Greetings, and welcome to the third article in our 2015 fantasy football preview series! If you missed part one that covered quarterbacks and also detailed the methodology behind my ranks, check it out here. Part two covered running back tiers and talked a little early-round draft strategy, and can be found here. So with that out of the way, let’s talk some wide receivers!
To be honest, I was feeling much better about this year’s wideout crop two weeks ago. But the recent season-ending injuries to Jordy Nelson of Green Bay and Kelvin Benjamin of Carolina have badly hurt both the depth and star-quality of the position, putting an even bigger premium on the top two tiers of players.
In addition to the injuries suffered by Nelson and Benjamin, Chicago’s first-round draft pick, Kevin White, is out indefinitely with a stress fracture and their other star receiver, Alshon Jeffrey, is still in a walking boot as of this writing. Tampa Bay’s sophomore sensation Mike Evans is also dealing with a hamstring injury that could linger into the regular season. Both Jeffery and Evans are still consensus top-15 receivers, and White was expected to play a major role in the Bears’ offense in his rookie year.
With the recent rash of injuries, I’m far less willing to wait on a receiver than I otherwise might have been. Where, prior to the injuries, you could grab two running backs with your first two picks and still have a chance at snagging a falling A.J. Green or Randall Cobb as your top receiver, now those players are both firmly in the second round and you are more than likely left with T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, or DeAndre Hopkins as your #1.
Because of this, I’m definitely targeting a wide receiver with one of my first two picks with an eye on getting at least one of the players from the top two tiers. And, depending on where my pick lands in the second round and what receivers are still available, I’m more than happy to snag a second in the right situation.
These rankings are all done for a standard, not point-per-reception league. While my rankings would not change drastically, Cobb probably jumps into tier 2 for PPR after the Nelson injury, and Julian Edelman joins the group in tier 3 due to his status as Tom Brady’s security blanket.
So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the rankings:
Tier 1:
Antonio Brown – Pit
Dez Bryant – Dal
Julio Jones – Atl
Demaryius Thomas – Den
There are the big four, and then there is everyone else. Yes, there are a few players below who could crack this level, but these are the guys you can pencil in for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, minimum. These four have minimal red flags, excellent quarterbacks, and high-level production that warrant a low-end 1st or 2nd round pick.
While seeing Julio Jones among this group might be somewhat surprising, his raw talent combined with a Pro Bowl-level quarterback and a new offense that will absolutely be tailored to work around his skills leave me thoroughly convinced that he is in for an absolutely monster season.
Tier 2:
Calvin Johnson – Det
A.J. Green – Cin
Odell Beckham Jr. – NYG
These three all have the talent to jump up into the top tier, but all come with more risk than the players listed above. Johnson might still be the most physically gifted receiver in the league, but has struggled with injuries the last two seasons that have limited his effectiveness over a 16-game campaign.
A.J. Green has the unfortunate burden of having Andy Dalton as a quarterback, and also spent much of 2014 battling the injury bug. Odell Beckham, the human highlight reel, is probably the most difficult player at the position to rank. By talent and last season’s production alone, he could easily be the first receiver off the board. But he’s also performed at that level for exactly 12 NFL games, and has already demonstrated that he’s not immune to injury. While I don’t think he’ll maintain the pace he set last season (Jerry Rice didn’t have career numbers that good, just for a point of reference), I do think that if he stays healthy, he can approach the overall numbers he put up last season.
Even with those potential downsides, if any one of these three end up as my #1 receiver in the 2nd round, I’m happy, especially if I’m able to pair them with a tier 3 receiver.
Tier 3:
Randall Cobb – GB
Alshon Jeffery – Chi
Mike Evans – TB
T.Y. Hilton – Ind
DeAndre Hopkins – Hou
Brandin Cooks – NO
Look closely and you will see a ton of youth in this tier; not a single one of them is over 25 years old. While they go about it in much different ways, each has demonstrated an elite talent level and all are the focal point of their team’s attack. With that said, none have yet performed at a level that demands they be placed among the truly elite wideouts, hence their current placement.
