Welcome to part two of our fantasy football preview series! If you missed part one, which outlined my methodology and ranked the quarterbacks, you can find that article here.
Running backs have been going through a bit of a revolution in fantasy football over the past few seasons. Ten years ago it was standard practice to take two with the first two picks, regardless of what else was available. But with the rise of split backfields and running-back-by-committee, and the near-extermination of the “workhorse” running back, top-tier talents at the position are much more difficult to come by.
There are now multiple strategies to drafting running backs, and all can be equally viable. An owner could take just one, the standard two, or even zero running backs with their first three picks and still field an effective team.
With the uncertainty at the running back position beyond the top two tiers, I would probably shy away from taking multiple running backs with early picks unless one of those top players falls to you in the second or third round. The quality of wide receiver you are giving up to draft that second running back is simply too high to reach on any but the safest picks.
Without further ado, here are the tier rankings for running backs. As always, each tier is in no specific order:
Tier 1:
Eddie Lacy – GB
Adrian Peterson – Min
Jamaal Charles – KC
Marshawn Lynch – Sea
Le’Veon Bell – Pit
C.J. Anderson – Den
Here are your big-ticket items, and the only backs you want to consider if you end up with a top-four pick in your draft. All are close enough that any could make a reasonable case to be the #1 pick, and all should make excellent cornerstones of your team. Lynch takes a slight hit in a point-per-reception league, but still remains in the top tier.
Tier 2:
Matt Forte – Chi
Jeremy Hill – Cin
DeMarco Murray – Phi
DeMarco Murray in the Philadelphia offense is a terrifying thought and carries loads of potential…but he’s also coming off a 390-carry season. This usually spells trouble for a running back the following season and Murray hasn’t exactly been a picture of health thus far in his career. On potential Murray is a top-tier player, but his significant risk drops him here.
Jeremy Hill might be the breakout fantasy player of the season if last year’s workload continues. Giovani Bernard’s presence limits Hill’s upside somewhat, but I’d have no issues taking him as my #1 back in the last half of the first round or the top of the second round.
Forte is the girl you bring home to Mom; he’s not going to be the most exciting player to draft and none of your buddies are going to high-five you for taking him home with you, but he’s as reliable as they come. At the end of the day, you’ll be smiling as your fellow owners who took the “sexy” picks two rounds too high are pulling their hair out begging for just one touchdown while you kick back and rake in the points.
Tier 3:
LeSean McCoy – Buf
Alfred Morris – Was
Mark Ingram – NO
Jonathan Stewart – Car
Frank Gore – Ind
Lamar Miller – Mia
Joseph Randle – Dal
This is where things start to get interesting. First, LeSean McCoy falls precipitously after a move to Buffalo and a pre-season hamstring injury that certainly could linger throughout the season. Morris, Stewart, and Gore are all steady veterans with a relatively high floor but limited ceilings. Meanwhile, Ingram, Miller, and Randle all carry more risk, but also have the potential to end the year as a top-10 back.
Randle, in particular, has a fantastic opportunity as the lead back behind the best offensive line in football to put up a monster season. Unfortunately he’s had more than a few off-the-field incidents that make you (and the Cowboys) worry whether he’s mature enough to be a workhorse, three-down back, but the talent and the opportunity are there, and that is all a fantasy owner can ask for.
If I decide to go elsewhere with my early picks, this is the tier I target in the 4th or 5th round for my #1 back.
Tier 4:
Joique Bell – Det
Latavius Murray – Oak
Carlos Hyde – SF
Justin Forsett – Bal
Melvin Gordon – SD
I would feel perfectly fine about any of the players in this tier ending up as my #2 RB. If these are my options as a #1 back, I’m sweating more than an elected official with an Ashley Madison profile.
Bell is someone you may be able to steal two rounds later than he should go because of all the Ameer Abdullah hype, but Bell is still going to be the lead back there even if Abdullah ends up with 10-15 carries a game.
Hyde and Murray would both be higher if I had any confidence whatsoever in the team surrounding them, but I think on talent alone those two will put up at least decent numbers this season. Gordon is a rookie in a great situation, but rookie running backs have a nasty history of disappointing; with that said, Gordon is still one of my top picks in a dynasty league.
