We are in the home stretch of a Presidential election that has kept fact-checkers busier than ever. Never before have fact-checkers been so important. So we here at Red’s Army decided to employ our own team of fact checkers (me and Chuck) to look at some of the statement being made about the Celtics as we head into the season. These aren’t ALL of the things being said about our Boston Celtics, but these are the biggies. And just like in politics, there aren’t many definitive answers.
So here it is, our 2016-17 season preview… fact-checked style.
The Celtics are good, but they won’t really be a serious challenge to the Cavaliers
Depending on how Cleveland manages the minutes of an aging LeBron James, a mere handful of games might separate these teams in the regular season. But make no mistake about it, these teams are light years apart in playoff basketball. Even if everything goes right for the Celtics (Horford fits in seamlessly, young guys emerge, shooting and rebounding improves), the Cavaliers still have a ton of firepower on offense. I’m not convinced the Cavs have worked out the kinks with Kevin Love. I still think there are compatibility issues there.
Jaylen Brown is going to be part of the regular rotation and make a noticeable contribution.
Yes, it’s true that Jaylen will be part of the regular rotation. “Noticeable contribution” is up for some debate. Will you notice some of the things he contributes? Yes, because they will be spectacular. However, let’s not get preseason and regular season confused. The preseason is full of guys trying to impress coaches and make plays while teams are evaluating how guys execute the overall scheme rather than individual team game-plans. Overly aggressive closeouts on Brown will happen less often, which will reduce the mistakes opposing defenders make, which will give him fewer opportunities to exploit those mistakes. The game plan on Brown right now is to be disciplined when he has the ball on the perimeter: Give him space to shoot while giving yourself time to recover to his first step. Force him to the middle where there’s help if need be and prevent him from getting to the rim. He’ll still be a force in transition, but his half court impact will not be great this season.
Terry Rozier is ready to make a big impact
He looks ready. He sounds ready. He seems ready. But all we have to go by is summer league and the preseason. As encouraging as all that has been, he still hasn’t had to face any real competition. So there’s no doubt that he’s ready to play bigger minutes, and the Celtics will most certainly depend on Rozier to play a bunch, but “big impact” might be a stretch. Right now I think the Celtics will settle for a solid year from Rozier off the bench where he hits a couple of threes, makes the right pass at the right time, and creates some space for the other guys on the floor. The expectations are high for Rozier based on inflated results against lesser competition. He’s show some really encouraging signs that show this can be sustainable, but there’s no legitimate way to fully buy into Rozier’s progress until we see it continue over the regular season. An upgrade around Christmastime isn’t out of the question, though.
The Celtics lack of shooting will still haunt them this season
While it’s true the Celtics lack of shooting hasn’t fully been addressed, there are a couple of factors in play that will take them out of the “haunt” category. First is the Al Horford factor, which requires teams to focus on him when he’s on the floor. He’s a threat in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop situations, so he’ll draw help defenders. That gives his teammates an extra beat, and any time an NBA player gets a cleaner look at the basket, his chances of making the shot go up. Secondly, there’s the natural progression of some of our shooters that will make things better. Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk, and Terry Rozier can all take at least incremental steps forward in their long-distance shooting. Whether it’s improved efficiency or just better form, there’s some expectation that these guys can continue to progress in that area. It won’t make them the Warriors, but they won’t be the Bulls, either.
Al Horford is good, but he’s not a #1 guy, so he won’t help THAT much
The factual part of that statement is that Horford isn’t a “#1 guy” in that he’s not the guy a team can dump it into and let him score 25 points a night. He’s not a Durant or LeBron level guy, we know that, so in that sense he’s still not the primary option the Celtics need. However, this isn’t as simple some of the stats-only projections will make it seem. On a purely numbers level, Jared Sullinger is a career 11 point/8 rebound guy while Horford is a 14 & 9 guy, so by the simplest statistical measure, the Celtics aren’t adding much. But when you see how much Horford can raise other people’s games, it’s clear he’ll have an immediate impact on everyone who shares the floor with him. He might still be a 14 & 9 guy at the end of the season, but (as noted above) he can give guys more space to get their shots off and also find more guys with his passing ability to get them easier shots. We’ve also seen him push the ball up the floor after grabbing a rebound so he’ll push the pace as well. The Celtics scored 105.7 points per game last year. Horford could be worth 4 or 5 more points per game. If the Celtics defense can get a couple of points better (allowed 102.5 ppg last season), the Celtics could get close to the 10 point differential only Golden State and San Antonio accomplished last year.
