Welcome back to the final installment of our fantasy football preview series for 2015, where we will be focusing on tight ends, as well as discussing a few auction draft tips and tricks to help you prepare for your draft.
Tight ends are a position that has changed remarkably little over the past few years. Given the increasing dominance of the passing game in the NFL and seeing how dominant a hyper-athletic pass-catching tight end like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham can be, that is actually more than a bit surprising. Unfortunately for fantasy owners (and honestly, fortunately for the human race), there’s only one Rob Gronkowski and he is not as easy to replicate as NFL teams wish he was.
So once again, there is a sharp divide among the top tight ends and the rest of the crop. Where you end up taking one will depend a great deal on how you value the position and how your draft board ends up shaking out.
I won’t go so far as to say to not take a TE until the last rounds if you don’t get Gronk or Graham, as both Kelce and Olsen have upside and opportunity that could make them valuable picks at a certain point. But don’t be afraid to skip tight end a few rounds longer than other owners if there are high-value running backs or receivers still on the board; the difference between Dwayne Allen and Owen Daniels is not going to be especially large, and it probably isn’t worth missing out on one of your sleepers to get Allen when Daniels or any number of others are available a round or two later.
With that said, let’s take a closer look at the position breakdown:
Tier 1:
Rob Gronkowski – NE
Jimmy Graham – Sea
Yep, these are still the guys to have. Gronk is…well, Gronk. Assuming health (always dangerous), he’s a near-lock for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. While 2nd round might be high for me, that’s probably where he’s going to go.
And yes, Jimmy Graham is still a top-tier tight end. Graham had almost 900 yards and 10 touchdowns and that was his worst production since his rookie season. He’s one season removed from 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns, and is now going to be Russell Wilson’s unquestioned #1 target on an offense that will desperately need him to spread the field to open holes for Marshawn Lynch. If Graham’s still there in the 4th round, take him and don’t think twice.
Tier 2:
Travis Kelce – KC
Greg Olsen – Car
Kelce and Olsen are both intriguing this season, given their respective situations. Olsen is now Cam Newton’s only reliable option after Kelvin Benjamin’s injury, and Newton can be expected to rely on Olsen, particularly early in the season as he gains comfort with the rest of the new receivers.
Kelce might be an even more interesting option. He ended 2014 as the 6th-highest scoring tight end, despite not even being the #1 TE on his own team (Anthony Fasano took more snaps). Kelce missed almost his entire rookie season due to injury, and is just now learning the intricacies of playing the position at the NFL level. If Alex Smith is looking for him throughout the year, Kelce could have the kind of season that vaults him just below Graham and Gronkowski in the fantasy pecking order.
Tier 3:
Martellus Bennett – Chi
Jordan Cameron – Mia
Jason Witten – Dal
This is your solid, if unspectacular, tier. Owners know what they are going to get from these three, and it will probably be good enough not to make a move for a better one, but not good enough to make them wish they had someone better. The only possible exception here is Cameron, if he can stay healthy. He’s got a good opportunity in Miami and could put up solid numbers if he and Tannehill are able to develop a chemistry.
Regardless, I’m not taking any of these guys before the 10th round.
Tier 4:
Julius Thomas – Jac
Delanie Walker – Ten
Jordan Reed – Was
Dwayne Allen – Ind
Zach Ertz – Phi
Antonio Gates – SD
A step above the remainder of the position, most of these players will still not be worth much more than a very-late round pick. Each does have just enough interest and potential to rise above the remaining tight ends, however, so each are worth taking if one slides to the 11th or 12th round of your draft.
Tier 5:
Eric Ebron – Det
Larry Donnell – NYG
Owen Daniels – Den
Tyler Eifert – Cin
Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TB
Kyle Rudolph – Min
Vernon Davis – SF
Coby Fleener – Ind
Josh Hill – NO
The walking definitions of JAG (“Just Another Guy”), these are the players who, most weeks, will get you between 2-6 fantasy points and absolutely terrify you the week you happen to be playing an owner of Gronkowski or Graham.
