Eleven game win streak, extensions for the front office, what’s next? An extension for Sasha Barkov could be one of those things.
The rumblings began on New Year’s Eve, when Harvey Fialkov tweeted the below:
Panthers,working on tying up Barkov on 8 year deal acc to source #FlaPanthers
— Harvey F. (@hfialkov) December 31, 2015
Then last weekend, Elliotte Friedman said much the same on Hockey Night in Canada. The common thread is that there will be no bridge contract. Both sides are apparently going straight to the long-term contract.
I don’t find that entirely surprising, given that the Panthers have already done such a thing in recent memory with a center. Nick Bjugstad skipped the bridge contract himself in his extension last season. It only makes sense that if you give your #2 center a long term contract, you give your #1 center a long term contract too. There is some age risk here. Barkov is just 20 years old, a full two years younger than Bjugstad was when he signed his extension. But, you know, he’s Sasha Barkov.
So, let’s have a little fun and play guess the contract. In my mind, there are three comparables that can be used for Barkov.
Nick Bjugstad
I just mentioned him, and he would be the first contract you would point to because: 1) he’s a center, 2) he signed his extension fairly recently, 3) he’s in the same early 20s age bracket, and 4) he plays on the same team. You can’t get too many more comparison points than that.
Bjugstad signed a six-year, $24.6 million deal at New Year’s last season. His deal breakdown is below:
[table id=295 /]As you can see, Bjugstad’s contract is backloaded, starting with a salary of $2.85 million in year one, increasing every year to a salary of $5.25 million in year six, for an average of $4.1 million per season.
I imagine the Panthers would want something similar in structure. It would be a financial benefit to the team to backload, given that the team still has some headway to make in the South Florida sports market (11 straight wins help that a lot, though). Deferring a bulk of the contract payment to a time when you would expect the Panthers to receive a greater quantity of fan support, and therefore money, makes a lot of sense. It also makes sense, in my mind, to escalate payment along side the player’s performance, from a psychological standpoint.
However, Barkov is not going to sign for Bjugstad money, he has too much going for him. True, Bjugstad got 9 Calder votes, when Barkov got 1 in 2013-14. However, Bjugstad has no other award votes in his career, while Barkov was the recipient 3 Selke votes last season. You can bet that he will be getting many more than three votes this season, given the breakout season he is having. The results of that breakout are another reason Barkov will get more. Bjugstad has been steady at around half a point per game in each of his full seasons. Barkov, on the other hand, was around there for his first two season, but has exploded for 0.84 points per game this season.
Now if only there were a comparable for that… oh wait, there is.
Anze Kopitar
This may seem like a very heavy comparison at first. After all Kopitar is one of the elite centers in the game today. He’s been a finalist for the Selke Trophy the last two seasons, losing to Patrice Bergeron both times, and beating out Jonathan Toews for 1st runner up in 2013-14. He’s also scored no fewer than 61 points in a full NHL season.
That last point is the clearest difference between Barkov and Kopitar. Where Barkov was at 0.44 and 0.51 points per game in his first two seasons, Kopitar has never completed a season below 0.80 points per game (though he is currently at 0.75 in 2015-16 as of publishing time). However, I still believe this comparison works, but it requires somewhat of a leap of faith.
The argument is this: Barkov’s performance this year more properly represents his true talent level because it is the first time he has entered a season completely healthy and with a full offseason of proper training. If you recall, Barkov injured his shoulder during his draft year, and required surgery which he was recovering from prior to his rookie season. Then, Barkov injured his knee at the Olympics in 2014, requiring surgery once again, with a recovery period that no doubt extended into the summer.
This past offseason there was no surgery or injury to hamper his training. Now, he’s performing at a Kopitar level. It’s not just the points per game either.
