Fantasy Football – Pick This, Not That

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With the regular season set to get underway September 3rd when the Green Bay Packers visit the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, the computers, laptops, and handhelds across the land will light up for the start of another fantasy football campaign.

What was once the idea of hobbyists and statisticians, fantasy sports is now a multi-billion dollar business. Most times bragging rights are all that is at stake, though some go for prizes or money or in certain bizarre cases, humiliation of their fallen foes.

With that in mind, it is good to have an edge over the competition. I have played the game for twelve years and have some players to snag, and players to leave on the board in order to bring your team a title.

TAKE: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET AVOID: Cam Newton, QB, CAR

Stafford finds himself in an odd situation this season. He has not done enough in the wins column to be elite, but his numbers are patently absurd. Along with Tony Romo, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler, Stafford needs to prove that this is the year. While he is no substitute for a Drew Brees or an Aaron Rodgers, the Detroit offense is entirely geared around airing the ball out, and Stafford has the best weapon in the league to do that with in Calvin Johnson. The addition of rookie pass magnet Eric Ebron can only help.

Meanwhile, Newton has the talent to be one of the best in the league, but the Carolina front office has given him nothing to work with. Old reliable Steve Smith is gone, and outside of tight end Greg Olsen, his receiving weapons are perennial third options such as Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery. Newton will need rookie Kelvin Benjamin to explode to have any hope of stopping teams from stacking eight and nine players in the box.

TAKE: Matt Forte, RB, CHI AVOID: Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA

The offensive system installed by Coach Marc Trestman did wonders last year for the formerly punchless Midway Monsters. Between Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett, the Bears have offensive options to spare. No one benefits more than Forte, who was never at home running into the middle of the line. His pass-catching skills have always been top notch, and he is quickly turning into Cutler’s favorite check down target. With that many options, someone has to be open, and Forte is the reliable one.

Lynch has certainly come a long way since his days in Buffalo, and he is one of the most feared power options in football. The problem with power options is the crazy amount of abuse they take. Lynch has carried the third most of any player in the NFL over the last three years, and his health may not be able to hold out with that many hits. Coach Pete Carroll may end up giving more carries to Robert Turbin to preserve Lynch’s health, a loss in points owners cannot take if they take Lynch in rounds one or two.

TAKE: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ AVOID: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, CHI

Strange to talk about Fitzgerald being a low choice option considering how much of a terror he was for his first ten years in the league. The lack of effective quarterback play in Arizona since the departure of Kurt Warner has been well chronicled, but do not sleep on Fitzgerald. At his best, he is still one of the five best receivers in the league, and he is ready to prove that dropping below 1,000 yards the last two years was not a long term issue.

On the other side, the fantasy world is abuzz about Jeffrey being the Anquan Boldin to Brandon Marshall’s Fitzgerald. While his numbers were fantastic last year, they came on limited scouting reports and Cutler targeting Marshall at a near record pace. With a full year of scouting on Jeffrey, expecting the third-year wideout to duplicate his success is asking way too much.

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