We’ve seen the best of Isaiah Thomas, so don’t expect too much more out of him this season
I don’t think we’ll see much of an increase in IT’s per game averages – 22 ppg and 6 apg. Granted, he put up those numbers as defenses focused on stopping him. We should see improved efficiency (42% FG). File this one under areas that will be impacted by the presence of Al Horford. The Celtics will be a better offensive team this season but not because Thomas will elevate his game to another level.
Marcus Smart make “the leap” this year
538’s statistical projections have Smart leapfrogging into the “future all-star” category this season. The projection is based off his elite defense and the assumption he’ll improve on the worst three-point shooting season in league history. He can’t be any worse, can he? Confession – I’m petrified that Smart is going to be an erratic offensive player for most of his career. I’m willing to bet Antoine Walker watches him play and thinks, “Why don’t you just take it to the rim?”
Kelly Olynyk make “The Leap” this year
Olynyk will come off the bench and be looked at as the second unit’s primary scorer. That means he’ll still get some time with Horford and Thomas while still being forced to take a bigger role in the offense. Sure, his shoulder injury is something to watch out for. It could be hard for a shooter to get that shot back after a surgery like this, but if he can come back healthy, the can take advantage of the floor spacing and his new role to be a more productive Kelly Olynyk than we’ve seen in the past. It’s hard to put full faith in “the leap,” though, since Kelly has always been hesitant on the floor, and it’s hard to think that habit will radically change. He’ll be better, and maybe a lot better, but until he demonstrates that his passive ways are over, there’s just no way to wholeheartedly accept this going to be a monster year without being overly hopeful.
Danny Ainge will actively pursue a blockbuster trade during the season
We know Danny Ainge will never reject a phone call from another GM. Someone can call him up and say “Hey we just signed RJ Hunter, we’ll give him to you for Isaiah Thomas, straight up” and Ainge will at least let the guy finish his sentence. Ainge will scan the landscape and watch to see if any stars might be ready to shake loose from their teams and make a play for them. Ainge will make plenty of calls and the Celtics will be involved in plenty of rumors. The thing that doesn’t make this completely true is the “blockbuster” part of the statement. He might make a move for another really good complimentary player with the hopes of wooing his coveted superstar in free agency.
The Celtics will have the top-ranked defense this year
There are teams that will have stifling defenses out there that might have some better rim protection, but no one has the perimeter defense the Celtics can trot out there. Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder are three of the league’s most tenacious and versatile defenders. There exists a possibility that another team will slip into a higher spot in the rankings, but the Celtics will be near the top, if they don’t snatch that top spot.
The Celtics will still have only one all star
The Celtics will almost certainly be in the top half of the standings by the time the voting is done. While they may not get anyone voted onto the team, the Coaches won’t let a team that’s second or third in the standings just have one All Star. The odds-on favorites to make the team are Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford, but don’t rule out a wild card, especially if there’s an injury in February.
Someone from this team is winning a postseason award
Brad Stevens has an outside shot, but only if the Celtics take advantage of a coasting Cavs team to steal a top seed. That’s not impossible, but it’s not something we should expect. Avery Bradley will get votes for Defensive Player of the Year, but he’s going to have to have the best year of his life to even challenge guys like Kawhi Leonard or DeAndre Jordan. Maybe Marcus Smart or Kelly Olynyk can have breakout years to win Most Improved, but that’s not something we can count on. So while an outside chance exists for all of these scenarios, it’s not anything we can confidently count on. We’ll see some names on the All-Defense team and maybe All-Rookie, but that’s about it.
That’s it. Those are the facts as we see them. Now it’s time for the regular season!
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