I guarantee one or two out of this tier will have that breakout season, and those owners lucky enough to have them will be laughing all the way to the playoffs. My best bets? Cobb and, if he can remain healthy, Mike Evans. Hopkins simply won’t have the touchdowns available with Houston’s porous offense, Hilton is still too big-play dependent to put up strong numbers on a week-by-week basis, and Jeffrey’s calf injury terrifies me.
Cooks is the wild card in the group; if he and Brees find that connection, he could end up a rich man’s Marques Colston from a few years ago and throw up a 1,400 yard, 11 touchdown season. Remember, Colston had two seasons with Brees where he put up over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Cooks has speed and quickness that Colston could only dream of.
Tier 4:
Emmanuel Sanders – Den
Jordan Matthews – Phi
Julian Edelman – NE
Sammy Watkins – Buf
Davante Adams – GB
Keenan Allen – SD
I’m either too low or too high on probably every player in this tier; the difficult part is figuring out who should go where. Matthews and Sanders both certainly have the offense and the skills to jump up, but both have somewhat brittle quarterbacks that could drop their value like a rock should they go down.
Poor Sammy Watkins. On talent alone, he deserves to be sitting with the elites; unfortunately he’s stuck with a group of quarterbacks that not even Cleveland fans would get excited about.
Davante Adams is certainly a candidate to jump up based on opportunity alone. With Nelson’s injury in Green Bay, Adams steps into the highly lucrative role of being Aaron Rodgers’ #2 target. If Adams can put up even 80% of what Cobb did in the same role last year, fantasy owners will be thrilled.
Tier 5:
DeSean Jackson – Was
Amari Cooper – Oak
Brandon Marshall – NYJ
Jeremy Maclin – KC
Andre Johnson – Ind
I’m probably too low on DeSean Jackson, but his boom-or-bust nature is just too much for me. Add in the tire fire that is the Washington quarterback situation and I probably won’t be owning him in any league this year.
Cooper and Maclin are both intriguing; both are the unquestioned, #1 target on their respective teams and both are on teams with major offensive question marks. While Maclin probably won’t replicate his Philadelphia scoring in Kansas City, he’s probably going to put up better numbers than the 26th receiver, which is where he’s currently being drafted in ESPN leagues.
Tier 6:
Golden Tate – Det
Mike Wallace – Min
Jarvis Landry – Mia
Allen Robinson – Jac
Devin Funchess – Car
Martavis Bryant – Pit
Funchess and Bryant are interesting fliers once you get into the 30’s; Bryant went on a tear for a four-game stretch last year, and will probably end up being the #2 receiver on a very pass-happy team. Funchess has basically assumed the #1 receiver role in Carolina by default; if he can remotely approximate what Benjamin did as a rookie #1 last year, he’ll wildly outperform his current average draft position of 44th receiver taken and pick 121 overall.
Tier 7:
Nelson Agholor – Phi
Eric Decker – NYJ
Roddy White – Atl
Torrey Smith – SF
Michael Floyd – Ari
Charles Johnson – Min
John Brown – Ari
Agholor, Brown, and Charles Johnson are young players with some upside in this tier; other than that, ideally these are roster fillers in both 10-and-12 team leagues.
Tier 8:
Kendall Wright – Ten
Steve Smith Sr. – Bal
Eddie Royal – Chi
Larry Fitzgerald – Ari
Brandon LaFell – NE
Pierre Garcon – Was
Doug Baldwin – Sea
Marvin Jones – Cin
Brian Quick – StL
Anquan Boldin – SF
Cody Latimer – Den
Don’t sleep on Brian Quick; if he’s able to recover sufficiently from offseason shoulder surgery and start the season healthy, he could provide value far beyond the late-round pick required to get him. Also, Marvin Jones and Eddie Royal are both interesting lottery tickets this deep in the draft.
Injuries have already taken their toll on the wide receiver position and will probably continue to do so as the preseason winds down and the regular season begins. Be sure to update yourself before your draft; no one wants to be “that guy” (or gal) who takes Jordy Nelson with a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Instead, be the owner who snags Devante Adams in the 7th round; that’s the owner that, more than likely, will be lifting the trophy at the end of the season. Good luck, and come back tomorrow as we finish our preview with tight ends!
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