Curt Schilling recently made it public of his desire to extend his illustrious career one more season, foregoing retirement until after the 2008 season at the earliest. His clear passion and tremendous love for the game of baseball, along with a thumbs up from the wife and kids, were the main reasons Schilling has decided to enter the ring a little longer. The negotiations for a contract extension have already been introduced to the public by the non-bashful Schilling remarking to Dennis and Callahan on WEEI that the ball is in the Sox court to come up with a fair deal.
Three main points have been concluded early in this process: 1) Curt wants to play in Boston in 2008 more than any other city, 2) he’s willing to accept an extension that matches his current salary at 13M, 3) he’s only looking for a one year extension for 08 and 4) if a deal is not struck before the end of spring training, Schill will be on the open market for a new home in 2008. From the personal standpoint, the deal makes perfect sense for Curt and the Schilling family. His business is starting to build, his kids are enrolled in Boston schools and it’s a strong likelihood this is a place where Curt has a strong chance of pitching in big games every year. Deep down, Schilling would like nothing more than to stay where he is.
But the true question that will determine if Schilling plays in Boston in 2008 is whether or not the front office feels the need to strike a deal at this point in time. With the young influx of pitching making its way through the Red Sox minor league, does hanging on to a 40-year old declining pitcher at 13M annually make sense for the organization? Curt Schilling, more than anyone, fully understands that baseball is more of a business than anything. If this in any fashion throws a blockade in front of the Red Sox long-term goals, they have shown the past few years a willingness to let loved Boston players flee.
Would the money make sense? Well, Schilling’s numbers certainly show he won’t be converting to 2004 form in the latter stages of his career, and some future PECOTA predictions give hints of a slow decline into mediocrity. With the big fuss I made over Todd Helton’s OPS numbers last week, why would I be on the Schilling-extension camp when his numbers from 2004 (3.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) to 2006 (3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) clearly regress?
I approve of a 2008 extension for the following reasons: First, the inflated market these days can overblow what a pitcher is actually worth in terms of on-field performance. I wrote a few months ago during the peak of the unreal free-agent contracts that we should accept the Drew and Lugo signings while looking at the current structure of the money pool in baseball. Theo and the front office’s main job is to contend with the other baseball teams in contest for the services of a player, and sometimes they are not in control of the bargaining cost, but the grand landscape of baseball is. Curt Schilling for 13M in 2008 looks pretty favorable when you see this:
Gil Meche – 97 ERA+ and 5 year/$55 till 2012
Ted Lilly – 109 ERA+ and 4 year/$40 till 2011
Barry Zito – 116 ERA+ and 7/$126 till 2014
Curt Schilling – 116 ERA+ and 1/$13 till 2008
All of a sudden, a one-year extension for Schilling looks like a bargain.
The age is concerning, yes, but think about what pitchers in the 40-range have done lately. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were each 40 years old last year and put up pretty solid seasons. Randy Johnson, before he lost cartilage in his knees and his back imploded, was a top of the rotation pitcher and older than Schilling. And we have no problem with giving Clemens another year in the Boston spotlight.
The other main reason I approve of an extension for Schilling is the obvious risk with our current rotation. We learned last year that a roster can never have enough pitching depth. Josh Beckett is coming off his worst season as a pro, a home run machine, a total 5.00 ERA disaster, and there’s some cause for concern over whether he can A) get back to #2 starter form in Boston and B) stay injury-free. Daisuke Matsuzaka has never pitched in the major leagues. Tim Wakefield may retire after this season. We still are not sure if Papelbon is a staying force in the rotation or if he’ll be shifted to the bullpen.
While Jon Lester, Clay Buccholz and Daniel Bard show tons of potential for the future, top prospects have flamed out before. Keeping Schilling another year would allow not only those three, but also pitchers like Bowden and Masterson, to move up the minors on their own pace and perfect their repetoire for the majors. Stability and depth in the rotation is not something to pass up on. Plus, anytime you have a man as knowledgeable and intelligent about opposing hitters that will gladly pass on that knowledge to young pitchers, he’s an off-the-field weapon as well.
That’s all fine and dandy, but how will Schilling produce on the field? Will he be worth 13M in 2008, or somewhere in that area? PECOTA predicts Schill will be worth $14,925,000 in 2007 and just $8,600,000 in 2008. Why the significant drop?
2007: 198 IP, 14-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 37.6 VORP, 5.3 WARP, 6.7 K/9, .303 BABIP
2008: 156 IP, 10-7, 4.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 21.6 VORP, 3.4 WARP, 6.5 K/9, .307 BABIP
That’s a pretty steep decline and cause for concern. PECOTA is banking on Schilling probably hitting the DL by the drop in innings pitched and a large increase in ERA at 41 years old.
Still, the Red Sox should ease up and give Curt his extension. Even after I named all of the problems that could arise with the Sox rotation in the future, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Beckett, Lester and Buccholz are all under 27 and should improve in 2008 from 2007 as they hit their prime years. Remember, Schilling doesn’t necessarily have to be a #1 starter, just an upper-middle rotation type pitcher who provides stability, consistency, an average ERA and mentors the young group of pitchers making their way to the big leagues.
For all Curt has done in Boston (sacrificing his career, talking to fans on message boards, charity work), he deserves 13 million for 2008. He’s not asking for a big pay raise. He’s asking for more than one year. He’s not complaining about the negotiations and understands why Boston may not hand over large sums of money to him in an instant. But because Schilling did go public with the talks, the pressure is on the Red Sox to get this finished. They have until the end of spring training to extend Schilling, and it seems like a doable move at this time.
2009? Well, that’s a different story.
UPDATE by Evan: Seems like a good time to change the poll. You can vote over on the right if Schilling should be resigned or not. Here’s the results of the previous poll:
Athleticism on the Sox was discussed. How should an offense be built?
* Give me the walks and the homers. I’ll take my chances.
22% of all votes
* Pitching should be the focus. We don’t need an offense.
13% of all votes
* Everything should try to be balanced.
61% of all votes
* Walks? That’s Moneyball. Give me contact and speed!
4% of all votes
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