Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals
It’s been a little bit of an up-and-down year for Keller. The “down” part has been prevalent when he hasn’t outperformed his peripherals, too. He’s posted a monthly ERA below 4.75 just twice so far in 2019 (4.07 in March/April and 2.12 in July). While his 4.85 ERA through 13 August innings doesn’t look pretty, his overall body of work in the second half has been very strong.
That’s evident by a shift in ERA, as Keller posted a 4.47 mark through 110.2 first-half innings, a number that has dropped to 3.05 through 41.1 frames since the All-Star break. While he’s still outperforming his peripherals, Keller’s second-half performance is more in line with them. Prior to the All-Star break, the right-hander had a 5.21 xFIP, which has dropped down to 3.91 after the midsummer classic.
A lot of this has to do with a significant rise in strikeout rate (15.9% to 20.8%) and a more significant drop in walk rate (11.3% to 4.2%). While his homers allowed per nine innings rate has gone up (0.73 to 1.31), it’s easier to limit runs scored by the opposition when there are fewer runners on base.
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