The Curious Case of Arian Foster:
Arian Foster – Hou
Quick, what do listening to a Taylor Swift album with a teenage girl and Arian Foster have in common? They’re both going to cause a lot of heartache this year. Arian Foster can absolutely win you your league this season, especially with the investment required to get him (generally around an 8th-10th round pick). But he could also end up simply eating up a bench spot week after week as he is constantly “getting closer,” “trusting the process”, and “listening to my body.”
With that said, I will probably end up owning Foster in a lot of leagues this season. If he only ends up missing four games, you just got 1st or 2nd round value from a 9th or 10th round pick. Yes, that would be wildly optimistic, but what is the opportunity cost? According to ESPN, the other backs currently going around Foster’s average draft position are Doug Martin, Alfred Blue (Foster’s backup), and Shane Vereen.
Tier 5:
Andre Ellington – Ari
T.J. Yeldon – Jax
Ryan Mathews – Phi
Rashad Jennings – NYG
Ameer Abdullah – Det
CJ Spiller – NO
Giovani Bernard – Cin
Here’s the official “oodles and noodles of potential” tier; every single back here could wildly outperform this spot and end up with top-20 or even top-15 numbers. But there’s a reason they are all relegated to the basement that is tier 5 instead of hanging with the cool kids up in tiers 2 and 3.
Ellington, Spiller, Abdullah, and Bernard are all situational backs with massive big play potential, but limited touches. None are projected to get more than 15 touches a game, and even that would be on the high side.
Mathews is a walking test-case study for just how many times a single man can separate his shoulder, and is currently behind DeMarco Murray on the Philadelphia depth chart.
Yeldon plays in Jacksonville with Blake Bortles as his quarterback, so he will probably see more 11-man boxes than any other player in the league.
Jennings has had injury issues and plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. With that said, if they pull a miracle and are even respectable, Jennings could be an interesting flier if he stays healthy.
Tier 6:
Tre Mason – StL
Todd Gurley – StL
Chris Ivory – NYJ
LeGarrette Blount – NE
Doug Martin – TB
Isaiah Crowell – Cle
Alfred Blue – Hou
The players in this tier are probably best-served as your third back, or flex, if need be. Probably the most intriguing part of the group is the pair of St. Louis backs, Mason and Gurley.
While Gurley is the shiny new 1st round pick, he’s still coming off of major knee surgery and will be eased into the offense slowly as he fully recovers. In the meantime, Mason, last years’ rookie darling, will assume the lead-back responsibilities in an offense that loves to pound the ball. In a 12-or-14 team league, taking Gurley and teaming him with Mason as your 2nd back could prove to be an inspired choice.
On that same notion, taking Blue and paring him with Foster could be another effective strategy. Of course, if Ivory is available at the same time I’d much rather take the back with the clear #1 role for the entire season over both of those above options.
Tier 7:
Knile Davis – KC
Montee Ball – Den
Bishop Sankey – Ten
David Cobb – Ten
Tevin Coleman – Atl
Duke Johnson – Cle
Jerick McKinnon – Min
Darren Sproles – Phi
Shane Vereen – NYG
Tier 7 is essentially lottery ticket time. Davis, Ball, and McKinnon are all essential handcuffs to highly rated backs that have relatively little value unless their higher-rated teammate goes down. With that said, if one of those backs do get a lead role, they would quickly become a top-10 running back.
Sankey, Cobb, and Johnson are all in the midst of running back battles and could prove valuable enough to jump a few tiers if they were to win the job straight out. Johnson has missed time in camp with an injury but might have the most talent of any back in Cleveland so he is worth a look, particularly for the second half of the season. Vereen and Sproles are both limited in their upside, but have clear and defined roles as pass catchers out of the backfield. In PPR, both are at least one tier higher.
Whatever approach you take to drafting running backs, planning and flexibility will help lead to a successful draft. As refreshing as it is to walk into a draft with a clear-cut plan, knowing when and how to deviate can be the key to turning a good draft into a great one. Sure, maybe you went in to your draft planning to avoid running backs until the fourth round, but if DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, or Jeremy Hill falls to you in the third, be willing to recognize when the value represented by a player is high enough to be worth shifting your plan around for. But above all, have fun and good luck!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
