Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
Following a 5.5-fWAR performance with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015, Gerrit Cole failed to approach those numbers in the two years that followed. He did that and then some in 2018 for the Astros, posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 34.5% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate. This production led to a 6.3 fWAR and a top-five finish in AL Cy Young voting.
Probably one of the most drastic changes in this career year was a drop in ground-ball rate. Cole had never seen that number dip below 45.6% in a single season before 2018, when it settled in at 36.0%.
Instead of accepting what the Astros wanted to pay him this year, Cole went to arbitration and beat Houston, winning the right to earn $13.5 million in 2019 (he earned $6.75 million last year). The right-hander has a mostly solid track record and pedigree since debuting in 2013. His recent uptick in production likely would’ve played well if he was a free agent this past winter (look at how that worked out for Patrick Corbin).
Cole doesn’t necessarily need to repeat what he just did, but he needs to show it’s somewhat sustainable to get close to the payday agent Scott Boras will likely be searching for.
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