dansk finished 12th in the league in save percentage, posting a 91.1% marker over 36 games for Rogle. If he continues to improve on that, he may be a candidate to come back to North America for another shot at the AHL level, but he is not someone I’d peg into a future NHL role at this stage.
The one goalie that could excite is Elvis Merzlikins. The Latvian-born netminder is performing well in Switzerland’s National League “A”. Out of all starters in the league, he was tied for second with a save percentage of 92.2v%. While the NLA, which is where Auston Matthews played this season, is a notch below the level of a KHL or SHL, it is competitive enough that Merzlikins dominating is a very good sign. In addition to his strong play down the stretch, where he started 18 games in a row at one point, the 21-year old has continued to play well during the NLA playoffs, posting a .952 sv% in six games played. It would be very smart for the Jackets to sign Merzlikins and bring him over. His performance in the NLA has at least warranted a longer look over in North America.
With a strong, young core featuring a current under-30 number one (Bobrovsky), a potential NHL starter-in-training (Korpisalo), a strong AHL starter and potential future back-up (Forsberg), and another exciting prospect (Merzlikins), it’s something to build on and work with. It also frees up the Jackets to focus on building up other areas of weakness, especially during the draft, where there’s no real need to take a goalie with one of their limited number of draft picks.
For the first time ever, the Blue Jackets have formidable goaltending depth.
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