June’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
Max Scherzer entered June with a 2-5 record — mostly because the bullpen hadn’t been able to help him out — and he now enters July with a much more Scherzer-like 8-5 record. One interesting trend that’s been going on for a few years is a continued drop in homers allowed. After allowing 1.22 dingers per nine innings in 2016, that number has gone down each following season, with his current 0.66 mark on track to be a career best. The righty has always been a fly-ball pitcher, but his current 37.5% fly-ball rate allowed is about 10 percentage points lower than last year.
Chris Sale doesn’t have nearly as many wins to show for his strong month, but he’ll surely take it anyways. One thing that stood out about his 2018 performance was the quality of contact — opposing hitters posted a higher soft-hit rate (27.4%) than hard-hit rate (26.5%). That hasn’t been the case this year, but things at least were more normal in June. Sale allowed hard contact at a 24.7% clip last month, which is a huge improvement from the two months prior (34.8% in March/April, 37.0% in May).
Shane Bieber‘s breakout performance has continued for the Cleveland Indians, with his season-long ERA of 3.54 currently checking in just over a full run lower than last year in virtually the same sample size. The right-hander has improved his BABIP allowed from .356 in 2018 to his current mark of .286. His hard-hit rate allowed hasn’t changed much (43.9% to 41.0%), but his infield-fly rate has improved substantially (5.6% to 15.6%). This can be attributed to increased usage of his slider (22.8% to 29.0%) and staying out of the strike zone more often (48.0% to 37.8%).
Hyun-Jin Ryu may be starting the All-Star Game, but Walker Buehler gets on this list, which is probably way more important to him. The young hurler has maintained his strikeout rate at 27.2% thus far in 2019, but has cut his walk rate from 6.8% to 3.7%. Of the few pitches where his control has improved, Buehler’s curveball stands out — he hasn’t walked anyone with that pitch yet after doing so at a 4.1% clip last year.
Jacob deGrom has gotten back to being his normal self after a rough March/April, yet he still has a losing record in June to show for it. So, yea, things are definitely back to normal. What’s interesting here is how much more effective deGrom’s changeup has been in one category, but not another. After posting a 2.2% walk rate and 29.1% strikeout rate with it last year, both of those numbers have improved to 1.5% and 38.5%, respectively. However, opposing hitters have posted a 70 wRC+ against the offering so far this year, compared to a 10 wRC+ last season.
About Matt Musico
Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book and created an online class about how to get started as a sports blogger. Check those out and more helpful tips on sports blogging at his website.
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