Alex Wood, Cincinnati Reds
Alex Wood’s 2017 breakout with the Los Angeles Dodgers was exciting to watch. While his ’18 production was solid despite taking a step back (ERA went from 2.72 to 3.68 and fWAR went from 3.5 to 2.6), he has a couple of situations to combat in his platform year before free agency.
One is declining fastball velocity. This is something that’s actually been going on since the second half of ’17. Check out how his fastball velocity and strikeout rate have changed in the below time periods.
Overall strikeout rate isn’t directly correlated to fastball usage and velocity, but it’s hard to not see the patterns forming.
Wood will also be pitching in Great American Ball Park — the easiest place to hit a homer at last year, according to ESPN Park Factors. The southpaw has been a ground-ball-heavy hurler (and more so in recent years). But after two years of having that number up at 53.0% or above, it went down to 48.9% in 2018, along with allowing hard contact at a 37.9% clip (27.7% in ’17).
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