It’s the most exciting time of the year, as preseason games are in full swing, the sleepers are starting to emerge, and the draft boards are beginning to form.
Fantasy football, much like the stock market, is a game based on finding value. Take Odell Beckham, Jr. or C.J. Anderson late last year? You ended up getting first-round production out of a late-round or undrafted player. Conversely, starting your draft with Adrian Peterson, Montee Ball, or both provided almost no value for a first or second round pick.
But the variations don’t have to be that strong. DeMarco Murray and Antonio Brown were taken on average in round three or four last year, but paid back that investment by turning in the top performances at their respective positions. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning were both first or second round picks that were certainly above average for their position, but failed to deliver that top-end performance fantasy players look for from a first round pick.
Those players who are consistently successful year after year in fantasy are those that excel at finding that value through the draft, through free agency, and through trades.
When approaching the draft looking for value, I like creating “tier” rankings; groups of players that I think will perform at or about relatively the same level. I then use these tier rankings to inform my picks, always with an eye of finding value. Throughout the draft I’m constantly updating and crossing names off my lists, and attempting to figure out what positions or players are being under-valued in my draft and therefore are great opportunities to pick up players in rounds they might not be available in normally.
For example, is there a tier-two player still on the board two rounds after the last one was taken? That’s value. Are there four running backs in my next tier still available so I can take the last available wide receiver of a higher tier and wait on running back? Value. Conversely, taking a third-tier receiver when there are still tier-two running backs or first tier quarterbacks and tight ends is a one-way ticket to the basement of your league.
Now value-based drafting does come with limits; drafting four straight wide receivers at the top of the draft, no matter how good they are, is probably not going to be a winning formula. Awareness of your roster and maintaining as much flexibility as possible is key in approaching a draft.
With the notion of finding “value” in mind, here are my tier rankings for quarterbacks along with some notes for each:
Tier 1:
Andrew Luck – Ind
Aaron Rodgers – GB
It’s tough to go wrong with either of these two as your number one QB. With that said, I like Luck slightly more after the injury to Jordy Nelson. If either of them are available at the end of the 2nd round or the early 3rd, you could do far worse.
Tier 2:
Peyton Manning – Den
Drew Brees – NO
Russell Wilson – Sea
Ben Roethlisberger – Pit
All a step below Luck and Rodgers due to various concerns, but you’re happy if you end up with any of them as your #1 QB. With that said, I’m not taking any of these guys before the 6th round, as the difference in value between tiers two and three are not big enough to justify passing up a top-30 running back or receiver. Based on average drafts, this group tends to end up going in rounds three-to-five, so I’m probably not ending up with any of this group.
Tier 3:
Matt Ryan – Atl
Tony Romo – Dal
Tom Brady – NE
Cam Newton – Car
Ryan Tannehill – Mia
Here’s the money spot for me for quarterbacks. These are guys you can get anywhere from the 6th-10th round, and each will still provide numbers that will keep you competitive with all the players taken earlier. Would you rather have Matt Ryan and his 268 points from last season (ESPN standard scoring) in the 8th round or Russell Wilson and his 312 points in the 3rd? Keep in mind that both DeMarco Murray and Antonio Brown had average draft positions in the 3rd round last season, and the opportunity cost versus value of the higher-tier quarterbacks can be huge.
Also, if you plan on grabbing Brady in the 8th or 9th round, be sure to grab a serviceable replacement for whatever suspension he ends up serving.
Tier 4:
Eli Manning – NYG
Philip Rivers – SD
Matthew Stafford – Det
Carson Palmer – Ari
Every one of these guys could end up providing value as high as the players listed up in the tier two category, but all have significant risks that make their floor far lower than everyone listed above. Manning’s offensive line is a trainwreck, Rivers doesn’t have the weapons to put up 35 touchdowns, Stafford has injury concerns for himself and his best weapons, and Palmer is coming off a torn ACL. All are also going to provide you basically no rushing, which limits their upside.
I’m not thrilled if one of these guys ends up being my #1 starter, particularly in a 10-12 team league. But if rounds 5-10 are just providing too much value, you can live with one of these guys for a few weeks while you try and pull off a trade for one of the higher-tier players.
Tier 5:
Sam Bradford – Phi
Colin Kaepernick – SF
Jay Culter – Chi
Teddy Bridgewater – Min
Speaking of risk, like Austin Powers, this tier also likes to live dangerously. Bradford’s knee is an explosion waiting to happen, Kaepernick may be secretly terrible and/or be playing with the San Francisco Circus for his offensive line, Cutler never found a double-covered wide receiver he didn’t like, and Bridgewater is entering his second season as a starter and has average-at-best weapons outside of Adrian Peterson.
With that said, I’d bet my bottom dollar one of these guys blows up and ends the year as a top-12 or even top-10 quarterback. If Bradford somehow stays healthy, he’s my pick and would provide amazing value towards the end of your draft.
Tier 6:
Joe Flacco – Bal
Andy Dalton – Cin
Alex Smith – KC
Jameis Winston – TB
Marcus Mariota – Ten
Nick Foles – StL
Robert Griffin III – Was
Now things are starting to get ugly. Unless your league starts two quarterbacks, most of these players should not even come off your draft board in a non-keeper league (obviously Winston and Mariota have much higher values in dynasty leagues). If I draft Brady and end up with one of these guys as my fill in, I’m not feeling particularly good about my first four weeks, but I can probably survive. Other than that, fill that roster spot with a flier on Ty Montgomery or David Cobb instead of rostering a average-at-best league quarterback that will probably only play during your regular starter’s bye week.
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