Fantasy Football forecast: QB’s

I am proud to present the first every Thoughts from the Darkside fantasy football forecast. Starting today, and once per week until the season begins (or until I get bored with it or too busy for it) I will be providing an in-depth fantasy football preview; with a Raiders twist of course.

This week’s article focuses on the most important position in all of sports; the one that the Raiders just turned over to Jason Campbell: the quarterback position.

Many of the fantasy experts believe there are seven elite quarterbacks heading into this year. Properly in most projections, those seven will be gone by the seventh round at the very latest in most fantasy drafts. The recurrent top seven (in my order) are:

• 1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)– was in total control of the fantasy points for the year with a whopping 327 total points. He led all QB’s in rushing yards and scored five ground TD’s in addition to his 33 through the air. The trouble is he took 50 sacks being a ball patter.
• 2. Drew Brees (NO)– the New Orleans Saints QB is an avid studier and it paid off in a big way last season. Brees finished the year with 280 fantasy points for the standard ESPN league which was second only to Green Bay Packers passer Aaron Rodgers. But take caution, Brees is the Madden cover boy this year, and there is something to this curse.
• 3. Peyton Manning (IND)– If you want a lot of passing, look no further than the Indy offense. Last year Manning set a career high with 393 completions. His 33 TD’s thru the air ties Rodgers, but he only added one rushing TD, which is above average for him by, well, one or so. Downside is he’s coming off of a minor neck surgery and he’s not getting any younger.
• 4. Tom Brady (NE)– Known around Raiders Nation as being New England’s (and perhaps the NFL’s) golden boy, Brady was not quite the same quarterback he was in 2007, but he did finish strong and managed to throw 30 TD’s. It remains to be seen if Brady can regain his previous championship form, so if you snag Brady, get a reliable back-up just in case.
• 5. Philip Rivers (SD)– Rivers is improving each year, regardless of who is carrying the ball behind him in the offense. This year he should top his mark of 27 TD passes in 2009 as he gets even more acclimated with Norv Turner’s pass heavy offense. It’s my opinion that he is this low on the list because of the current status of Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. If they come back, he could surpass Brady.
• 6. Matt Schaub (HOU)– This former Atlanta back-up has made a name for himself after stepping out of the shadow of Mike Vick, but he has had his fair share of injury issues. Nevertheless, Houston had a very good year last year (by their standards) and Schaub was instrumental.
• 7. Tony Romo (DAL)– Personally, it troubles me to add Romo to my top seven, but most experts consider him to be one of the “elite seven.” Last season he only fumbled six times, but that’s most likely the fluke, the two years before that he had a combined 23 fumbles. If Miles Austin goes down, Romo could have issues. Jason Witten is steady, but then Dez Bryant is just a rookie and Roy Williams is inconsistent. The ‘Boys running game could be their backbone.

Okay, so those are the “elites” in the league right now; the guys who generally make up the top five in all the different passing categories. One of my personal favorites who did not make the cut is the Giants’ Eli Manning. Peyton’s little brother has to prove he can get the job done effectively without WR Plaxico Burress. The Giants have some budding talent in their WR corps, but they are highly inexperienced outside of the so-so Steve Smith. Manning’s 27 passing TD’s with the young group tied him with Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo in spite of the young group he’s throwing to. I’d expect them to improve their game rather than declining, but the Giants are going to need help on their O-Line too as they were bothered by injuries last year.

After those eight, it gets sorted a bit. You have to consider guys like the Bears’ Jay Cutler, who will be working with Mike Martz this year, and Kevin Kolb, who takes over for the veteran Donovan McNabb with the Eagles. And certainly McNabb should be in this discussion as well as he attempts to prove that he can win when it matters most with a Redskins club. Brett Favre’s return to the Vikings could mix things up a bit as well.

So where does the Oakland Raider’s new quarterback rank?

Most likely in the very late rounds to undrafted range. Campbell’s numbers look impressive on paper, with his 110 plus rating in the redzone and now that he is throwing to Raiders TE Zach Miller. However, you have to consider him to be after guys like the Falcons’ Matt Ryan, the Ravens’ Joe Flacco, and the Dolphins’ Chad Henne. Not because he is a bad quarterback, but because he is in a highly suspect system.

If all goes well, the Raiders’ new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, will improve the offense. Heck, it would be hard not to improve them when they were ranked 29^th in the league last year and only threw for a combined 10 TD passes. Campbell, by himself, doubled the total of all three starters for Oakland last year, so that’s positive. Plus, Oakland has a young, talented, and motivated group of receivers for him to develop a bond with, as well as two very good receiving HB’s in Michael Bush and Darren McFadden.

Campbell has high odds to be a sleeper candidate, but just remember that sleepers go late in a fantasy draft, if at all.

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