For comparison’s sake, lets key in on Kopitar’s third season in 2008-09, the last one on his entry level deal (Read: the same crossroads Barkov is at now). In that season, Kopitar was 0.9 G/60, 1.0 A/60 for a 1.9 P/60 at 5v5. He also had a score adjusted CF%rel at +5.5. Barkov this season is at 1.0 G/60 and A/60 for a 1.9 P/60 at 5v5 (rounding is a funny thing), with a score adjust CF%rel at +2.6. Additionally, Barkov’s score adjusted SCF% of +8.0 is better than Kopitar’s that season (+7.1%).
There are some differences. For example, 63.2% of Kopitar’s assists in 2008-09 were primaries, whereas just 28.6% of Barkov’s are primaries. However, I am comfortable enough calling this a fair comparison.
Now, it is worthy to note that Kopitar himself skipped the bridge deal coming out of his entry level deal and went straight to a long-term contract. This is the contract he received:
[table id=296 /]The first thing that stands out is, obviously, the dollar amount. That is a lot of money, much more than Bjugstad got. The jump in AAV is $2.7 million. Similarly though, it is a backloaded deal, though to a lesser extent.
Here is where pegging what Barkov might get by comparison gets tricky. First, the average salary of an NHL player has risen since Kopitar’s deal was signed, as the cap has risen along with revenue ($56.8 million in 2009-10 to $71.4 million this season, or a 25.7% increase). Given all things are equal, you would expect that the price of signing a Kopitar level player would be worth more than it was back in 2009. Just what might that kind of player cost in today’s NHL? Enter the next comparison…
Vladimir Tarasenko
First things first, the comparison is not perfect from a hockey standpoint. Tarasenko is not a center like Kopitar or Barkov. He is also a higher volume scorer at 5v5, at 2.3 P/60 or better in all of his non-rookie seasons. However, he is the most recent young star to skip the bridge contract coming out of his entry level deal, and sign a long-term, big money deal. So from a situational standpoint, this is a good starting point. Tarasenko’s deal is as follows:
[table id=297 /]This contract is actually very interesting in its construction. The AAV is not much more than Kopitar’s 2009 deal ($7.5 million to $6.8 million), but the contract is not backloaded. Instead, the yearly amounts meander a bit, and add up to exactly $30 million in each half of the contract. Its an odd arrangement, and there is no apparent cap benefit I can see. It complies with the 100% Rule per Article 50.7(b), with the decreases in Years 6 and 8 ($4 million) being 50% of the values of Years 1 and 2 of the contract ($8 million). I suspect the exact allocation of salary has a specific meaning to either the Blues and/or Tarasenko. Those details are unseen and unknown to us. As a result, I’m not certain a similar structure would happen in a Barkov deal.
All things being equal, Barkov probably gets something close to what Tarasenko got. Barkov is an exceptional young talent, but is not yet old enough to head to unrestricted free agency, and would not receive the kind of deals Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron currently have.
However, not all things are equal. Barkov’s production in the first two seasons lagged by comparison. That means the Panthers are assuming more risk than the Kings or Blues did on Kopitar and Tarasenko. The track record of high level results is not as long, so there is less evidence of repeatability. That does not mean it is a bad idea to take the risk, or that Barkov is no good. It just means there is a price for accepting a higher level of risk.
The Panthers could also ease the cap hit with an eighth year in the contract. Given what Fialkov and Friedman have said, that sounds like what the Panthers might be doing.
Now that we’ve run through all the details, let’s take a swipe at what a Barkov contract may look like:
[table id=306 /]It represents a 9.2% increase in total money compared to Kopitar. That is less than half of the rise between Kopitar and Tarasenko. An increase in total money from Kopitar seems reasonable given the changed financial dynamics of the league, while less money than Tarasenko makes sense due to increased risk. That also conveniently places the cap hit at $6.5 million, which is a little less than Kopitar’s.
This is admittedly a very simplistic guess. There are finer, relevant details not available to the public, so I will not attempt to guess what impact that might have on the negotiations.
Rather, I believe this is a good general idea of what we could expect a contract to look like. At the end of the day though, all that matters to me is that these two sides come together. We love the Panthers, and we love Sasha.
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