If I’m stuck looking in this tier (and I often am), I’m looking for opportunity and/or unfulfilled potential. Owen Daniels is catching passes from Peyton Manning, who always makes his tight ends look 33% better than they actually are. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a monster at 6’5” and 260, and has the talent to really break out if he can stay healthy and form a connection with #1 overall pick Jameis Winston. Finally, just last year, Vernon Davis was a consensus top-3 tight end after catching 13 touchdowns in 2013. While a return to that level of production is unlikely, I also think his stats from last year (245 yards, 2 touchdowns) were an aberration, and he could possibly return to the form he showed in 2011 and 2012, where he averaged around 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.
And with that, our 2015 positional preview is complete! Now these ranks focused heavily on a snake-draft format, which is still the most popular among fantasy players. But if your league is so inclined, I highly recommend moving to an auction draft. Yes, it takes longer, but why is that a bad thing? After all, it’s Draft Day! Auction drafts also require much more skill and planning, and provide more opportunities to take advantage of fellow owners if a player is too highly valued or not valued high enough.
So with that in mind, here are a few tips and strategies for your auction draft:
- Don’t be afraid to spend on players you want, but always be aware of who is still left at the position. You want Adrian Peterson? Go get him, and don’t be afraid to spend the $5 extra dollars it might take to outbid a fellow owner. But also remain aware of what else is still on the board – spending $70 (out of a standard $200 budget) on Jamaal Charles is somewhat foolish if Lacy, Peterson, Anderson, and Bell are still available.
- Always know how much money the other owners have remaining. Your strategy should change depending on where you sit on the available money chart. Other owners been spending like drunken sailors? Start nominating and buying any high-level players left on the board and any sleepers you’ve been waiting on while you have the advantage. Did you spend big early on to get some top talent? Patience is now the name of the game; try and jump undervalued players while picking your spots with your remaining targets. Also, wait to nominate players you are targeting – richer owners can, and probably will, outbid you.
- Don’t be afraid to bid on players you don’t necessarily want. Always be aware (are we sensing a theme yet?) of how much each player is going for, even if you aren’t necessarily interested in them. Don’t be afraid to put in a bid or two (especially if you’re sitting on a large budget) on players you don’t necessarily love if you think the player is going for too low and you think you can extract a few more dollars from the original owner. You never know, those few dollars might be the difference between who gets that sleeper you’ve been targeting at the end of the draft.
- Value is the name of the game. Much like my approach to the snake draft, I’m constantly looking for value in an auction. Getting Antonio Brown for $50 when other top receivers end up going for almost $60 means I have extra money at other positions; conversely, spending $65 for Bell when I could get Peterson for $55 puts me at a disadvantage relative to the other owners. Value is also not limited to just the high-end players; getting Jonathan Stewart or Jordan Matthews for $15 means I have more ammo when other, bigger names come up later. And on that note…
- Don’t be afraid to nominate lesser players early. There’s no rhyme or reason to who goes up for auction when; each owner simply selects the player and the auction begins. So there is value to be had in putting names like Brandin Cooks or Alfred Morris out before the top-tier running backs and receivers are gone – either they will go for more than they should, and you have a financial advantage, or you get them for below asking price because other owners want to save for the bigger names and you now have a roster advantage.
If you’re still not 100% sold on an auction draft, hop on Yahoo or ESPN, jump into one of their free leagues and give it a shot. It’s a fantastic way to spice up a league that could use a shot in the arm, or adding another layer of depth to leagues with many committed and intelligent owners. As the great Matthew Berry says, going from snake to auction drafts is like going from checkers to chess. So give it a shot!
And with that, our fantasy preview comes to a conclusion. Thank you for reading and I hope these guides have been helpful. Now go out and dominate your draft!
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