Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics
When his number was called last year, Treinen was basically automatic. In 80.1 innings, the right-hander compiled 38 saves and led qualified relievers with 3.6 fWAR and a 0.78 ERA.
It’d be easy to expect regression in 2019, but it’s doubtful anyone thought it’d look like this. Through 57.1 frames, he owns a -0.2 fWAR and 4.71 ERA. A couple of spots in his profile stand out when comparing it to last year’s breakout campaign.
The first is his homers allowed per nine innings, which jumped from 0.22 to 1.41. That was aided by an increase of about 10 percentage points in fly-ball rate, along with watching his hard-hit rate allowed rise more than eight percentage points. The other change was a shift in strikeout and walk numbers. After posting a 31.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in ’18, those percentages have worsened to 22.2% and 13.2%, respectively.
Treinen’s 60.7% first-pitch strike rate is actually on pace to be a single-season career-high mark, meaning he just can’t finish off the job right now. His pitch mix has continued to evolve, which has brought a career-low 12.7% usage rate for his slider and a career-high 20.1% usage rate for his cutter. Opposing hitters have posted a 105 wRC+ and 14.3% strikeout rate against Treinen’s cutter this year, while those numbers are just 69 and 45.5%, respectively, against his slider.
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