Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are supposed to have a decent-looking rotation as they prepare for battle in a very deep NL Central, and Michael Wacha is hoping to be a big part of the fight. With free agency on the horizon, he’ll need to stay healthy and consistently productive, two things that have been tough for him.
Between 2015 and 2017, the 27-year-old tossed at least 138 innings in each campaign. Two of those years produced solid results (3.38 ERA and 2.3 fWAR in ’15, 4.13 ERA and 3.2 fWAR in ’17), while the other year wasn’t so hot (5.09 ERA, 1.9 fWAR). Wacha’s 2018 was solid from the perspective of run prevention (3.20 ERA), but he toed the slab for just 84.1 innings due to a left oblique strain.
Those innings weren’t overly productive when looking at his peripheral stats, either. Wacha’s strikeout rate (20.0%) and walk rate (10.1%) both went in the wrong direction, while opposing hitters posted a 29.5% line-drive rate and 42.7% hard-hit rate. Those numbers probably would’ve been closer to career norms had he been healthy for a longer period of time, but he’ll need to focus on getting ahead of hitters early in counts. After posting a career-high 65.8% first-pitch strike rate in 2017, that number dropped to a career-low 53.0% in ’18.
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