Once again, we reach the time of the year where an estimated 1 billion man hours will be wasted in the workplace, and football fans all around the world find themselves cheering for players they have never cheered for before and possibly never will again. It is time once again to watch games between Cleveland and Buffalo because C.J. Spiller is your running back. Time once again for Fantasy Football, the game once played only by sports statistic enthusiasts, and one of the newest billion-dollar industries.
The first preseason game is the Hall of Fame Game August 3rd between Miami and Dallas. Just in case you have not been preparing for your upcoming draft, rest assured that help is here. Here are some rules to help make your season as fun, and possibly as profitable, as possible.
RULE NUMBER ONE: Avoid players from your favorite team.
You may be a die-hard San Diego Chargers fan, but do you really think Phillip Rivers is going to outperform Robert Griffin or Tom Brady? Your view of your favorite team tends to cloud your judgment of players, and overrate or even underrate a player based on your personal biases. While picking a player from your favorite team when every metric has them as the best on the board is sound, reaching for your favorite players leads to disappointment.
Personal Experience: Picking Jay Cutler over Andrew Luck. Oops.
RULE NUMBER TWO: Quarterback is king.
Not more than seven years ago, the running back was the alpha and the omega of the fantasy world. You could pick LaDainian Tomlinson or Shaun Alexander and ride that pony to the title. However, when the NFL schemes shifted, Fantasy Football shifted with it. Of the top 10 players in Fantasy in 2012 (going by standard 10-team leagues), 9 of them were quarterbacks, with Adrian Peterson at number seven being the only exception. Even if you draft the top wide receiver and second best running back (in this case, we are talking about Calvin Johnson and Marshawn Lynch, respectively), if you don't have a quarterback, you could be throwing your season away.
RULE NUMBER THREE: Defenses and kickers can wait.
I should not have to say this one, but unfortunately every year, someone takes the Baltimore Ravens defense in the fourth round, or for years took Sebastian Janikowski in the fifth or sixth. The highest scoring defense last season (the Chicago Bears) was 26th and only because they scored a record ten touchdowns. The next highest was 39th. The highest scoring kicker was 51 (Blair Walsh). Until you reach the final quarter of the draft, building depth on your bench should take priority.
RULE NUMBER FOUR: Weigh the injury risk.
Ignoring injuries from a previous season can cause massive problems. Ignoring an extremely talented player because of injuries can cause equal problems. After his knee injury in the playoffs, selecting Robert Griffin number one would be quite a stretch, no? That said, if he is still on the board in the third round because everyone else saw the risk, you may be getting a top three quarterback for a third round choice. Weigh the risk of injury against where you are getting the player.
RULE NUMBER FIVE: Watch the carries from the year before.
What do Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, and Doug Martin have in common? They are the five running backs with over 300 carries last season. That makes them all large injury risks coming into this season, especially Peterson with his previous injury concerns, and Lynch with his high-impact, bowling ball running style. Drafting these players too high can result in disaster. Use Rule Number Four and pick wisely.
RULE NUMBER SIX: Have fun.
Too many people treat Fantasy Football like a life or death struggle. Enjoy your time with your league, enjoy the games on TV, and enjoy Fantasy Football.
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