Editor’s Note: This is a guest post by Ron Leyba, the lead editor of FantasyFootballOverdose.Com – great source of fantasy football news and rumors. You can follow @NFLRankings via Twitter or via Facebook for more updates.
There is something different about the Seattle Seahawks this year. They do not look like the same team that won Super Bowl XLVIII with authority back in February. They are still a good team, to be sure, but they are not the unstoppable force/immovable object that they were at last season’s end. What has changed?
The Seahawks lost some bodies on the defensive line and in the receiving corps to free agency, but nobody irreplaceable. The most pivotal pieces remain: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Earl Thomas, and Richard Sherman. Even the coaching staff from last year is largely intact.
The answer here is not that the Seahawks have lost any invaluable players; it is a combination of two major factors—the first, external; and the second, internal.
First of all, San Diego, Dallas, and St. Louis have demonstrated to the rest of the league how to defeat Seattle, and the method is catching on (as evidenced by Oakland’s near-upset against Seattle this past Sunday).
So what is the method to knocking off the champs? The first step is to shut down Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has only one 100-yard rushing game this season (week one against the Packers), but has eclipsed 100 all-purpose yards in each of Seattle’s victories save one. In Seattle’s three losses, Lynch has not accrued more than 71 total yards.
If Lynch reaches 100 all-purpose yards, it’s all over. The exception to this rule was Carolina two weeks ago. The Panthers held Lynch to 64 total yards, but still came up short. They did everything right defensively. The problem was that Carolina’s offense scored only six points, and, seriously, you cannot expect to beat any team with just a pair of field goals on the scoreboard. That result is anomalous, as most offenses can expect to score more than six points against even Seattle’s formidable defensive unit. Even Oakland’s sorry offense accomplished this much.
The second major difference between the 2013 champs and the humdrum 2014 Seahawks is on defense.
Despite losing Brandon Browner, Red Bryant, and Chris Clemons to free agency, the Seahawks have returned in 2014 with one of the NFL’s best defenses. They rank fourth against the run, sixth against the pass, and fourth overall. Do not let the numbers fool you though; these official rankings are based exclusively on yards allowed per game. But yardage aside, Seattle’s defense allows a good-but-not-great 22 points per game.
Furthermore, Seattle’s defense has failed to force turnovers the way it did a season ago. Seattle’s defense ranks among the league’s worst in takeaways with only 10 on the entire season.
No one is questioning whether or not Seattle is still a good team; that is not a question at all; they certainly are; if the playoffs started today, Seattle would be in as an NFC wild card. But this team is not equipped to repeat as Super Bowl champions. In fact, they are not even equipped to beat Arizona and repeat as NFC West champions. The competition has simply become too strong, and the defense—though still excellent in terms of yardage allowed—is not producing the all-important turnover as it did a season ago. Teams know how to beat Seattle now, and therefore, a repeat is unlikely.
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